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Keywords:expectations 

Working Paper
No Firm Is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms’ Expectations

We study how firms’ expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industry-specific conditions using a survey of French manufacturing firms. We document an important new stylized fact. In response to industry-level shocks that have no aggregate effects, firms’ aggregate expectations respond persistently. This is consistent with “island” models in which firms use the local prices they observe to make inferences about broader aggregate conditions. We then assess the extent to which these patterns are related to observable characteristics of firms and the industries in ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-17

Working Paper
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23

Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, but only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2116

Speech
Living Life Near the ZLB

Remarks at 2019 Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA), New York City.
Speech , Paper 327

Discussion Paper
Consumers Increasingly Expect Additional Government Support amid COVID-19 Pandemic

The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its April 2020 SCE Public Policy Survey, which provides information on consumers' expectations regarding future changes to a wide range of fiscal and social insurance policies and the potential impact of these changes on their households. These data have been collected every four months since October 2015 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, households face significant uncertainty about their personal situations and the general economic environment when forming ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200526b

Speech
A Time of Uncertainty

Remarks at Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies 2022 Spring Symposium, Princeton, New Jersey.
Speech

Working Paper
Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?

We study the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR. Using novel identifying strategies and evaluation methods, we examine seven questions. First, how much have exogenous shocks to the SPR contributed to the variability in the real price of oil? Second, how much would a one-time exogenous reduction in the SPR lower the real price of oil? Third, are exogenous SPR releases partially or fully offset by increases ...
Working Papers , Paper 1916

Discussion Paper
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Labor Market Expectations

In the previous two blog postings in this series, we described the goals, structure, and content of the new FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and presented some findings regarding inflation expectations. In this third posting, we focus on the labor market component of the SCE.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131205

Discussion Paper
Amid the COVID-19 Outbreak, Consumers Temper Spending Outlook

The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its April 2020 SCE Household Spending Survey, which provides information on consumers' experiences and expectations regarding household spending. These data have been collected every four months since December 2014 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Given the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, the April survey, which was fielded between April 2 and 30, unsurprisingly shows a number of sharp changes in consumers’ spending behavior and outlook, which we review in this post.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200507b

Working Paper
Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts

The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline) is based on testing the null hypothesis of a zero slope coefficient in a static single-equation regression model fit to aggregate data. Given that the regressor in this model is not stationary, the null distribution of the t-test statistic is nonstandard, invalidating the use of the normal approximation. Once the critical values are adjusted, these regressions provide no support for the conventional wisdom. Using a new structural vector regression model, however, we ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025

Speech
The Longer-Run Framework: A Look Ahead

Remarks at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Virtual Series: The Road Ahead for Central Banks (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

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