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Working Paper
The S-curve: Understanding the Dynamics of Worldwide Financial Liberalization
Using a novel database of domestic financial reforms in 90 countries from 1973 to 2014, we document that global financial liberalization followed an S-curve path: reforms were slow and gradual in early periods, accelerated during the 1990s, and slowed down after 2000. We estimate a learning model that explains these dynamics. Policymakers updated their beliefs about the growth effects of financial reforms by learning from their own and other countries' experiences. Positive growth surprises in advanced economies helped accelerate belief updating worldwide, leading to the global wave of ...
Speech
The New Stone Soup
Remarks at the Iveagh House Lecture, Dublin, Ireland, by Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, February 10, 2020.
Speech
A Serenity Prayer for Monetary Policymakers: Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - The Global Interdependence Center, Central Banking Series, Singapore - February 20, 2017
Rather than provide a standard economic outlook talk, I?d like to speak about a challenge that monetary policymakers face in the aftermath of the financial crisis and Great Recession. That challenge is managing expectations. When we think about expectations in the context of monetary policy, we usually mean expectations about inflation or expectations about the future path of policy. But today, what I mean is managing expectations about the role monetary policy can play in promoting a healthy economy. While I?ll focus on the Federal Reserve, I believe a similar challenge applies to central ...
Journal Article
The Role of Transportation in Fostering Economic Mobility in Northeastern Pennsylvania
The Scranton Area Community Foundation (SACF), founded 63 years ago to promote change and growth in northeastern Pennsylvania, embarked on a series of community discussions more than a year ago to elicit information about the region?s opportunities for economic growth
Journal Article
Industry clusters and economic development in the Seventh District’s largest cities
In works such as Glaeser (2011) and Porter (1995), prominent economists have suggested that metropolitan areas are the key to economic growth. In this article, we examine the economic development strategies and performance of the largest metropolitan areas in the five states of the Seventh Federal Reserve District? Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The cities, from smallest to largest by metro population, are: Des Moines, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Chicago. Theory suggests that cities that promote industry agglomeration (clusters) should be best positioned for ...
Speech
Fulfilling our economic potential: remarks at the Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development 2019 Annual Conference, New York City
Remarks at the Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development 2019 Annual Conference, New York City.
Discussion Paper
Okun’s Law and Long Expansions
Economic forecasters frequently use a simple rule of thumb called Okun's law to link their real GDP growth forecasts to their unemployment rate forecasts. While they recognize that temporary deviations from Okun's law may occur, forecasters often assume that sustained reductions in the unemployment rate require robust GDP growth. However, our analysis suggests that Okun's law has not been a consistently reliable tool for predicting the size of declines in the unemployment rate during the last three expansions—a finding that reflects the impact of changes in the labor market since the early ...
Report
Combinatorial Growth with Physical Constraints: Evidence from Electronic Miniaturization
In the past sixty years, transistor sizes and weights have decreased by 50 percent every eighteen months, following Moore’s Law. Smaller and lighter electronics have increased productivity in virtually every industry and spurred the creation of entirely new sectors of the economy. However, while the effect of the increasing quality of computers and electronics on GDP has been widely studied, the question of how electronic miniaturization affects economic growth has been unexplored. To quantify the effect of electronic miniaturization on GDP, this paper builds an economic growth model that ...
Journal Article
Tackling Inequality in Our Cities
We live in a world in which the rising tide of economic growth no longer lifts all boats. Research by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has shown that the last 30 years have seen people at the top of the economic ladder pulling away from those at the bottom. Today, the average income of the richest 10 percent in the OECD is around 9.5 times that of the poorest 10 percent, up from just 7 times 25 years ago. Over the same period, the Gini coefficient, a commonly used measure of inequality, increased on average by some 10 percent in 21 OECD countries, from 0.29 to ...
Working Paper
Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis
We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables?defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual ...