Limited Participation in Equity Markets and Business Cycles
This paper studies how the rise in US households' participation in equity markets affects the transmission of macroeconomic shocks to the economy. I embed limited participation into a New Keynesian framework for the US economy to analyze the individual and aggregate effects of higher participation. I derive three main results. First, participants are relatively more responsive to shocks than nonparticipants. Second, higher participation reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. Third, with higher participation the economy becomes less volatile. I contrast key predictions of my model with ...
Corporate Taxes and the Earnings Distribution: Effects of the Domestic Production Activities Deduction
This paper investigates how corporate tax changes affect workers’ earnings. We use a dataset of U.S. worker-level W-2 filings matched with corporate tax returns and study the implementation of the Domestic Production Activities Deduction (DPAD). We find the DPAD tax rate reduction has a substantial effect on the distribution of annual wage earnings within a firm. Earnings of workers at the top of their firm’s earnings distribution rise relative to those at the bottom of the distribution. We estimate a semi-elasticity of average earnings of 1.1 with respect to the DPAD marginal tax rate ...
Reinvesting After the Crisis: Changes in the Fixed-Income Portfolios of Life Insurers
The years following the Great Recession presented a unique set of challenges for life insurers even as the U.S. economic recovery began to gain momentum. Between the financial crisis in 2008 and the end of 2016, life insurers? policyholder liabilities grew 25%, from $2.6 trillion to $3.2 trillion, while their preferred investment habitat, the fixed-income securities market (excluding Treasury securities), grew by only 3%, from $22.0 trillion to $22.1 trillion.
Investment and Bilateral Insurance
Private information may limit insurance possibilities when two agents get together to pool idiosyncratic risk. However, if there is capital accumulation, bilateral insurance possibilities may improve because misreporting distorts investment. We show that if one of the Pareto weights is sufficiently large, that agent does not have incentives to misreport. This implies that, under some conditions, the full information allocation is incentive compatible when agents have equal Pareto weights. In the long run, either one of the agents goes to immiseration, or both agents’ lifetime utilities are ...
The Real Effects of Credit Line Drawdowns
Do firms use credit line drawdowns to finance investment? Using a unique dataset of 467 COMPUSTAT firms with credit lines, we study the purpose of drawdowns during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Our data show that credit line drawdowns had already increased in 2007, precisely when disruptions in bank funding markets began to squeeze aggregate liquidity. Consistent with theory, our results confirm that firms use drawdowns to sustain investment after an idiosyncratic liquidity shock. Using an instrumental variable approach based on institutional features of credit line contracts, we find that ...
Bullard Discusses Economy and Fed’s Response to COVID-19 in Central Banking Journal Interview
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard shared his views on various aspects of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic in an interview with Central Banking Journal.
Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization : Evidence from U.S. Industries and Establishments
This paper examines the effect of a change in U.S. trade policy on the domestic investment of U.S. manufacturers. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that industries more exposed to reductions in import tariff uncertainty exhibit relative declines in investment after the change in trade policy. Within industries, we find that this relationship is concentrated among establishments with low initial levels of labor productivity, capital intensity and skill intensity. For plants with high initial levels of skill intensity, we find that increased exposure is ...
The Economic Effects of Firm-Level Uncertainty: Evidence Using Subjective Expectations
This paper uses over two decades of Italian survey data on business managers' expectations to measure subjective firm-level uncertainty and quantify its economic effects. We document that firm-level uncertainty persists for a few years and varies across firms' demographic characteristics. Uncertainty induces long-lasting economic effects over a broad array of real and financial variables. The source of uncertainty matters with firms responding only to downside uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about future adverse outcomes. Economy-wide uncertainty, constructed aggregating firm-level ...
IPOs and Corporate Taxes
How does going public affect firms’ tax obligations and tax planning? Using a panel of U.S. corporate tax return data from 1994 to 2018, we compare tax payments for firms that completed an IPO with those that filed for an IPO but later withdrew and remained private. We find that in the years immediately following IPO completion, firms have a higher probability of paying taxes and pay more U.S. tax. The effects occur regardless of tax status in the pre-IPO period and are not explained by statutory limitations imposed on the use of pre-IPO losses. Higher income reported for financial ...
Computerizing Households and the Role of Investment-Specific Productivity in Business Cycles
Advancements in computer technology have reshaped not only business operations but also household consumption. We estimate a business-cycle model disaggregating consumer IT and non-IT durable goods from the capital stock. We find that shocks to the supply of IT durables account for more than half of the variation in house- holds' real expenditure on IT durables. Furthermore, investment-specific productivity shocks drove nearly half of the rapid growth in household durable expenditures during the 2000s. Nonetheless, they have small influence over output dynamics, because unlike business ...