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Discussion Paper
Will the U.S. Dollar Continue to Dominate World Trade?
Amiti, Mary; Itskhoki, Oleg; Konings, Jozef (2022-06-21)
There are around 180 currencies in the world, but only a very small number of them play an outsized role in international trade, finance, and central bank foreign exchange reserves. In the modern era, the U.S. dollar has a dominant international presence, followed to a lesser extent by the euro and a handful of other currencies. Although the use of specific currencies is remarkably stable over time, with the status of dominant currencies remaining unchanged over decades, there have been decisive shifts in the international monetary system over long horizons. For example, the British pound ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220621

Trade Wars, Tech Rivalry and Geopolitical Tensions
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Moore, Samuel (2024-09-03)
An analysis of 'geopolitical distance' and exports highlights the links between geopolitical alignment and access to U.S. technology and goods.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Leibovici, Fernando; Adamopoulos, Tasso (2024-02)
We study the role of international trade risk for food security, the patterns of production and trade across sectors, and its implications for policy. We document that food import dependence across countries is associated with higher food insecurity, particularly in low-income countries. We provide causal evidence on the role of trade risk for food security by exploiting the exogeneity of the Ukraine-Russia war as a major trade disruption limiting access to imports of critical food products. Using micro-level data from Ethiopia, we empirically show that districts relatively more exposed to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-004

Report
The Dollar’s Imperial Circle
Pelin, Serra; Benigno, Gianluca; Akinci, Ozge; Turek, Jonathan (2022-12-01)
In this paper we highlight a new channel through which dollar fluctuations can become a self-fulfilling pro-cyclical force. We call this mechanism “Imperial Circle” as it makes the dollar the dominant macroeconomic variable in the context of the current international monetary system. At the core of it, there is a fundamental asymmetry between the shrinking exposure of the “real” U.S. economy to global developments versus the growing global role of the U.S. dollar. Dollar appreciation leads to a decline in global economic activity, which in turn benefits, in relative terms, the dollar ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1045

Speech
Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy
Musalem, Alberto G. (2025-05-20)
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem shared his views on the economic outlook and implications for monetary policy at an Economic Club of Minnesota event in Minneapolis. He gave a speech, “Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy,” and participated in a moderated Q&A.
Speech

Working Paper
Trade and Inequality in an Overlapping Generations Model with Capital Accumulation
Ravikumar, B.; Sposi, Michael; Nie, Jun (2024-09-23)
We study the lifecycle aspect of within-country inequality that stems from capital and labor services supplied by individuals. Our environment is a combination of a multicountry trade model and an overlapping generations model with production and capital accumulation. Trade liberalization increases the measured total factor productivity in each country, which increases the marginal product of capital and incentivizes capital accumulation. Higher capital stock and higher measured productivity raise the marginal product of labor and, hence, wages. Inequality, measured by the ratio of old ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-018

Capital flowed from emerging markets as pandemic, economic cycle took hold
Davis, J. Scott; Zlate, Andrei (2023-03-07)
Fluctuations in the global financial cycle, reflecting impacts from the COVID crisis, account for roughly one-third of the movement in emerging-market inflows during 2020–23.
Dallas Fed Economics

Speech
Testimony before the U.S. Trade Deficit Review Commission
McTeer, Robert D. (2000-01-21)
Testimony before the U.S. Trade Deficit Review Commission in Dallas.
Speeches and Essays

Working Paper
Goods-Market Frictions and International Trade
McCallum, Andrew H.; Krolikowski, Pawel (2016-12-23)
We present a tractable framework that embeds goods-market frictions in a general equilibrium dynamic model with heterogeneous exporters and identical importers. These frictions arise because it takes time and expense for exporters and importers to meet. We show that search frictions lead to an endogenous fraction of unmatched exporters, alter the gains from trade, endogenize entry costs, and imply that the competitive equilibrium does not generally result in the socially optimal number of searching firms. Finally, ignoring search frictions results in biased estimates of the effect of tariffs ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1635

Discussion Paper
What Is the Outlook for China’s External Surplus?
Clark, Hunter L.; Higgins, Matthew (2022-10-17)
The sharp slowdown in China’s property sector has reignited debate over the country’s future role as a net provider of savings to the global economy. The debate revolves around whether a sustained decline in property investment will spur a long-term increase in China’s current account surplus, given the country’s high savings rate. However, China’s rapidly aging population presents opposing forces that complicate this story. The shift of a large share of its population from working life to retirement will reduce savings supply even as a shrinking labor force will reduce investment ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20221017

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