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The Russian Invasion, Oil and Gasoline Prices, and Recession
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has substantially increased commodity prices, increasing risk to global economic activity.
Long-Term Trends in Gasoline Prices
Average annual CPI inflation from 1990 to 2021 was 2.4%, while average annual gasoline price inflation was 3.9%.
Gasoline Prices Unlikely to Bring Down Inflation in 2023
Gasoline prices can influence inflation both directly (by changing prices at the pump) and indirectly (by shaping consumers’ inflation expectations). Through these channels, gasoline prices have played an important role in the run-up and recent decline in inflation. Although gasoline prices have declined from their all-time highs, they are expected to remain relatively stable in 2023. As a result, gasoline prices are unlikely to deliver further reductions in either inflation or inflation expectations this year.