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Economic Forecasting during a Pandemic
Kathleen Navin’s job as an economic forecaster got even harder with the onset of COVID-19.
Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve
The slope of the Treasury yield curve is a popular recession predictor with an excellent track record. The two most common alternative measures of the slope typically move together but have diverged recently, making the resulting recession signals unclear. Economic arguments and empirical evidence, including its more accurate predictions, favor the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury securities. Recession probabilities for the next year derived from this spread so far remain modest.
Professional Forecasters’ Outlook for 2023 and Caveats Based on Past Performance
Individuals, businesses, and policymakers plan for the future by looking at possible changes in the economy, including income, the labor market, and interest rates. They may also seek guidance from professional forecasters.
Surveys of Professionals
This chapter provides an overview of surveys of professional forecasters, with a focus on the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters and the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. A distinguishing feature of these surveys is that they collect point and density forecasts and make the data publicly available. We discuss their structure, issues involved in using the data, and the construction of measures such as disagreement and uncertainty at the aggregate and individual levels. Our review also summarizes the findings of studies exploring issues such as the alignment of ...