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Keywords:Consumer price indexes 

Journal Article
PPI versus CPI inflation

National Economic Trends , Issue Feb

Discussion Paper
The global slack hypothesis

We illustrate the analytical content of the global slack hypothesis in the context of a variant of the widely used New Open-Economy Macro model of Clarida, Gal, and Gertler (2002) under the assumptions of both producer currency pricing and local currency pricing. The model predicts that the Phillips curve for domestic CPI inflation will be flatter under most plausible parameterizations, the more important international trade is to the domestic economy. The model also predicts that foreign output gaps will matter for inflation dynamics, along with the domestic output gap. We also show that the ...
Staff Papers , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Consumer price inflation and housing prices

National Economic Trends , Issue Apr

Working Paper
Some problems with current price indexes

Working Papers , Paper 1987-002

Working Paper
Introduction to price and productivity measurement for housing

This paper provides a brief introduction to a proposed new opportunity cost treatment of owner-occupied housing in measures of inflation for the United States. In addition, the paper introduces, and provides links to, a collection of nine other papers that discuss various aspects of the treatment of owner-occupied housing in measures of inflation for a number of nations, including Canada, Germany, Iceland, and the United States.
Working Papers , Paper 09-5

Working Paper
Implications of rounding and rebasing for empirical analysis using consumer price inflation

Monthly CPI inflation rates can be spuriously choppy when constructed using the official CPI, rebased with 1982-84=100. The problem can be traced to rounding that occurs when only one digit after the decimal place is reported in rebased CPI data. This paper compares three CPI measures to illustrate how rounding and rebasing introduce distortions that affect variance properties, alter lag specification in autoregressive models, and "flip" results of unit root tests. To reduce distortions, the paper recommends using either original release data or the CPI rebased with 1967=100.
Research Working Paper , Paper 99-08

Journal Article
Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?

From 1975 to 1980, inflation in core (nonfood and nonenergy) consumer prices rose sharply as crude oil prices more than tripled. Yet, as crude oil prices quadrupled from late 2001 to 2007, core consumer price inflation remained essentially flat. Some observers have attributed the stability of consumer price inflation in the more recent episode to the influence of long-term inflation expectations. While inflation expectations rose significantly in the second half of the 1970s, they remained largely unchanged from 2001 through 2007. The increased stability of inflation and long-term ...
Economic Review , Volume 93 , Issue Q I , Pages 17-50

Journal Article
Core CPI: excluding food, energy ... and used cars?

Although used car prices represent only a small portion of the consumer price index, their extreme volatility has had a major impact on the measured inflation rate. To explain this relationship, the authors describe how used cars are treated in the CPI and explore what might cause the wide swings in used car prices.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 2 , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Forecasting inflation? Target the middle

The Median CPI is well-known as an accurate predictor of future infl ation. But it?s just one of many possible trimmed-mean inflation measures. Recent research compares these types of measures to see which tracks future inflation best. Not only does the Median CPI outperform other trims in predicting CPI inflation, it also does a better job of predicting PCE inflation, the FOMC?s preferred measure, than the core PCE.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Do rising rents complicate inflation assessment?

In the face of falling house prices, decreasing rates of homeownership, and a glut of vacant homes, the Consumer Price Index?s measure of the cost of owner-occupied housing?owners? equivalent rent of residence (OER)?has begun to accelerate, rising at an annualized rate of 2.3 percent over the past six months. Given a backdrop of generally subdued underlying inflation elsewhere in the index, a persistent increase in the relative price of OER?the largest component of the consumer market basket by far?may create upward pressure on measured inflation.
Economic Commentary , Issue Feb

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