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Working Paper
The Jobs Effect of Ending Pandemic Unemployment Benefits: A State-Level Analysis

This paper uses the asynchronous cessation of emergency unemployment benefits (EUB) in 2021 to investigate the jobs impact of ending unemployment benefits. While some states stopped providing EUB in September, others stopped as early as June. Using the cessation month as an instrument, we estimate the effect on employment of reducing unemployment rolls. In the second month following a state’s program termination, for every 100 person reduction in beneficiaries, state employment causally increased by about 27 persons. The effect is statistically different from zero and robust to a wide array ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-010

From Gaps to Growth: Equity as a Path to Prosperity

Presentation to UCLA Anderson Forecast Webinar, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, September 29, 2021

Journal Article
The Lost Weeks of COVID-19 Testing in the United States: Part I

The weeks lost due to inaction in the U.S. during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in rationing of tests and a large number of confirmed cases.
Economic Synopses , Issue 24

Journal Article
College Freshman Enrollment Drops during Pandemic

First-time college enrollment declined significantly in 2020—a stark contrast with what traditionally happens during recessions.
The Regional Economist , Volume 29 , Issue 1

Journal Article
The Year of Living Dangerously: The COVID-19 Shock and the Probability of Deflation

With inflation currently low, the probability that it turns negative (deflation) will likely increase over the near term.
Economic Synopses , Issue 14

Evictions in New England and the Impact of Public Policy during the COVID-19 Pandemic

To stave off a flood of evictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was the feared outcome when millions of renting households were suddenly unemployed, Congress and many states implemented policies that included eviction moratoriums and federally funded rental-assistance programs. These programs succeeded in keeping millions of renters housed and driving eviction rates down in the early months of the pandemic. The number of evictions filed in New England declined 56 percent in 2020 and 39 percent in 2021 compared with the average number of evictions filed annually from 2017 through ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 2022-2

Journal Article
COVID-19: Fiscal Implications and Financial Stability in Developing Countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has been unlike any other crisis that we have experienced in that it hit all economies in the world at the same time, compromising the risk-sharing ability of nations. At the onset of the pandemic, the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) jointly pledged 1.16 trillion U.S. dollars to help emerging economies deal with COVID-19. Would this amount have been enough to preserve financial stability in a worst case scenario, and what were the fiscal implications of the pandemic? In this article we aim to answer these questions by documenting the size of the ...
Review , Volume 105 , Issue 3 , Pages 137-149

Discussion Paper
Consumers Increasingly Expect Additional Government Support amid COVID-19 Pandemic

The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its April 2020 SCE Public Policy Survey, which provides information on consumers' expectations regarding future changes to a wide range of fiscal and social insurance policies and the potential impact of these changes on their households. These data have been collected every four months since October 2015 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, households face significant uncertainty about their personal situations and the general economic environment when forming ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200526b

Discussion Paper
How Equitable Has the COVID Labor Market Recovery Been?

One of the two monetary policy goals of the Federal Reserve System— one-half of our dual mandate—is to aim for “maximum employment.” However, labor market outcomes are not monolithic, and different demographic and economic groups experience different labor market outcomes. In this post, we analyze heterogeneity in employment rates by race and ethnicity, focusing on the COVID-19 recession of March-April 2020 and its aftermath. We find that the demographic employment gaps temporarily increased during the onset of the pandemic but narrowed back by spring 2022 to close to where they were ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220630a

Desk Operations: The New Normal

Remarks at the Annual Primary Dealer Meeting (delivered via videoconference).



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