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Speech
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Communications 03.21.17 The Stanley S. Watts Lecture, The Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA
Mester, Loretta J. (2017-03-21)
This evening, I will speak about monetary policy and the role of communications in Federal Reserve policymaking. I serve on the Federal Open Market Committee?s subcommittee on communications, so it may not be surprising that I believe communications play an essential role in monetary policy implementation. Of course, my remarks this evening will reflect my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.
Speech , Paper 80

Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City
Dudley, William (2017-09-08)
Remarks at Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City.
Speech , Paper 254

Working Paper
Should the Fed regularly evaluate its monetary policy framework?
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C.; Olivei, Giovanni P.; Rosengren, Eric S.; Tootell, Geoffrey M. B. (2018-10-01)
Would a more open and regular evaluation of the monetary policy framework improve policy in the United States? Even when considering a relatively short timeframe that spans the 1960s to the present, it is possible to point to many significant changes to the framework. Some of the changes were precipitated by acute economic conditions, while others were considered and implemented only gradually as a response to long-standing problems with the framework. But the process for evaluating and changing frameworks to date has not always been transparent, and changes have not always been timely. Could ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-8

Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and implications for monetary policy
Dudley, William (2016-02-29)
Remarks at the People?s Bank of China-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint Symposium, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Speech , Paper 194

Working Paper
Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements
Yang, Shu-Kuei X.; Song, Dongho; Doh, Taeyoung (2020-10-06)
We apply a natural language processing algorithm to FOMC statements to construct a new measure of monetary policy stance, including the tone and novelty of a policy statement. We exploit cross-sectional variations across alternative FOMC statements to identify the tone (for example, dovish or hawkish), and contrast the current and previous FOMC statements released after Committee meetings to identify the novelty of the announcement. We then use high-frequency bond prices to compute the surprise component of the monetary policy stance. Our text-based estimates of monetary policy surprises are ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-14

Discussion Paper
Preparing for Takeoff? Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting
Moench, Emanuel; Eusepi, Stefano; Crump, Richard K. (2013-09-09)
Following the June 18-19 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting different measures of short-term interest rates increased notably. In the chart below, we plot two such measures: the two-year Treasury yield and the one-year overnight indexed swap (OIS) forward rate, one year in the future. The vertical line indicates the final day of the June FOMC meeting. To what extent did this rise in rates following the June FOMC meeting reflect a shift in the expected future path of the federal funds rate (FFR)? Market participants and policy makers often directly read the expected path from ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130909

Journal Article
Did the Federal Reserve Anchor Inflation Expectations Too Low?
Bundick, Brent; Smith, Andrew Lee (2021-03-04)
In 2012, the Federal Reserve adopted a 2 percent target for inflation to firmly anchor longer-term inflation expectations. Since then, inflation has averaged about 1.4 percent. Modern theories suggest that inflation should eventually gravitate toward measures of longer-run inflation expectations. The tendency for inflation to reside below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target over much of the past decade raises questions of whether longer-run inflation expectations are anchored—and, if so, whether they are anchored below 2 percent.Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith argue that the ...
Economic Review , Volume 106 , Issue no.1 , Pages 5-23

Speech
The economic outlook and monetary policy
Plosser, Charles I. (2014-10-16)
Lehigh Valley Partnership and Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corporation. Allentown, PA. President Charles Plosser gives his views on the regional and national economy and discusses why he remains optimistic about the economic outlook. He also shares his thoughts about monetary policy and explains why he departed from the majority view at the July and September FOMC meetings.
Speech , Paper 105

Working Paper
Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach
Reifschneider, David L.; Tulip, Peter (2017-02-24)
Since November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve has regularly published participants? qualitative assessments of the uncertainty attending their individual forecasts of real activity and inflation, expressed relative to that seen on average in the past. The benchmarks used for these historical comparisons are the average root mean squared forecast errors (RMSEs) made by various private and government forecasters over the past twenty years. This paper documents how these benchmarks are constructed and discusses some of their properties. We draw several ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-020

Speech
Observations on implementing monetary policy in an ample-reserves regime: remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City
Logan, Lorie (2019-04-17)
Remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City.
Speech , Paper 318

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