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Discussion Paper
The Term Spread as a Predictor of Financial Instability
Parker, Dean; Schularick, Moritz (2021-11-24)
The term spread is the difference between interest rates on short- and long-dated government securities. It is often referred to as a predictor of the business cycle. In particular, inversions of the yield curve—a negative term spread—are considered an early warning sign. Such inversions typically receive a lot of attention in policy debates when they occur. In this post, we point to another property of the term spread, namely its predictive ability for financial crisis events, both internationally and in historical U.S. data. We study the predictive power of the term spread for financial ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211124

Journal Article
The Fed's \\"Tequila Crisis\\"
Sablik, Timothy (2017-01)
A financial crisis in Mexico in the mid-1990s sparked a debate about the Fed's role in international markets and its independence
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 3-5

Journal Article
Stability of funding models: an analytical framework
Yorulmazer, Tanju; Eisenbach, Thomas M.; McAndrews, James J.; Keister, Todd (2014-02)
With the recent financial crisis, many financial intermediaries experienced strains created by declining asset values and a loss of funding sources. In reviewing these stress events, one notices that some arrangements appear to have been more stable?that is, better able to withstand shocks to their asset values and/or funding sources?than others. Because the precise determinants of this stability are not well understood, gaining a better grasp of them is a critical task for market participants and policymakers as they try to design more resilient arrangements and improve financial regulation. ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Feb , Pages 29-47

Working Paper
Fiscal Multipliers and Financial Crises
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-05)
What type of fiscal policy is most effective during a financial crisis? I study the macroeconomic effects of the US fiscal policy response to the Great Recession, accounting not only for standard tools such as government purchases and transfers but also for financial sector interventions such as bank recapitalizations and credit guarantees. A nonlinear quantitative model calibrated to the US allows me to study the state-dependent effects of different types of fiscal policies. I combine the model with data on the US fiscal policy response to find that the fall in aggregate consumption would ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-023

Discussion Paper
The Odd Behavior of Repo Haircuts during the Financial Crisis
Copeland, Adam; Martin, Antoine (2012-09-17)
Since the financial crisis began, there’s been substantial debate on the role of haircuts in U.S. repo markets. (The haircut is the value of the collateral in excess of the value of the cash exchanged in the repo; see our blog post for more on repo markets.) In an influential paper, Gorton and Metrick show that haircuts increased rapidly during the crisis, a phenomenon they characterize as a general “run on repo.” Consequently, some policymakers and academics have considered whether regulating haircuts might help stabilize the repo markets, for example, by setting a minimum level so ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120917

Working Paper
Who Provides Credit in Times of Crisis? Evidence from the Auto Loan Market
Canals-Cerda, Jose J.; Lee, Brian Jonghwan (2025-02-05)
We examine the contribution of different lending channels to the auto loan market in times of crisis. Specifically, we explore lending from traditional banks, credit unions, and finance companies (nonbanks) over the past two decades, with an emphasis on the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that banks provided weak support during the pandemic, thus losing market share and continuing the trend that emerged following the Great Recession. Nonbank market share during this period grew most significantly for subprime borrowers and in counties with stronger bank dependence. Survey ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-06

Journal Article
Assessing the costs and consequences of the 2007–09 financial crisis and its aftermath
Rosenblum, Harvey; Luttrell, David; Atkinson, Tyler (2013-09)
There are few estimates of what society gave up due to the crisis: Our conservative estimate is $50,000 to $120,000 for every U.S. household.
Economic Letter , Volume 8 , Issue 7

Working Paper
Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System
Palumbo, Michael G.; Lee, Seung Jung; Warusawitharana, Missaka; Aikman, David; Kiley, Michael T. (2015-06-24)
We provide a framework for assessing the build-up of vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system. We collect forty-four indicators of financial and balance-sheet conditions, cutting across measures of valuation pressures, nonfinancial borrowing, and financial-sector health. We place the data in economic categories, track their evolution, and develop an algorithmic approach to monitoring vulnerabilities that can complement the more judgmental approach of most official-sector organizations. Our approach picks up rising imbalances in the U.S. financial system through the mid-2000s, presaging ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-59

Working Paper
The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy
Justiniano, Alejandro; Tambalotti, Andrea; Primiceri, Giorgio E. (2013-11-29)
We use a quantitative equilibrium model with houses, collateralized debt and foreign borrowing to study the impact of global imbalances on the U.S. economy in the 2000s. Our results suggest that the dynamics of foreign capital flows account for between one fourth and one third of the increase in U.S. house prices and household debt that preceded the financial crisis. The key to these findings is that the model generates the sustained low level of interest rates observed over that period.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-17

Speech
Unprecedented Times in our Economy
Evans, Charles L. (2008-10-17)
Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Fond du Lac Area Association of Commerce Fond du Lac, WI
Speech , Paper 21

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