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Potential Jobs Impacted by Covid-19
Aaronson, Daniel; Burkhardt, Helen; Faberman, R. Jason (2020-04-01)
In this blog, we conduct an exercise to determine the potential consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on near-term labor market outcomes. This is not a forecast, but an attempt to provide some discipline around potential bounds of the number of jobs impacted by the crisis. We estimate that between nine and 26 million jobs are potentially affected,1 with a best guess of around 15 million. If these jobs are lost, the June unemployment rate could reach between 14% and 18%, with a best guess of around 15%.
Chicago Fed Insights

A Closer Look at the Correlation Between Google Trends and Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fogarty, Michael; Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott A. (2020-06-17)
Since the onset of the pandemic, there has been growing interest in tracking labor market activity with “big data” sources like Google Trends.1 Just as an example, one can track how the number of Google searches with the term unemployment office has changed over the past week for the Chicago metro area or explore how unemployment became one of the top searched issues across the U.S. during the early months of the pandemic here.
Chicago Fed Insights

Journal Article
What are Banks Doing to Address the Impacts of COVID-19 on LMI Communities? Early Approaches to Addressing the Crisis
Shrimali, Bina (2020-04-07)
Lessons from history show that those who are most disadvantaged before a disaster are likely to be most vulnerable during a disaster as well as on the road to recovery. As the novel coronavirus continues to spread, we are witnessing heavy impacts on low- and moderate-income communities as small businesses shutter, workers are laid off, and more and more households find themselves in unexpected financial circumstances. Low-income individuals and households are more vulnerable to illness and potential economic disruption for a variety of reasons, including lower availability of paid sick leave ...
Community Development Research Brief , Issue 01 , Pages 01

Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from Covid-19 Stimulus Payments
Rajan, Aastha; Karger, Ezra (2020-10-08)
We identify 22,340 recipients of Covid-19 Economic Impact Payments in anonymized transaction-level debit card data from Facteus. We use an event study framework to show that in the two weeks following a sudden $1,200 payment from the IRS, consumers immediately increased spending by an average of $604, implying a marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of 50%. Consumer spending fell back to normal levels after two weeks. Stimulus recipients who live paycheck-to-paycheck spend 62% of the stimulus payment within two weeks, while recipients who save much of their monthly income spend only 35% of the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-15

Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from Covid-19 Stimulus Payments
Rajan, Aastha; Karger, Ezra (2021-02-21)
We identify 22,461 recipients of Covid-19 Economic Impact Payments in anonymized transaction-levelbank account data from Facteus. We use an event study framework to show that in the two weeks followinga $1,200 stimulus payment in April 2020, consumers increased spending by $546, implying a marginalpropensity to consume of 46%. Consumers used an additional 10% of the stimulus payment to pay offdebt. Consumer spending fell to normal levels after two weeks. Stimulus recipients who live paycheckto-paycheck spent 60% of the stimulus payment within two weeks, while recipients who save much oftheir ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-15

What Can Revisions to the NFCI Tell Us About Stock Market Volatility?
Fogarty, Michael; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Brave, Scott A. (2020-05-04)
In this blog post, we document that recent revisions to the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) have been large and clustered in time—a pattern not seen since the 2007–09 global financial crisis. As financial conditions tightened early on during the Covid-19 outbreak here in the U.S., there were large positive revisions to the NFCI through much of March. We show that revisions of this magnitude and in this direction have often preceded substantial increases in stock market volatility. More recently, in late March and April, the large negative revisions to the NFCI ...
Chicago Fed Insights

Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from Covid-19 Stimulus Payments
Rajan, Aastha; Karger, Ezra (2020-05-29)
We identify 16,016 recipients of Covid-19 Economic Impact Payments in anonymized transaction-level debit card data from Facteus. We use an event study framework to show that in the two weeks following a sudden $1,200 payment from the IRS, consumers immediately increased spending by an average of $577, implying a marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of 48%. Consumer spending falls back to normal levels after two weeks. Stimulus recipients who live paycheck-to-paycheck spend 68% of the stimulus payment immediately, while recipients who save much of their monthly income spend 23% of the stimulus ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-15

Working Paper
"The Great Retirement Boom": The Pandemic-Era Surge in Retirements and Implications for Future Labor Force Participation
Smith, Christopher L.; Montes, Joshua (2022-11-30)
As of October 2022, the retired share of the U.S. population was nearly 1-½ percentage points above its pre-pandemic level (after adjusting for updated population controls to the Current Population Survey), accounting for nearly all of the shortfall in the labor force participation rate. In this paper, we analyze the pandemic-era rise in retirements using a model that accounts for pre-pandemic trends in retirement, the cyclicality of retirement, and other factors. We show that: more than half of the increase in the retired share are â€œexcess retirementsâ€ that would likely not ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-081

Journal Article
The Great Resignation and the Paycheck Protection Program
Sahin, Aysegul; Tasci, Murat (2022-11-09)
A prominent feature of the US labor markets during the recovery from the COVID-19 recession was a high level of worker separations in the form of quits. This phenomenon, sometimes referred to as the Great Resignation, cannot be fully explained by the strength of the recovery. We show that firms that employ fewer than 250 individuals played a disproportionately larger role in generating excess quits during this episode. We further argue that the availability of Paycheck Protection Program funds might have prevented some “usual” reallocation from happening early on and thus subsequently ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2022 , Issue 15 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Do Stay-at-Home Orders Cause People to Stay at Home? Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Consumer Behavior
Alexander, Diane; Karger, Ezra (2020-04-17)
We link the county-level rollout of stay-at-home orders to anonymized cellphone records and consumer spending data. We document three patterns. First, stay-at-home orders caused people to stay at home: county-level measures of mobility declined by between 9% and 13% by the day after the stay-at-home order went into effect. Second, stay-at-home orders caused large reductions in spending in sectors associated with mobility: restaurants and retail stores. However, food delivery sharply increased after orders went into effect. Third, there is substantial county-level heterogeneity in consumer ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-12

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