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Speech
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
Daly, Mary C. (2022-04-20)
Presentation to the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) Spring Outlook 2022,April 20, 2022, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Journal Article
GDP Decline, Inflation Heighten Uncertainty in U.S. Economic Outlook
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2022-05-25)
The U.S. GDP outlook weakened in the first quarter of 2022 amid higher inflation, but demand remained solid for goods, services and labor.
The Regional Economist

Market-Based Measures of Inflation Risks
McCracken, Michael W.; Amburgey, Aaron (2021-03-24)
Forecasts typically focus on estimates of expected inflation, but some forecasts look at the probability of different inflation rates in the future.
On the Economy

Speech
Monetary policy in a low inflation and low unemployment economy: remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York, May 21, 2019
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-05-21)
Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren explored the current economic environment, characterized by low unemployment and lower-than-target inflation ? which are somewhat opposing signals for monetary policymakers.
Speech , Paper 144

Working Paper
Inflation and the Gig Economy: Have the Rise of Online Retailing and Self-Employment Disrupted the Phillips Curve?
Duca, John V. (2018-11-16)
During the recovery from the Great Recession, inflation did not reach the central bank?s 2 percent objective as quickly as many models had predicted. This coincided with increases in online shopping, which arguably made retail markets more contestable and damped retail inflation. This hypothesis is tested using data on the online share of retail sales, which are incorporated into an econometric model. Results imply that the rise of online retail has flattened the Phillips Curve, reducing the sensitivity of inflation to unemployment rate changes. Improvement in fit from just including the ...
Working Papers , Paper 1814

Eighth District Businesses Report Stronger Inflationary Pressures
Gascon, Charles S. (2022-03-31)
In a February survey, 43% of regional firms reported implementing price increases to customers that were higher than what they had originally planned.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Why Are Headline PCE and Median PCE Inflations So Far Apart?
Carroll, Daniel R.; Cohen-Kristiansen, Ross (2020-10-02)
Mean (or headline) PCE inflation has typically fallen below median PCE inflation, and since 2012 the difference has been large. To understand the reasons for this trend, we investigate which components of the headline measure are contributing to the difference. We find that energy components, which frequently undergo wide price swings, and electronics, which have been steadily decreasing in price for decades, explain most of the difference between the two inflation measures. We argue that the outsized impacts of such components on headline PCE inflation reinforce the need for policymakers to ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 24 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Why Removing Monetary Policy Accommodation Is Necessary
Bullard, James B. (2022-03-29)
Citing a strong real economy and inflation that is well above target, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discusses the need to remove monetary policy accommodation.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
Higher-Than-Expected Inflation, Delta Variant Could Slow Real GDP Growth
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2021-08-27)
The U.S. economic expansion has shown rapid growth, solid job gains and falling unemployment, but rising inflation pressures and the COVID-19 Delta variant could interfere.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts
Bennett, Julie; Owyang, Michael T. (2022)
Inflation expectations constitute important components of macroeconomic models and monetary policy rules. We investigate the relative performance of consumer, professional, market-based, and model-based inflation forecasts. Consistent with the previous literature, professional forecasts most accurately predict one-year-ahead year-over-year inflation. Both consumers and professionals overestimate inflation over their respective sample periods. Market-based forecasts as measured by the swap market breakeven inflation rates significantly overestimate actual inflation; Treasury ...
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 2 , Pages 131-148

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