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Discussion Paper
More Than Meets the Eye: Some Fiscal Implications of Monetary Policy
Remache, Julie; Del Negro, Marco; McAndrews, James J. (2013-08-15)
In 2012, the Fed’s remittances to the U.S. Treasury amounted to $88.4 billion. The vast majority of these remittances originated as income from the SOMA portfolio (see the second post in this series for an account of the history of SOMA income). While net income has been high in recent years because of the Fed’s large balance sheet, it is likely to drop in the future as the Fed normalizes interest rates. This is because the Fed will likely face increased interest expense on its reserve balances and possibly realize losses in the case of asset sales. A recent paper by economists at the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130815

Speech
We Can’t Afford Not To
Daly, Mary C. (2020-06-15)
Virtual Event at The National Press Club, by Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June 15, 2020.
Speech

Working Paper
Consumption and Hours between the United States and France
Fang, Lei; Yang, Fang (2021-01-29)
We document large differences between the United States and France in allocations of consumption expenditures and time by age. Using a life-cycle model, we quantify to what extent tax and transfer programs and market and home productivity can account for the differences. We find that while labor efficiency by age and home-production productivity are crucial in accounting for the differences in the allocation of time, the consumption tax and social security are more important regarding allocation of expenditures. Adopting the U.S. consumption tax decreases welfare in France, and adopting the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-7

Working Paper
The Road of Federal Infrastructure Spending Passes Through the States
Leduc, Sylvain; Wilson, Daniel J. (2022-02-01)
Because federal infrastructure spending largely takes the form of grants to state governments, the macroeconomic impact of such packages depends on the share of federal grants that “passes through” to actual infrastructure spending done by states. A low degree of pass-through would tend to mute the economic impact from federal grants, reflecting a crowd-out effect on state spending. We first revisit Knight’s (2002) influential finding of near-zero pass-through (perfect crowd out) of federal highway grants. That result is found to be specification-sensitive and is reversed completely in ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-03

Working Paper
Optimal time-consistent government debt maturity
Debortoli, Davide; Yared, Pierre; Nunes, Ricardo (2016-05-17)
The current literature on a government's optimal debt maturity structure contends that by purchasing short-term assets and selling long-term debt, it is possible to fully insulate the economy against fiscal shocks. The required short and long positions are large relative to GDP and constant. The market value of debt adjusts automatically and the constant debt positions and fluctuating bond prices insulate against potential shocks. However, achieving the goal of averting future shocks depends on the government perfectly committing to the future fiscal policy, for without this sustained ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-4

Report
Global price of risk and stabilization policies
Vogt, Erik; Adrian, Tobias; Stackman, Daniel (2016-08-01)
We estimate a highly significant price of risk that forecasts global stock and bond returns as a nonlinear function of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). We show that countries? exposure to the global price of risk is related to macroeconomic risks as measured by output, credit, and inflation volatility, the magnitude of financial crises, and stock and bond market downside risk. Higher exposure to the global price of risk corresponds to both higher output volatility and higher output growth. We document that the transmission of the global price of risk to macroeconomic outcomes is mitigated by ...
Staff Reports , Paper 786

Newsletter
Sin Taxes: The Sobering Fiscal Reality
Wetmore, Sarah; Mattoon, Richard H. (2015)
On April 2, 2015, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Civic Federation held a forum to examine the use and efficacy of so-called sin taxes (e.g., taxes on alcohol, tobacco and gambling) levied by state and local governments.
Chicago Fed Letter

Speech
The Economy in the Time of Coronavirus
Williams, John C. (2020-05-21)
Remarks at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Discussion Paper
Consumers Increasingly Expect Additional Government Support amid COVID-19 Pandemic
Koşar, Gizem; Smith, Kyle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-05-26)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its April 2020 SCE Public Policy Survey, which provides information on consumers' expectations regarding future changes to a wide range of fiscal and social insurance policies and the potential impact of these changes on their households. These data have been collected every four months since October 2015 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, households face significant uncertainty about their personal situations and the general economic environment when forming ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200526b

Working Paper
Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2019-12-20)
We study the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR. Using novel identifying strategies and evaluation methods, we examine seven questions. First, how much have exogenous shocks to the SPR contributed to the variability in the real price of oil? Second, how much would a one-time exogenous reduction in the SPR lower the real price of oil? Third, are exogenous SPR releases partially or fully offset by increases ...
Working Papers , Paper 1916

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