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Working Paper
Economic Uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Altig, David E.; Baker, Scott Brent; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nick; Bunn, Philip; Chen, Scarlet; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Mizen, Paul; Parker, Nicholas B.; Renault, Thomas; Smietanka, Pawel; Thwaites, Gregory (2020-07-10)
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the United States and the UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and disagreement among professional forecasters about future gross domestic product growth. Three results emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most indicators reach their highest values on record. Second, peak ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-9

Report
Global variance term premia and intermediary risk appetite
Van Tassel, Peter; Vogt, Erik (2016-08-12)
Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected variances and term premia. Empirically, we document a strong global factor structure in variance term premia across the U.S., U.K., Europe, and Japan. We further show that variance term premia are negatively correlated with the risk appetite of hedge funds, broker-dealers, and mutual funds. Our results ...
Staff Reports , Paper 789

Speech
Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits
Goldberg, Linda S. (2022-11-10)
Remarks at the International Monetary Fund, 23rd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference.
Speech

Working Paper
Globalization and Heterogeneity: Evidence from Hollywood
Adler, Konrad; Fuchs, Simon (2022-10-06)
Linder (1961) conjectured that taste differences could impede trade flows. We extend Krugman (1980) to allow for producers that face taste heterogeneity with volatile demand. Consumers are characterized by different taste over product attributes and idiosyncratic risk. Firms face a portfolio type of problem where they trade off supplying the largest consumer groups against higher exposure to group-specific risk. We develop an empirical strategy to estimate consumer taste from observed market shares across multiple distinct markets of the same product, as well as the key parameters that pin ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2022-14

Report
Deposit Specialization and Lending Behavior
Blickle, Kristian S.; Parlatore, Cecilia; Saunders, Anthony (2025-12-01)
We examine how banks’ depositor composition shapes lending behavior, using granular supervisory data on deposits, loans, and securities for the largest U.S. banks. Classifying banks by depositor specialization, we find persistent differences in funding that translate to differences in asset allocations. Retail-depositor oriented banks hold longer-maturity loans and conduct more real estate lending, while corporate- and NBFI-oriented banks, whose funding is more volatile, hold shorter loans and liquid securities. Loan-level analyses show that stable funding is associated with lower rates, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1175

Working Paper
Attention and a Paradox of Uncertainty
Chiang, Yu-Ting (2024-10-08)
I show that macroeconomic uncertainty during recessions can arise from people paying more attention to aggregate events. When information is dispersed, people's attempts to acquire more information can lead to higher aggregate volatility, forecast dispersion, and uncertainty about aggregate output. Information rigidity is reduced, consistent with evidence in forecast surveys, and distinct from the prediction of exogenous volatility shocks. When the model is calibrated to U.S. data, endogenous attention accounts for half of the observed fluctuations in volatility, forecast dispersion, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-004

Financial Market Volatility in the Spring of 2025
Neely, Christopher J. (2025-06-20)
In April 2025, U.S. financial markets experienced a sharp, temporary rise in volatility. How did this level of volatility compare with the levels seen in other periods since 1990?
On the Economy

Working Paper
Are Concerns About Leveraged ETFs Overblown?
Lenkey, Stephen L.; Ivanov, Ivan T. (2014-11-19)
Leveraged and inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been heavily criticized for exacerbating volatility in financial markets because it is thought that they mechanically rebalance their portfolios in the same direction as contemporaneous returns. We argue that these criticisms are likely exaggerated because they ignore the effects of capital flows on ETF rebalancing demand. Empirically, we find that capital flows substantially reduce the need for ETFs to rebalance when returns are large in magnitude and, therefore, mitigate the potential for these products to amplify volatility. We also ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-106

Report
Liquidity and volatility in the U.S. treasury market
Fleming, Michael J.; Nguyen, Giang; Engle, Robert; Ghysels, Eric (2012-12-01)
We model the joint dynamics of intraday liquidity, volume, and volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, especially through the 2007-09 financial crisis and around important economic announcements. Using various specifications based on Bauwens and Giot?s (2000) Log- ACD(1,1) model, we find that liquidity, volume, and volatility are highly persistent, with volatility having a lower short-term persistence than the other two. Market liquidity and volume are important to explaining volatility dynamics but not vice versa. In addition, market dynamics change during the financial crisis, with all ...
Staff Reports , Paper 590

Briefing
How Female Labor Supply Shapes Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics
Karabarbounis, Marios (2024-02)
In this article, we detail key aspects of female labor supply and how it shapes aggregate labor market dynamics. We start by documenting several important features of female labor supply including labor market participation, business cycle volatility, responsiveness to the underlying economic environment and its role for insurance within the household. For this article, we relied on Michele Tertilt and Matthias Doepke's excellent survey "Families in Macroeconomics."
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 24 , Issue 04

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