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Working Paper
The Federal Reserve's New Framework: Context and Consequences

This paper discusses the Federal Reserve's new framework and highlights some important policy implications that flow from the revised consensus statement and the new strategy. In particular, it first discusses the factors that motivated the Federal Reserve in November 2018 to announce it would undertake in 2019 the first-ever public review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. It then considers the major findings of the review as codified in our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and highlights some important policy implications that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-001

The economic outlook and monetary policy

Lehigh Valley Partnership and Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corporation. Allentown, PA. President Charles Plosser gives his views on the regional and national economy and discusses why he remains optimistic about the economic outlook. He also shares his thoughts about monetary policy and explains why he departed from the majority view at the July and September FOMC meetings.
Speech , Paper 105

Working Paper
Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach

Since November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve has regularly published participants? qualitative assessments of the uncertainty attending their individual forecasts of real activity and inflation, expressed relative to that seen on average in the past. The benchmarks used for these historical comparisons are the average root mean squared forecast errors (RMSEs) made by various private and government forecasters over the past twenty years. This paper documents how these benchmarks are constructed and discusses some of their properties. We draw several ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-020

Systematic Monetary Policy and Communication

President Plosser gives his views on the economy and the FOMC's most recent policy decisions. He also explains how a detailed monetary policy report produced by the FOMC would lead to better decisions and better economic outcomes over the longer run.
Speech , Paper 102

Journal Article
Understanding Hawks and Doves

How do hawks and doves on the Federal Open Market Committee differ in their views of appropriate monetary policy and their related projections for inflation and unemployment? We find that hawks project higher inflation despite building tighter policy paths into their projections. Doves project lower inflation despite having easier policy paths, although their projections are somewhat closer to the median. In addition, hawks see a steeper inflation-unemployment tradeoff than doves up to a one-year horizon.
Macro Bulletin , Issue June 27, 2018 , Pages 1-4

Anticipated FOMC Policy, Inflation and Credibility

Following through on its September 2020 plan, the FOMC waited to raise interest rates until March 2022, when inflation was high and unemployment was below its perceived long-run level. However, by early fall 2021, markets were predicting a rate increase, and policymakers were signaling an increase in their Summary of Economic Projections. In contrast to the 1980s and 1990s, when the Fed fought inflation scares even as actual inflation trended down, long-term inflation expectations have been relatively stable even as actual inflation has risen far above target. This stability has likely been ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 37

Working Paper
Fiscal policy: ex ante and ex post

The surge in fiscal deficits since 2008 has put a renewed focus on the authors? understanding of fiscal policy. The interaction of fiscal and monetary policy during this period has also been the subject of much discussion and analysis. This paper gives new insight into past fiscal policy and its influence on monetary policy by examining the U.S. Federal Reserve Board staff?s Greenbook forecasts of fiscal policy. The authors create a real-time database of the Greenbook forecasts of fiscal policy, examine the forecast performance in terms of bias and effciency, and explore the implications for ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-22

The U.S. economic outlook and implications for monetary policy

Remarks at the People?s Bank of China-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint Symposium, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Speech , Paper 194

Moving toward 'normal' U.S. monetary policy: remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia

Remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia.
Speech , Paper 296

2020 Lessons, 2021 Priorities

Virtual Presentation at Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, by Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Tuesday, December 1, 2020


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Bundick, Brent 5 items

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