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Working Paper
Lending Relationships and Optimal Monetary Policy
Bethune, Zachary; Wong, Russell; Rocheteau, Guillaume; Zhang, Cathy (2020-09-25)
We construct and calibrate a monetary model of corporate finance with endogenous formation of lending relationships. The equilibrium features money demands by firms that depend on their access to credit and a pecking order of financing means. We describe the mechanism through which monetary policy affects the creation of relationships and firms' incentives to use internal or external finance. We study optimal monetary policy following an unanticipated destruction of relationships under different commitment assumptions. The Ramsey solution uses forward guidance to expedite creation of new ...
Working Paper , Paper 20-13

Report
Cyber Risk and the U.S. Financial System: A Pre-Mortem Analysis
Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Lee, Michael Junho; Kovner, Anna (2020-01-01)
We model how a cyber attack may be amplified through the U.S. financial system, focusing on the wholesale payments network. We estimate that the impairment of any of the five most active U.S. banks will result in significant spillovers to other banks, with 38 percent of the network affected on average. The impact varies and can be larger on particular days and geographies. When banks respond to uncertainty by liquidity hoarding, the potential impact in forgone payment activity is dramatic, reaching more than 2.5 times daily GDP. In a reverse stress test, interruptions originating from banks ...
Staff Reports , Paper 909

Working Paper
Banking on the Boom, Tripped by the Bust: Banks and the World War I Agricultural Price Shock
Wheelock, David C.; Jaremski, Matthew (2017-11-03)
How do banks respond to asset booms? This paper examines i) how U.S. banks responded to the World War I farmland boom; ii) the impact of regulation; and iii) how bank closures exacerbated the post-war bust. The boom encouraged new bank formation and balance sheet expansion (especially by new banks). Deposit insurance amplified the impact of rising crop prices on bank portfolios, while higher minimum capital requirements dampened the effects. Banks that responded most aggressively to the asset boom had a higher probability of closing in the bust, and counties with more bank closures ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-36

Journal Article
Tailoring Bank Regulations
Sablik, Timothy (2018-07)
Policy Update article: Tailoring Bank Regulations
Econ Focus , Issue 3Q , Pages 26-26

Report
Federal Reserve tools for managing rates and reserves
Palida, Ali; McAndrews, James J.; Martin, Antoine; Skeie, David R. (2013-09-01)
The Federal Reserve announced in January 2019 that it would maintain an ample supply of reserves amid its balance sheet reduction. We model the impact of reserves on banks’ liquidity and balance sheet costs. In competitive general equilibrium, the optimal supply of reserves equates bank deposit rates to the interest rate paid on excess reserves (IOER), consistent with ample reserves. Raising the Fed’s overnight reverse repo rate up to IOER would increase liquidity, expediently reduce the overabundance of reserves, and stabilize the volatility of overnight market rates. Empirical analysis ...
Staff Reports , Paper 642

Discussion Paper
Bank Capital, Loan Liquidity, and Credit Standards since the Global Financial Crisis
Sporn, John; Morgan, Donald P.; Hamerling, Sarah Ngo (2020-10-21)
Did the 2007-09 financial crisis or the regulatory reforms that followed alter how banks change their underwriting standards over the course of the business cycle? We provide some simple, “narrative” evidence on that question by studying the reasons banks cite when they report a change in commercial credit standards in the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. We find that the economic outlook, risk tolerance, and other real factors generally drive standards more than financial factors such as bank capital and loan market liquidity. Those financial factors have mattered ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201021

Report
Banks' incentives and the quality of internal risk models
Santos, Joao A. C.; Plosser, Matthew (2014-12-01)
This paper investigates the incentives for banks to bias their internally generated risk estimates. We are able to estimate bank biases at the credit level by comparing bank-generated risk estimates within loan syndicates. The biases are positively correlated with measures of regulatory capital, even in the presence of bank fixed effects, consistent with an effort by low-capital banks to improve regulatory ratios. At the portfolio level, the difference in borrower probability of default is as large as 100 basis points, which can improve the typical loan portfolio?s Tier 1 capital ratio by as ...
Staff Reports , Paper 704

Working Paper
Is a Friend in Need a Friend Indeed? How Relationship Borrowers Fare during the COVID-19 Crisis
Udell, Gregory F.; Norden, Lars; Berger, Allen N.; Bouwman, Christa H. S.; Roman, Raluca (2021-03-25)
We analyze loan contract terms, investigating whether relationship borrowers fare better or worse than others in times of need, using the COVID-19 crisis as a quasi-natural experiment. COVID-19 is superior to prior crises for such analysis because its public health and government restrictions shocks directly harm borrowers, rather than banks. Our dataset includes Y-14Q, covering syndicated and non syndicated loans and small and large firms, unlike some other datasets. We find the dark side of relationships dominates across four relationship measures, 14 COVID-19 shocks, and PPP participation. ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-13

Working Paper
Piercing Through Opacity: Relationships and Credit Card Lending to Consumers and Small Businesses During Normal Times and the COVID-19 Crisis
Udell, Gregory F.; Wang, Teng; Norden, Lars; Roman, Raluca A.; Berger, Allen N.; Bouwman, Christa H. S. (2021-05-27)
We investigate bank relationships in a rarely considered context – consumer and small business credit cards. Using over one million accounts, we find during normal times, consumer relationship customers enjoy relatively favorable credit terms, consistent with the bright side of relationships, while the dark side dominates for small businesses. During the COVID-19 crisis, both groups benefit, reflecting intertemporal smoothing, with more benefits flowing to safer relationship customers. Conventional banking relationships benefit consumers more than credit card relationships, with mixed ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-19

Discussion Paper
Are Banks Being Roiled by Oil?
Vickery, James; Thomas, Lauren; Velasquez, Ulysses (2016-10-24)
Profits and employment in the oil and natural gas extraction industry have fallen significantly since 2014, reflecting a sustained decline in energy prices. In this post, we look at how these tremors are affecting banks that operate in energy industry?intensive regions of the United States. We find that banks in the ?oil patch? have experienced a significant rise in delinquencies on commercial and industrial loans. So far though, there appears to be limited evidence of spillovers to other types of loans and no evidence of widespread bank losses or failures in these regions.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161024

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