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Journal Article
Asset Returns and Labor Force Participation During COVID-19
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2022-01-06)
Why did so many people retire during the pandemic?
Economic Synopses

Discussion Paper
What Has Driven the Labor Force Participation Gap since February 2020?
Amiti, Mary; Heise, Sebastian; Topa, Giorgio; Wu, Julia (2023-03-30)
The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) currently stands at 62.5 percent, 0.8 percentage point below its level in February 2020. This “participation gap” translates into 2.1 million workers out of the labor force. In this post, we evaluate three potential drivers of the gap: First, population aging from the baby boomers reaching retirement age puts downward pressure on participation. Second, the share of individuals of retirement age that are actually retired has risen since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, long COVID and disability more generally may induce more people ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230330

Journal Article
Why Are Workers Staying Out of the U.S. Labor Force?
Gregory, Victoria; Steinberg, Joel (2022-02-02)
Shifts in retirement and people taking care of family or the home appear to be behind the drop in labor market participation.
The Regional Economist

Are Higher Child Care Wages Affecting the Labor Supply?
Bick, Alexander; Gregory, Victoria; Leukhina, Oksana (2023-07-11)
An analysis suggests that a rebound in labor force participation among women with a partner and child could have been stronger during the pandemic if not dampened by child care costs.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Men’s Falling Labor Force Participation across Generations
Bengali, Leila; Duzhak, Evgeniya A.; Zhao, Cindy (2023-10-10)
The labor force participation rate for prime-age men has been declining for decades. About 14% of millennial males at age 25 are not in the labor force, compared with 7% of baby boomer males when they were that age. This generational gap declines substantially as groups approach middle age; the decline reflects that younger millennials enrolled in postsecondary education at higher rates and moved into the workforce later than prior generations. The convergence for millennial males suggests that the trend of men’s higher nonparticipation rates may slow in the future.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 06 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Cost of Childcare Increasingly Weighs on Labor Force Engagement
McCoy, John (2024-10-09)
Problems attaining childcare have weighed on workers’ engagement in the labor force for some time. Afew years ago, pandemic disruptions were the primary culprit in the lower consumption of childcareservices. Now, the rising cost of childcare may be to blame. As wage growth moderates, higher childcarecosts could place added pressure on households and cause some workers to at least partially disengagefrom the workforce.
Economic Bulletin

Discussion Paper
Conclusion: How Low Will the Unemployment Rate Go?
Potter, Simon M.; McCarthy, Jonathan; Sahin, Aysegul (2012-04-02)
A major theme of the posts in our labor market series has been that the outflows from unemployment, either into employment or out of the labor force, have been the primary determinant of unemployment rate dynamics in long expansions. The key to the importance of outflows is that within long expansions there have not been adverse shocks that lead to a burst of job losses. To illustrate the power of this mechanism, we presented simulations in a previous post that were based on the movements in the outflow and inflow rates in the previous three expansions. These simulated paths show the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120402

Speech
Bullard Discusses U.S. Economy with District Business Leaders
Bullard, James B. (2021-11-18)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard participated in a virtual discussion with business leaders and bankers from Seymour, Ind., and other areas of Jackson County, Ind. During the event, which was hosted by the St. Louis Fed’s Louisville Branch, he addressed questions on inflationary pressures in 2021, supply chain disruptions, labor force participation, a potential housing bubble, infrastructure spending, the national debt and other topics.Bullard meets regularly with groups in the four zones that make up the St. Louis Fed’s District to share insights on the U.S. economy, as well as to ...
Speech

Journal Article
To Retire or Keep Working after a Pandemic?
Miskanic, Brandon E.; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Zhao, Cindy (2024-03-25)
Workers age 55 and older left the labor force in large numbers following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Four years later, participation within this age group has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, despite the strongest labor market in decades. This has resulted in an estimated shortfall of nearly 2 million workers. Analysis shows that the participation shortfall is concentrated among workers in this age group without a college degree and can be explained by increased and growing retirement rates for this group, above pre-pandemic trends.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 08 , Pages 5

Single Mothers Face Difficulties with Slim Financial Cushions
Kent, Ana Hernández (2022-05-09)
During the COVID-19 recession, single mothers faced high unemployment and were more likely to exit the labor force than single fathers and women without children.
On the Economy

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