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Conference Paper
How forward-looking is optimal monetary policy?
Woodford, Michael; Giannoni, Marc
(2003)
We calculate optimal monetary policy rules for several variants of a simple optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism with sticky prices and/or wages. We show that robustly optimal rules can be represented by interest-rate feedback rules that generalize the celebrated proposal of Taylor (1993). Optimal rules, however, require that the current interest rate operating target depend positively on the recent past level of the operating target, and its recent rate of increase, in a way that is characteristic of estimated central bank reaction functions, but not of Taylor's proposal.
Proceedings
Journal Article
PPI versus CPI inflation
Gavin, William T.
(2003-02)
National Economic Trends
, Issue Feb
Journal Article
Historical origins of the cost-push fallacy
Humphrey, Thomas M.
(1998-07)
Economic Quarterly
, Issue Sum
, Pages 53-74
Speech
The optimal inflation target in an economy with limited enforcement
Antinolfi, Gaetano; Azariadis, Costas; Bullard, James B.
(2008)
Presented at New Perspectives on Monetary Policy Design. Sponsored by the Bank of Canada and the Centre De Recerca en Economia Internacional. Barcelona, Spain.
Speech
, Paper 167
Monograph
An examination of employment and unemployment rates
Smith, Sharon P.
(1979)
Originally appeared in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, Autumn 1977
Monograph
Journal Article
Improving inflation forecasts in the medium to long term
Zaman, Saeed
(2013-11)
To accurately forecast the future rate of inflation, it is imperative to account for inflation?s underlying trend. This is especially important for medium- to long-run forecasts. In this Commentary I demonstrate a simple but powerful technique for incorporating this trend into standard statistical time series models and report the gains to accuracy. I find that incorporating the trend by modeling inflation as gap from an estimated underlying trend leads to substantial gains in forecast accuracy of about 20 percent to 30 percent, two to three years out.
Economic Commentary
, Issue Nov
Working Paper
Real indeterminacy in monetary models with nominal interest rate distortions: the problem with inflation targets
Fuerst, Timothy S.; Carlstrom, Charles T.
(2001)
This paper demonstrates that in a standard monetary model with a cash-in-advance constraint on consumption there exists real indeterminacy whenever the nominal interest rate moves too closely with the real rate. A particular example of such a policy is an inflation rate target. This is not a knife-edge result. The conclusion is robust to a wide range of calibrations and to a monetary environment that allows for endogenous velocity.
Working Papers (Old Series)
, Paper 9818R
Working Paper
Growth and inflation: a cross-country study
Motley, Brian
(1994)
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
, Paper 94-08
Journal Article
The costs of anticipated inflation
Throop, Adrian W.
(1990)
FRBSF Economic Letter
Working Paper
Moderate inflation and the deflation-depression link
Spiegel, Mark M.; Benhabib, Jess
(2006)
In a recent paper, Atkeson and Kehoe (2004) demonstrated the lack of a robust empirical relationship between inflation and growth for a cross-section of countries with 19th and 20th century data, concluding that the historical evidence only provides weak support for the contention that deflation episodes are harmful to economic growth. In this paper, we revisit this relationship by allowing for inflation and growth to have a nonlinear specification dependent on inflation levels. In particular, we allow for the possibility that high inflation is negatively correlated with growth, while a ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2006-32
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