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Keywords:Great Recession 

Working Paper
Employment in the Great Recession : How Important Were Household Credit Supply Shocks?

I pool data from all large multimarket lenders in the U.S. to estimate how many of the over seven million jobs lost in the Great Recession can be explained by reductions in the supply of mortgage credit. I construct a mortgage credit supply instrument at the county level, the weighted average (by prerecession mortgage market shares) of liquidity-driven lender shocks during the recession. The reduction in mortgage supply explains about 15 percent of the employment decline. The job losses are concentrated in construction and finance.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-074

Working Paper
Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel

During the Great Recession, the collapse of consumption across the US varied greatly but systematically with house-price declines. Our message is that household financial health matters for understanding this relationship. Two facts are essential for our finding: (1) the decline in house prices led to an increase in household financial distress (FD) prior to the decline in income during the recession, and (2) at the zip-code level, the prevalence of FD prior to the recession was positively correlated with house-price declines at the onset of the recession. We measure the power of the ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-13

Journal Article
Collateral Damage: House Prices and Consumption During the Great Recession

Did a decline in house prices cause the Great Recession? And if so, how? Credit constraints may be the key to answering those questions
Economic Insights , Volume 4 , Issue 3 , Pages 7-12

Report
Health spending slowed down in spite of the crisis

We exploit plausibly exogenous regulatory changes in the mortgage lending market to estimate causal effects of the financial boom and bust on personal income in the health sector. We find that counties that were exogenously more exposed to the crisis because of the regulatory reforms experienced a greater rise in the size of the health sector over the course of the boom and the bust relative to control counties, with the differential persisting through the recovery. We provide suggestive evidence that increased mortality during the bust and greater capital investment during the boom ...
Staff Reports , Paper 781

Working Paper
Shrinkage estimation of high-dimensional factor models with structural instabilities

In high-dimensional factor models, both the factor loadings and the number of factors may change over time. This paper proposes a shrinkage estimator that detects and disentangles these instabilities. The new method simultaneously and consistently estimates the number of pre- and post-break factors, which liberates researchers from sequential testing and achieves uniform control of the family-wise model selection errors over an increasing number of variables. The shrinkage estimator only requires the calculation of principal components and the solution of a convex optimization problem, which ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-4

Working Paper
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future

In the years since the Great Recession, many observers have highlighted the slow pace of labor and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in advanced economies. This paper focuses on the European experience, where we highlight that trend TFP growth was already low in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This suggests that it is important to consider factors other than just the deep crisis itself or policy changes since the crisis. After the mid-1990s, European economies stopped converging, or even began diverging, from the U.S. level of TFP. That said, in contrast to the United ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-22

Working Paper
How Did Young Firms Fare During the Great Recession? Evidence from the Kauffman Firm Survey

We examine the evolution of several key firm economic and financial variables in the years surrounding and during the Great Recession using the Kauffman Firm Survey, a large panel of young firms founded in 2004 and surveyed for eight consecutive years. We find that these young firms experienced slower growth in revenues, employment, and assets and faced tighter financing conditions during the recessionary years. While we find some evidence that firm growth picked up following the recession, it is not clear that it returned to the levels it would have been absent the recessionary shock. We ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-85

Working Paper
The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective

The UK’s slow productivity growth since 2007 has been referred to as a “puzzle”, as if it were a particularly UK-specific challenge. In this paper, we highlight how the United States and northern Europe experienced very similar slowdowns. The common slowdown in productivity growth was a slowdown in total factor productivity (TFP) growth; we find little evidence that capital deepening was an important independent factor. From a conditional-convergence perspective, most of the UK slowdown follows from the slowdown at the U.S. frontier. From the mid-1980s to 2007, the UK’s relative ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-07

Journal Article
The COVID-19 Fiscal Multiplier: Lessons from the Great Recession

The United States enacted a series of fiscal relief and stimulus bills in recent weeks, centered around the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The current fiscal response shares key similarities to the fiscal stimulus enacted during the Great Recession. Research over the past 10 years on the macroeconomic impact of that stimulus thus has important implications for the current fiscal response. The results point to a large potential impact on GDP.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 13 , Pages 5

Report
Rare shocks, great recessions

We estimate a DSGE model where rare large shocks can occur, by replacing the commonly used Gaussian assumption with a Student?s t distribution. Results from the Smets and Wouters (2007) model estimated on the usual set of macroeconomic time series over the 1964-2011 period indicate that 1) the Student?s t specification is strongly favored by the data even when we allow for low-frequency variation in the volatility of the shocks and 2) the estimated degrees of freedom are quite low for several shocks that drive U.S. business cycles, implying an important role for rare large shocks. This result ...
Staff Reports , Paper 585

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