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Journal Article
Breakeven Employment Growth
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Stewart, Stephanie (2024-07-08)
Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises the question of whether the “breakeven” employment growth rate has changed. In the short-run, recent surges in immigration and labor force participation have caused the current breakeven employment growth rate to rise as high as 230,000 jobs per month. However, the long-run breakeven employment growth rate appears unchanged, ranging around 70,000 to 90,000 jobs per month.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 18 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Pandemic Homebuyers: Who Were They, and Where Did They Buy?
Sanchez-Moyano, Rocio (2024-10-01)
Stable and affordable housing is foundational for participating in the economy, and homeownership is the primary form of wealth accumulation for most American families. Housing demand changed as households responded to the economic and social environment of the COVID-19 pandemic. As households moved because of these changing conditions and homebuying surged, many popular narratives emerged around migration patterns, “hot” places to buy, and what types of buyers were succeeding in the market.This research brief employs mortgage data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) to examine ...
Community Development Research Brief , Volume 2024 , Issue 02 , Pages 43

Journal Article
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
Daly, Mary C. (2022-04-22)
The inflation outlook combined with a strong labor market leave no doubt that further monetary policy tightening is appropriate. The question is, how much and how quickly? The appropriate path of policy confronts the economic headwinds immediately ahead while also laying the groundwork for the economy we want in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Center for Business and Economic Research, at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 10 , Pages 6

Working Paper
A Financial New Keynesian Model
Zhang, Tony; Mertens, Thomas M. (2023-11-13)
This paper solves a standard New Keynesian model in terms of risk-neutral expectations and estimates it using a cross-section of longer-dated financial assets at a single point in time. Inflation risk premia appear in the theory and cause inflation to deviate from its target on average. We re-estimate the model based on each day’s closing prices to capture high-frequency changes in the expected path of the economy. Our estimates show that financial markets reacted to the post-COVID surge in inflation with higher short-run inflation expectations, an increase in the inflation risk premium, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-35

Journal Article
To Retire or Keep Working after a Pandemic?
Miskanic, Brandon E.; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Zhao, Cindy (2024-03-25)
Workers age 55 and older left the labor force in large numbers following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Four years later, participation within this age group has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, despite the strongest labor market in decades. This has resulted in an estimated shortfall of nearly 2 million workers. Analysis shows that the participation shortfall is concentrated among workers in this age group without a college degree and can be explained by increased and growing retirement rates for this group, above pre-pandemic trends.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 08 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Assessing the Recent Rise in Unemployment
Avaradi, Greeshma; Kudlyak, Marianna; Miskanic, Brandon E.; Wiczer, David (2025-04-14)
The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market transitions account for this rise. One dominant factor appears to be a fall in the job-finding rate—the share of unemployed individuals finding employment. The duration of unemployment has also increased recently. In past decades, these patterns have frequently occurred during the onset of recessions, which suggests that these data should be closely monitored.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 09 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?
Jordà, Òscar; Liu, Celeste; Nechio, Fernanda; Rivera-Reyes, Fabián (2022-03-28)
Inflation rates in the United States and other developed economies have closely tracked each other historically. Problems with global supply chains and changes in spending patterns due to the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed up inflation worldwide. However, since the first half of 2021, U.S. inflation has increasingly outpaced inflation in other developed countries. Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic’s economic effect may have contributed to this divergence by raising inflation about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 07 , Pages 06

Journal Article
Are Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Mexico?
Beauregard, Remy; Christensen, Jens H. E.; Fischer, Eric; Zhu, Simon (2023-01-17)
Price inflation has increased sharply since early 2021 in many countries, including Mexico. If sustained, high inflation in Mexico could raise questions about the ability of its central bank to bring inflation down to its 3% inflation target. However, analyzing the difference between market prices of nominal and inflation-indexed government bonds suggests investors’ long-term inflation expectations in Mexico are close to the central bank’s inflation target and are projected to remain so in coming years.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 01 , Pages 6

Journal Article
How Strongly Are Local Economies Tied to COVID-19?
Tarasewicz, Samuel R.; Wilson, Daniel J. (2021-11-15)
The relationship between economic activity and local COVID-19 conditions—infections and deaths—has changed over time. While activity was strongly tied to local virus conditions during the first six to nine months of the pandemic, they decoupled in late 2020 through the first half of 2021. This link strengthened again in the third quarter of 2021, particularly for highly vaccinated counties. One possible interpretation of this restrengthening is that areas with high vaccination rates have heightened virus risk aversion and hence high sensitivity to changes in local virus conditions.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 30 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World
Daly, Mary C. (2023-03-09)
Restoring price stability is a key part of the Fed’s mandate, and it is what the American people expect. Achieving it will take time and a broad view of economic conditions. Policymakers have to respond to an economy that is evolving in real time and prepare for what the economy will look like in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies at Princeton University on March 4.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 08 , Pages 8

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