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Jobs Hardest Hit by the Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has substantially affected labor markets. Which industries and occupations had the largest employment declines between February and April?
On the Economy

Working Paper
Flexible prices, labor market frictions, and the response of employment to technology shocks

Recent empirical evidence establishes that a positive technology shock leads to a decline in labor inputs. Can a flexible price model enriched with labor market frictions replicate this stylized fact? We develop and estimate a standard flexible price model using Bayesian methods that allows, but does not require, labor market frictions to generate a negative response of employment to a technology shock. We find that labor market frictions account for the fall in labor inputs.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-16

Discussion Paper
Where Are Manufacturing Jobs Coming Back?

As we outlined in our previous post, the United States lost close to sixmillion manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010 but since then has gained back almost one million. In this post, we take a closer look at the geographic dimension of this modest rebound in manufacturing jobs. While job losses during the 2000s were fairly widespread across the country, manufacturing employment gains since then have been concentrated in particular parts of the country. Indeed, these gains were especially large in ?auto alley??a narrow motor vehicle production corridor stretching from Michigan south to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190206b

Perspectives on the Eventual Economic Recovery

The past year with the pandemic has been grueling. Eleven months after the initial outbreak, economic outcomes for individuals and businesses still remain closely tied to finding and implementing effective public health policy. However, with the successful development of multiple vaccines, it is now possible to imagine much better macroeconomic outcomes ahead. My view is that policymakers must work to ensure that the benefits of the eventual recovery are widely shared. As I’ve mentioned, I believe that as we think about recovery from the pandemic, we should take the time to look for ways ...

Journal Article
Middle-skill jobs lost in U.S. labor market polarization

The number of people performing low-skill, low-pay, manual labor tasks has grown along with the number undertaking high-skill, high-pay, nonroutine, principally problem-solving jobs.
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 5 , Pages 1-4

Reading the Recovery

Remarks at Council on Foreign Relations (delivered via videoconference).

Using Data to Show When Recessions End

Could weekly data—such as the Weekly Economic Index—be used in calculating when recessions end, in addition to monthly and quarterly data?
On the Economy

Bad credit, no problem? Credit and labor market consequences of bad credit reports

Credit reports are used in nearly all consumer lending decisions and, increasingly, in hiring decisions in the labor market, but the impact of a bad credit report is largely unknown. We study the effects of credit reports on financial and labor market outcomes using a difference-in-differences research design that compares changes in outcomes over time for Chapter 13 filers, whose personal bankruptcy flags are removed from credit reports after seven years, to changes for Chapter 7 filers, whose personal bankruptcy flags are removed from credit reports after ten years. Using credit bureau ...
Staff Reports , Paper 795

Journal Article
Workforce Development: Engaging Employers

Leaders of a community college, the YouthBuild charter school, and a public career and technical institute speaking on a Reinventing Our Communities conference panel addressed the need to forge stronger connections between high school and postsecondary education or employment, especially for ?opportunity youth? who are neither employed nor in school
Cascade , Volume 4

Journal Article
Seasonal and Business Cycles of U.S. Employment

The authors document several facts about the seasonality of U.S. employment, including its marked decline since the 1960s. In addition, they find there is little evidence that industries or states that are more seasonal are also more sensitive to the business cycle, contrary to some previous studies.
Economic Perspectives , Issue 3 , Pages 1-28



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