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Keywords:Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) 

The U.S. economic outlook and implications for monetary policy

Remarks at the Economic Leadership Forum, Somerset, New Jersey.

Discussion Paper
The Survey of Consumer Expectations Turns Two!

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) turned two years old in June. In this post, we review some of the key findings from the first two years of the survey’s history, highlighting the most noteworthy trends revealed in the data.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150713a

Opening Remarks: Heterogeneity Blog Series Webinar

Remarks for the Heterogeneity Blog Series Webinar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.

Remarks at the fifth Data Management Strategies and Technologies Workshop

Remarks at the Fifth Data Management Strategies and Technologies Workshop, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Speech , Paper 129

The advantages of probabilistic survey questions: remarks at the IT Forum and RCEA Bayesian Workshop, keynote address, Rimini, Italy, May 2016

Remarks at the IT Forum and RCEA Bayesian Workshop Keynote Address, Rimini, Italy.
Speech , Paper 211

Discussion Paper
Optimists and Pessimists in the Housing Market

Given momentum in house prices over business cycles, research on consumer beliefs since the financial crisis has honed in on the potential importance of extrapolative beliefs?myopically assuming trends in asset prices will continue. Extrapolation is frequently cited as a central reason for excessively optimistic expectations about future asset prices, featuring prominently, for example, in the irrational exuberance narrative of Shiller. Other influential work since the Great Recession has emphasized the outsized role that extrapolative optimists can have in bubble formation. In this post, we ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191016

Opening remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City

Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Survey of Consumer Expectations, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 227

Discussion Paper
Introducing the SCE Credit Access Survey

Today, we are releasing new data on consumers? experiences and expectations regarding credit demand. We?ve been collecting these data every four months since mid-2013, as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Other data sources describing consumer credit either provide aggregates that are an interaction of credit supply and demand (such as the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel), or show only short-term changes in supply and demand (as reported by the supply side in the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey), or are too infrequent to provide a real-time picture of changes in consumer ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141120

Discussion Paper
How Widespread Is the Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Consumer Expectations?

In a recent blog post, we showed that consumer expectations worsened sharply through March, as the COVID-19 epidemic spread and affected a growing part of the U.S. population. In this post, we document how much of this deterioration can be directly attributed to the coronavirus outbreak. We then explore how the effect of the outbreak has varied over time and across demographic groups.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200416b




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