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Working Paper
Earnings Shocks and Stabilization During COVID-19
Larrimore, Jeff; Mortenson, Jacob; Splinter, David (2021-08-02)
This paper documents the magnitude and distribution of U.S. earnings changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and how fiscal relief offset lost earnings. We build panels from administrative tax data to measure annual earnings changes. The frequency of earnings declines during the pandemic were similar to the Great Recession, but the distribution was very different. In 2020, workers starting in the bottom half of the distribution were more likely to experience large annual earnings declines and a similar share of male and female workers had large earnings declines. While most workers experiencing ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-052

Working Paper
Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions
Price, Brendan M.; Coglianese, John M. (2020-10-07)
Joblessness is highly seasonal. To analyze how households adapt to seasonal joblessness, we introduce a measure of seasonal work interruptions premised on the idea that a seasonal worker will tend to exit employment around the same time each year. We show that an excess share of prime-age US workers experience recurrent separations spaced exactly 12 months apart. These separations coincide with aggregate seasonal downturns and are concentrated in seasonally volatile industries. Examining workers most prone to seasonal work interruptions, we find that these workers incur large earnings losses ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-084

Working Paper
How should unemployment benefits respond to the business cycle?
Kiley, Michael T. (2003)
Unemployment insurance programs balance the benefits of consumption smoothing for unemployed workers against the disincentive effects of unemployment benefits. Such a balancing of benefits and costs is likely sensitive to the cyclical state of the economy, and hence the generosity of benefits should also respond to the cyclical state of the economy. The nature of such responses in an optimal unemployment insurance (UI) program is analyzed in a simple model. The results suggest that an optimal UI program would increase the initial level of benefits and probably extend higher benefits over time ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2003-01

Journal Article
If you lost your job …
Clement, Douglas (2006-06)
Intuition and conventional economic models suggest that unemployment benefits should decline over time to induce unemployed workers to seek jobs.
The Region , Volume 20 , Issue Jun , Pages 34-37, 50-53

Working Paper
Universal Basic Income versus Unemployment Insurance
Pallage, Stéphane; Fabre, Alice; Zimmermann, Christian (2014-11-14)
In this paper we compare the welfare effects of unemployment insurance (UI) with an universal basic income (UBI) system in an economy with idiosyncratic shocks to employment. Both policies provide a safety net in the face of idiosyncratic shocks. While the unemployment insurance program should do a better job at protecting the unemployed, it suffers from moral hazard and substantial monitoring costs, which may threaten its usefulness. The universal basic income, which is simpler to manage and immune to moral hazard, may represent an interesting alternative in this context. We work within a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-47

Journal Article
Unemployment insurance policy in New England: background and issues
Tannenwald, Robert; O'Leary, Christopher J. (1997-05)
Almost two-thirds of the states, and all the New England states except New Hampshire, have exhausted their unemployment insurance trust fund and borrowed from the federal government at least once during the past 35 years. Under such circumstances, states are required by law to raise unemployment insurance taxes in order to replenish their trust funds and to pay off their debts to the federal government. Since higher unemployment insurance taxes increase employer costs, replenishment forces states into a trade-off between economic competitiveness and trust fund adequacy. In recent years, ...
New England Economic Review , Issue May , Pages 3-22

Working Paper
Unemployment insurance and the uninsured
Regev, Tali (2006)
Under federal-state law workers who quit a job are not entitled to receive unemployment insurance benefits. To show how the existence of the uninsured affects wages and employment, I extend an equilibrium search model to account for two types of unemployed workers: those who are currently receiving unemployment benefits and for whom an increase in unemployment benefits reduces the incentive to work, and those who are currently not insured. For these, work provides an added value in the form of future eligibility, and an increase in unemployment benefits increases their willingness to work. ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-48

Working Paper
Unemployment Insurance Experience Rating and Labor Market Dynamics
Ratner, David (2013-12-11)
Unemployment insurance experience rating imposes higher payroll tax rates on firms that have laid off more workers in the past. To analyze the effects of UI tax policy on labor market dynamics, this paper develops a search model of unemployment with heterogeneous firms and realistic UI financing. The model predicts that higher experience rating reduces both job creation and job destruction. Using firm-level data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, the model is tested by comparing job creation and job destruction across states and industries with different UI tax schedules. The ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2013-86

Working Paper
Expanding Unemployment Insurance Coverage
Michaud, Amanda M. (2023-03-27)
This paper develops a quantitative framework to study the impact of Unemployment Insurance (UI) expansions to workers earning below eligibility thresholds. A model of how UI affects welfare and labor supply is developed and calibrated with microeconomic data, including consumption. The model predicts that the current ineligible would choose to stay on UI longer than the current eligible and the margins of why this is the case are quantified. The model is applied to the Great Recession by identifying ineligible workers in the data using machine learning and to an actual expansion during ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 067

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