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Discussion Paper
How Did State Reopenings Affect Small Businesses?

In our previous post, we looked at the effects that the reopening of state economies across the United States has had on consumer spending. We found a significant effect of reopening, especially regarding spending in restaurants and bars as well as in the healthcare sector. In this companion post, we focus specifically on small businesses, using two different sources of high-frequency data, and we employ a methodology similar to that of our previous post to study the effects of reopening on small business activity along various dimensions. Our results indicate that, much like for consumer ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200921

Journal Article
Investing to Create Good Jobs

A growing number of foundation, nonprofit, and for-profit investors are making investments for measurable social and environmental impact as well as financial return. The ?impact investing? field includes a few investors that are investing in businesses specifically to create jobs for unemployed and underemployed residents. These investors also provide ongoing assistance to owners of the businesses to create ?good quality jobs,? which generally provide income above the minimum wage, health benefits, and training and opportunities for workers to move into positions with higher wages. Three ...
Cascade , Volume 4

Journal Article
Education and the Evolution of Earnings Across Population Groups Since 2000

By nearly all macroeconomic measures, the US economy is in good shape: unemployment is low, jobs growth is steady, inflation is stable, and GDP has expanded uninterrupted for 10 years?the longest expansion in US history. The good news from the aggregate data means that most people are in the best economic position they have been in for some time. But by definition, aggregate data cannot tell us whether an overall good economy is benefitting some population groups more than others. This article disaggregates the good news in the macrodata by tracking the fortunes of a variety of population ...
Profitwise , Issue 5 , Pages 1-13

Spatial Wage Gaps and Frictional Labor Markets

We develop a job-ladder model with labor reallocation across firms and space, which we design to leverage matched employer-employee data to study differences in wages and labor productivity across regions. We apply our framework to data from Germany: twenty-five years after the reunification, real wages in the East are still 26 percent lower than those in the West. We find that 60 percent of the wage gap is due to labor being paid a higher wage per efficiency unit in West Germany, and quantify three distinct barriers that prevent East Germans from migrating west to obtain a higher wage: ...
Staff Reports , Paper 898

Using Data to Show When Recessions End

Could weekly data—such as the Weekly Economic Index—be used in calculating when recessions end, in addition to monthly and quarterly data?
On the Economy

Journal Article
The Role of Equitable Transit-Oriented Development in Promoting Economic Opportunity

Debate still exists in economics and other fields as to the impact of transit accessibility on finding and maintaining a good-paying job. This article provides an overview of equitable transit-oriented development (TOD), its effects on economic outcomes for low-skilled workers, and a brief discussion of policy solutions for practitioners to consider.
Cascade , Volume 3

Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook

Remarks at Euromoney Real Return XIII: The Inflation-Linked Products Conference 2019, New York City.
Speech , Paper 328

Journal Article
BankWork$ Gives Underemployed Residents Access to Entry-Level Banking Positions

Low-income residents facing employment barriers are obtaining entry-level job opportunities in the banking industry through a program launched 10 years ago in Los Angeles. The program, BankWork$, is undergoing a planned national replication.
Cascade , Volume 3

Working Paper
Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy

The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on reported job search activity. We assess potential unemployment paths based on historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique features of the virus economy. The possible paths vary widely, but absent ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-18

Who Holds a Green Card?

Understanding the characteristics of U.S. permanent residents can provide insight into the future workforce.
On the Economy



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