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Keywords:economic forecasting 

Journal Article
Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve

The slope of the Treasury yield curve is a popular recession predictor with an excellent track record. The two most common alternative measures of the slope typically move together but have diverged recently, making the resulting recession signals unclear. Economic arguments and empirical evidence, including its more accurate predictions, favor the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury securities. Recession probabilities for the next year derived from this spread so far remain modest.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 11 , Pages 05

Economic Forecasting during a Pandemic

Kathleen Navin’s job as an economic forecaster got even harder with the onset of COVID-19.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Professional Forecasters’ Outlook for 2023 and Caveats Based on Past Performance

Individuals, businesses, and policymakers plan for the future by looking at possible changes in the economy, including income, the labor market, and interest rates. They may also seek guidance from professional forecasters.
Economic Synopses , Issue 1 , Pages 2 pages

Working Paper
Surveys of Professionals

This chapter provides an overview of surveys of professional forecasters, with a focus on the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters and the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. A distinguishing feature of these surveys is that they collect point and density forecasts and make the data publicly available. We discuss their structure, issues involved in using the data, and the construction of measures such as disagreement and uncertainty at the aggregate and individual levels. Our review also summarizes the findings of studies exploring issues such as the alignment of ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-13

Discussion Paper
Do Regional Fed Surveys Reflect National Manufacturing Conditions?

Surveys play an important role in how research staff across the Federal Reserve System understand changing economic conditions. Several Reserve Banks conduct manufacturing surveys to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector in their districts. Since these surveys are published before national data, policymakers and market watchers often use them for a signal of where U.S. manufacturing activity is heading. In October 2014, the Dallas Fed published an Economic Letter in which they found that regional Fed manufacturing surveys improved forecasts for several key national indicators. In this ...
Regional Matters

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