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Discussion Paper
Evaluating the Benefits of a Streamlined Refinance Program

Mortgage borrowers who have experienced employment disruptions as a result of theCOVID-19 pandemic are unable to refinance their loans to take advantage of historically low market rates. In this article, we analyze the effects of a streamlined refinance (“refi”) program for government-insured loans that would allow borrowers to refinance without needing to document employment or income. In addition, we consider a cash-out component that would allow borrowers to extract some of the substantial amount of housing equity that many have accumulated in recent years.
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-8

How Fast Are COVID-19 Death Rates Declining? U.S. vs. Other Countries

The U.S. death rate from COVID-19 has fallen considerably from its peak, but it isn’t falling as fast as the rates in other countries.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Demand for Density: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market

Cities are shaped by the strength of agglomeration and dispersion forces. We show that the COVID-19 pandemic has re-introduced disease transmission as a dispersion force in modern cities. We use detailed housing data to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the location demand for housing. We find that the pandemic has led to a greater decline in the demand for housing in neighborhoods with high population density. We further show that the reduced demand for density is partially driven by the diminished need of living close to jobs that are telework-compatible and the declining value ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024

Journal Article
Hit Harder, Recover Slower? Unequal Employment Effects of the COVID-19 Shock

The destructive economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was distributed unequally across the population. A worker's gender, race and ethnicity, age, education, industry, and occupation all mattered. We analyze the initial negative effect and its lingering effect through the recovery phase, across demographic and socioeconomic groups. The initial negative impact on employment was larger for women, minorities, the less educated, and the young whether or not we account for the industries and occupations they worked in. By February 2021, however, the differential effects across groups had gotten ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 367-383

Texas Economic Activity Suddenly Contracts in March; Outlook Worsens Due to COVID-19

The economic downturn in Texas has begun, recent data suggest.
Dallas Fed Economics

COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts

With schools closed due to COVID-19, many full-time workers may drop out of the labor force to take care of their children. Which groups of workers might be most affected?
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
State Revenues Hit Hard by COVID-19

The measures taken to slow the spread of COVID-19 have not only led to a sharp decline in employment and an unprecedented rise in unemployment but have negatively impacted state and local governments that depend on income and sales taxes as primary sources of revenue.
Regional Matters

Working Paper
Entry and Exit, Unemployment, and Macroeconomic Tail Risk

This paper builds a nonlinear business cycle model with endogenous firm entry and exit and equilibrium unemployment. The entry and exit mechanism generates asymmetry and amplifies the transmission of productivity shocks, exposing the economy to significant tail risk. When calibrating the rates of entry and exit to match their shares of job creation and destruction, our quantitative model generates higher-order moments consistent with U.S. data. Firm exit particularly amplifies the severity and persistence of deep recessions such as the COVID-19 crisis. In the absence of entry and exit, the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018

Journal Article
Measuring Deaths from COVID-19

Medical data are new to the analyses and deliberations of Federal Reserve monetary policymakers, but such data are now of primary importance to policymakers who need to understand the virus’s trajectory to assess economic conditions and address the virus’s impacts on the economy. The number of deaths caused by COVID-19 is one key metric that is often referred to, but as with other COVID metrics, it is a challenge to measure accurately. We discuss the issues involved in measuring COVID-19 deaths and argue that the change in the number of directly observed COVID-19 deaths is the most ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 18 , Pages 7

Payments and the Pandemic

It is a great pleasure being with you today as part of the 20th Anniversary Chicago Payments Symposium. Over the last two decades, this symposium has established itself as a valuable forum at which those interested in the payments system can gather to learn and share ideas. In recent years, the symposium has fostered important conversations between industry practitioners and policymakers. Those conversations have helped inform the Federal Reserve System’s initiative to improve and modernize the U.S. payments system. That work is ongoing and has reached important milestones this year, ...



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Bullard, James B. 33 items

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Akana, Tom 23 items

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