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Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 15.
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Speech
The research-policy nexus: ZLB, JMCB and FOMC: remarks at the Conference Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Remarks at the Conference Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Report
The effectiveness of nonstandard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data
We assess the perception of professional forecasters regarding the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy measures announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Using survey data collected at the individual level, we analyze the change in forecasts of Treasury and corporate bond yields around the announcement dates of nonstandard monetary policy measures. We find that professional forecasters expect bond yields to drop significantly for at least one year after the announcement of accommodative policies.
Discussion Paper
What’s Driving Up Money Growth?
Two key monetary aggregates, M1 and M2, have grown quickly recently—especially M1, the narrow aggregate. In this post, we show that we can attribute most, but not all, of the recent high money growth rate of M1 to low current interest rates as well as the growth in bank reserves that has resulted from the Fed’s asset purchase programs. It’s unlikely that the current high growth rate will continue in the long term, however, as both low interest rates and the Fed’s expansion of bank reserves will likely be reversed as economic growth accelerates.
Discussion Paper
The Making of Fallen Angels—and What QE and Credit Rating Agencies Have to Do with It
Riskier firms typically borrow at higher rates than safer firms because investors require compensation for taking on more risk. However, since 2009 this relationship has been turned on its head in the massive BBB corporate bond market, with risky BBB-rated firms borrowing at lower rates than their safer BBB-rated peers. The resulting risk materialized in an unprecedented wave of “fallen angels” (or firms downgraded below the BBB investment-grade threshold) at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this post, based on a related Staff Report, we claim that this anomaly has been driven by a ...
Working Paper
Term Structure Modeling with Supply Factors and the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchase Programs
This paper estimates an arbitrage-free term structure model with both observable yield factors and Treasury and Agency MBS supply factors, and uses it to evaluate the term premium effects of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase programs. Our estimates show that the first and the second large-scale asset purchase programs and the maturity extension program jointly reduced the 10-year Treasury yield by about 100 basis points.
Journal Article
Has the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations Changed in the United States during the Past Decade?
The financial crisis and Great Recession led to dramatic shifts in U.S. monetary policy over the past decade, with potential implications for inflation expectations. Prior to the crisis, inflation expectations were well anchored. But during the crisis and recovery, the Federal Reserve turned to new policies such as large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs). In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee adopted a formal inflation target in 2012, with the stated goal of keeping longer-term inflation expectations stable. Did inflation expectations remain anchored during this period of unconventional ...
Speech
Comments on “A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed’s Balance Sheet”: remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City
Remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City.
Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies
After reaching the effective lower bound for the federal funds rate in late 2008, the Federal Reserve turned to two unconventional policy tools--quantitative easing and increasingly explicit and forward-leaning guidance for the future path of the federal funds rate--in order to provide additional monetary policy accommodation. We use survey data from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators to infer changes in private-sector perceptions of the implicit interest rate rule that the Federal Reserve would use following liftoff from the effective lower bound. Using our estimates of the changes over time ...
Working Paper
How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?
Event studies show that the Federal Reserve's announcements of forward guidance and large Scale asset purchases had large and desired effects on asset prices but they do not tell us how long such effects last. Wright (2012) used a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) to argue that unconventional policies have very transient effects on bond yields, with half-lives of 3 to 6 months. The present paper shows, however, that the SVAR is very possibly misspecified, structurally unstable, forecasts very poorly and therefore delivers spurious inference. In addition, the implied in-sample return ...
Working Paper
How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?
Event studies show that the Federal Reserve’s announcements of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases had large and desired effects on asset prices but these studies do not tell us how long such effects last. Wright (2012) used a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) to argue that unconventional policies have very transient effects on bond yields, with half-lives of 3 to 6 months. The present paper shows, however, that this inference is unsupported for several reasons. First, accounting for model uncertainty greatly lengthens the estimated persistence. Second, and more ...