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Working Paper
How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?
Ericsson, Neil R. (2017-01-06)
Government debt and forecasts thereof attracted considerable attention during the recent financial crisis. The current paper analyzes potential biases in different U.S. government agencies? one-year-ahead forecasts of U.S. gross federal debt over 1984-2012. Standard tests typically fail to detect biases in these forecasts. However, impulse indicator saturation (IIS) detects economically large and highly significant time-varying biases, particularly at turning points in the business cycle. These biases do not appear to be politically related. IIS defines a generic procedure for examining ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1189

Working Paper
Charging up a mountain of debt: households and their credit cards.
Yoo, Peter S. (1996)
I use the Surveys of Consumer Finances conducted in 1983, 1989 and 1992 to separate the growth of credit card debt into two categories, changes in the number of households with credit cards and changes in households credit card debt. I can then account for the relative contributions of increases in credit card availability, number of households, and average credit card debt. I also use the household income information to quantify the impact of more lower income households with credit cards. Data suggest that the increases in credit card debt is largely attributable to increased average credit ...
Working Papers , Paper 1996-015

Report
Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds
Ramanarayanan, Ananth; Arellano, Cristina (2008)
This paper studies the maturity composition and the term structure of interest rate spreads of government debt in emerging markets. In the data, when interest rate spreads rise, debt maturity shortens and the spread on short-term bonds is higher than on long-term bonds. To account for this pattern, we build a dynamic model of international borrowing with endogenous default and multiple maturities of debt. Short-term debt can deliver higher immediate consumption than long-term debt; large long-term loans are not available because the borrower cannot commit to save in the near future towards ...
Staff Report , Paper 410

Report
The impact of housing markets on consumer debt: credit report evidence from 1999 to 2012
Zafar, Basit; Stein, Sarah; Brown, Meta (2013)
We investigate the impact of large swings in the housing market on nonmortgage borrowing, including student, credit card, auto, and home equity debts. For this purpose, we use CoreLogic geographic house price variation, matched with rich data on consumer liabilities from the Equifax-sourced FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel. The length and timing of our panel allow us to study the consumer debt portfolio response to house price changes during a boom-and-bust cycle of historic magnitude as well as during more ordinary times. In first-differenced instrumental variables estimation, we find that during ...
Staff Reports , Paper 617

Working Paper
Debt maturity, risk, and asymmetric information
Espinosa-Vega, Marco A.; Frame, W. Scott; Miller, Nathan H.; Berger, Allen N. (2004)
We test the implications of Flannery's (1986) and Diamond's (1991) models concerning the effects of risk and asymmetric information in determining debt maturity, and we examine the overall importance of informational asymmetries in debt maturity choices. We employ data on over 6,000 commercial loans from 53 large U.S. banks. Our results for low-risk firms are consistent with the predictions of both theoretical models, but our findings for high-risk firms conflict with the predictions of Diamond's model and with much of the empirical literature. Our findings also suggest a strong quantitative ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2004-60

Journal Article
Get by with a little help from my…other exports
Li, Li; Contessi, Silvio (2012)
The European debt crisis could certainly affect the U.S. economy through other channels?but its direct impact on U.S. exports is likely to be small.>
Economic Synopses

Conference Paper
Getting the most out of mandatory subordinated debt requirement
Ritchken, Peter H.; Haubrich, Joseph G.; Fan, Rong; Thomson, James B. (2003)
Proceedings , Paper 848

Working Paper
The timing of debt issuance and rating migration: theory and evidence
Covitz, Daniel M.; Harrison, Paul (2000)
This paper develops and tests a recursive model of debt issuance and rating migration. We examine a signaling game with firms who have private information about their probability distribution of future rating migration. A key assumption of the model is that rating agencies reveal information over time, creating a recursive information problem, which in turn generates an adverse selection problem in debt issuance similar to that for equity issuance in Myers and Majluf (1984). This adverse selection model predicts that debt issuance provides a negative signal of rating migration, and that the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2000-10

Conference Paper
The changing nature of debt and equity; a legal perspective
Normandin, Charles P. (1989)
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 33 , Pages 49-79

Working Paper
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in a World of Low Interest Rates
Cui, Wei; Bassetto, Marco (2017-11-16)
A central equation for the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) is the government budget constraint (or "government valuation equation"), which equates the real value of government debt to the present value of fiscal surpluses. In the past decade, the governments of most developed economies have paid very low interest rates, and there are many other periods in the past in which this has been the case. In this paper, we revisit the implications of the FTPL in a world where the rate of return on government debt may be below the growth rate of the economy, considering different sources for ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-25

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