Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
A DSGE Model Including Trend Information and Regime Switching at the ZLB
Gelain, Paolo; Lopez, Pierlauro (2023-12-27)
This paper outlines the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland as part of the suite of models used for forecasting and policy analysis by Cleveland Fed researchers, which we have nicknamed CLEMENTINE (CLeveland Equilibrium ModEl iNcluding Trend INformation and the Effective lower bound). This document adopts a practitioner's guide approach, detailing the construction of the model and offering practical guidance on its use as a policy tool designed to support decision-making through forecasting exercises and policy counterfactuals.
Working Papers , Paper 23-35

Discussion Paper
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Survey Goals, Design and Content
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Topa, Giorgio (2013-12-04)
Starting in the first quarter of 2014, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) will begin reporting findings from a new national survey designed to elicit consumers? expectations for a wide range of household-level and aggregate economic and financial conditions. This week, we provide an introduction to the new survey in a series of four blog posts. In this first post, we discuss the overall objectives of the new survey, its sample design, and content. In the posts that follow, we will provide further details and present preliminary findings from the survey on three broad categories of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131204b

Discussion Paper
Consumers’ Perspectives on the Recent Movements in Inflation
Aidala, Felix; Armantier, Olivier; Boumahdi, Fatima; Koşar, Gizem; Lall, Devon; Somerville, Jason; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2023-08-17)
Inflation in the U.S. has experienced unusually large movements in the last few years, starting with a steep rise between the spring of 2021 and June 2022, followed by a relatively rapid decline over the past twelve months. This marks a stark departure from an extended period of low and stable inflation. Economists and policymakers have expressed differing views about which factors contributed to these large movements (as reported in the media here, here, here, and here), leading to fierce debates in policy circles, academic journals, and the press. We know little, however, about the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230817

Working Paper
Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael (2022-06-23)
Using a novel experimental setup, we study the direction of causality between consumers’ inflation expectations and their income growth expectations. In a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we find that the rate of passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth is incomplete, on the order of 20 percent. There is no statistically significant effect going in the other direction. Passthrough varies systematically with demographic and socioeconomic factors, with greater passthrough for higher-income individuals than lower-income individuals, although it is ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-21

Speech
The Longer-Run Framework: A Look Ahead
Williams, John C. (2020-10-07)
Remarks at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Virtual Series: The Road Ahead for Central Banks (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Discussion Paper
Not Just “Stimulus” Checks: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt
Koşar, Gizem; Melcangi, Davide; Pilossoph, Laura; Wiczer, David (2023-06-27)
Households frequently use stimulus checks to pay down existing debt. In this post, we discuss the empirical evidence on this marginal propensity to repay debt (MPRD), and we present new findings using the Survey of Consumer Expectations. We find that households with low net wealth-to-income ratios were more prone to use transfers from the CARES Act of March 2020 to pay down debt. We then show that standard models of consumption-saving behavior can be made consistent with these empirical findings if borrowers’ interest rates rise with debt. Our model suggests that fiscal policy may face a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230627

Report
How do college students form expectations?
Zafar, Basit (2009-07-01)
This paper focuses on how college students form expectations about various major-specific outcomes. For this purpose, I collect a panel data set of Northwestern University undergraduates that contains their subjective expectations about major-specific outcomes. Although students tend to be overconfident about their future academic performance, they revised their expectations in expected ways. The updating process is found to be consistent with a Bayesian learning model. I show that learning plays a role in the decision to switch majors, and that major-switchers respond to information from ...
Staff Reports , Paper 378

Working Paper
Fiscal Expansions in the Era of Low Real Interest Rates
Garga, Vaishali (2020-04-01)
Low natural real interest rates limit the power of monetary policy to revive the economy due to the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Fiscal stabilization via higher government debt is frequently recommended as a policy to raise the natural real interest rate. This paper builds a non-Ricardian framework to study the tradeoffs associated with a debt-financed fiscal expansion and show that even in a low real interest rate environment, higher debt doesn’t necessarily raise the real interest rate. The effect of the expansion is non-monotonic: Increasing debt raises the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-11

Discussion Paper
How Do People Revise Their Inflation Expectations?
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2016-08-22)
The New York Fed started releasing results from its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) three years ago, in June 2013. The SCE is a monthly, nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads. Its goal, as described in a series of Liberty Street Economics posts, is to collect timely and high-quality information on consumer expectations about a broad range of topics, covering both macroeconomic variables and the households' own situation. In this post, we look at what drives changes in consumer inflation expectations. Do people respond to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160822

Discussion Paper
Coronavirus Outbreak Sends Consumer Expectations Plummeting
Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Topa, Giorgio; Skandalis, Daphne; Smith, Kyle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Pomerantz, Rachel (2020-04-06)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its March 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which provides information on consumers' economic expectations and behavior. In particular, the survey covers respondents’ views on how income, spending, inflation, credit access, and housing and labor market conditions will evolve over time. The March survey, which was fielded between March 2 and 31, records a substantial deterioration in financial and economic expectations, including sharp declines in household income and spending growth expectations. As ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200406b

show more (51)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords