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Working Paper
Country spreads and emerging countries
Yue, Vivian Z.; Uribe, Martin (2003)
A number of studies have stressed the role of movements in U.S. interest rates and country spreads in driving business cycles in emerging market economies. At the same time, country spreads have been found to respond to changes in both the U.S. interest rate and domestic conditions in emerging markets. These intricate interrelationships leave open a number of fundamental questions: Do country spreads drive business cycles in emerging countries or vice versa, or both? Do U.S. interest rates affect emerging countries directly or primarily through their effect on country spreads? This paper ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2004-32

Working Paper
The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages
Fleischman, Charles A. (1999)
A model's ability to explain procyclical movements in real wages has become an important benchmark by which macroeconomists judge business cycle theories. Because Keynesian models with sticky nominal wages predict countercyclical real wages, they have been criticized and dismissed in favor of Real Business Cycle models or New Keynesian models based on price stickiness or countercyclical markups. The bulk of the evidence for procyclical real wages, however, comes from studies using panel data that estimate the unconditional, contemporaneous correlation between real wages and the unemployment ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-53

Working Paper
Recessions and recoveries in real business cycle models: do real business cycle models generate cyclical behavior?
Wynne, Mark A.; Balke, Nathan S. (1993)
Working Papers , Paper 9322

Working Paper
Measuring the cyclicality of real wages: how important is aggregation across industries?
Swanson, Eric T. (1999)
There is a growing consensus among economists that real wages in the postwar U.S. have been moderately to strongly procyclical, particularly in panel data on workers. From the point of view of hiring decisions of firms, however, this conclusion may be premature or even erroneous. Whether a firm's labor demand curve is stable or shifting at business cycle frequencies should be tested with a wage that is deflated by the firm's own price of output, with appropriate controls for the prices of intermediate inputs, and with respect to the cyclical state of the firm's own industry, as opposed to the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-52

Journal Article
Steady-as-she-goes? an analysis of the San Antonio business cycle
Phillips, Keith R.; Hamden, Kristen (2004)
Vista

Conference Paper
Taking intermediation seriously
Smith, Bruce D. (2003)
Proceedings

Journal Article
Ties that bind: bilateral trade's role in synchronizing business cycles
Ramanarayanan, Ananth (2009)
For most of the past year, economies in all parts of the world have been weakening--from outright recessions in the U.S. and parts of Europe to sharply slower growth in China, India and other emerging economies. The pattern provides the latest example of international business-cycle synchronization--the tendency for countries to experience macroeconomic fluctuations of similar timing and magnitude. ; While today's synchronization isn't unusual, it raises questions about the forces that transmit economic fluctuations from one country to another. An important factor to consider is international ...
Economic Letter , Volume 4

Working Paper
Heterogeneous forecasts and aggregate dynamics
Bomfim, Antúlio N. (2000)
Motivated by issues raised in both the finance and economics literatures, I construct a dynamic general equilibrium model where agents use differing degrees of sophistication when forecasting future economic conditions. All agents solve standard dynamic optimization problems and face strategic complementarity in production, but some solve their inference problems based on simple forecasting rules of thumb. Assuming a hierarchical information structure similar to the one in Townsend's (1983) model of informationally dispersed markets, I show that even a minority of rule-of-thumb forecasters ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2000-16

Discussion Paper
A computationally practical simulation estimator for panel data, with applications to labor supply and real wage movement over the business cycle
Keane, Michael P. (1989)
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 16

Speech
2025 Economic Outlook
Barkin, Tom (2025-01-03)
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a better-valued, more productive workforce has landed the economy in a good place.My baseline outlook is good. How economic policy uncertainty resolves will matter. But, with what we know today, I expect more upside than downside in terms of growth. I see more risk on the inflation side.The Fed remains well-positioned regardless of how the economy develops. Were employment to falter or inflation to re-emerge, we have the tools to respond.
Speech

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