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Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Leibovici, Fernando; Adamopoulos, Tasso (2024-02)
We study the role of international trade risk for food security, the patterns of production and trade across sectors, and its implications for policy. We document that food import dependence across countries is associated with higher food insecurity, particularly in low-income countries. We provide causal evidence on the role of trade risk for food security by exploiting the exogeneity of the Ukraine-Russia war as a major trade disruption limiting access to imports of critical food products. Using micro-level data from Ethiopia, we empirically show that districts relatively more exposed to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-004

Speech
When the Map No Longer Matches the Terrain
Nistor, Mihaela (2025-06-04)
Remarks at the XLoD Global – New York Conference, New York City.
Speech

Working Paper
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters
Owyang, Michael T.; Coroneo, Laura; Jackson, Laura E. (2020-03-27)
We examine international stock return comovements of country-industry portfolios. Our model allows comovements to be driven by a global and a cluster component, with the cluster membership endogenously determined. Results indicate that country-industry portfolios tend to cluster mainly within geographical areas that can include one or more countries. The cluster compositions substantially changed over time, with the emergence of clusters among European countries from the early 2000s. The cluster component was the main driver of country-industry portfolio returns for most of the sample, except ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-038

Journal Article
Risk of Business Insolvency during Coronavirus Crisis
Kwan, Simon H.; Friesenhahn, Sophia M. (2020-10-05)
Many businesses had amassed high levels of debt, or leverage, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Out of precaution or necessity, firms increased their borrowing further after the onset. Although the shock to those firms’ value significantly increased their risk, measured by their distance-to-default, the default risk remains relatively small for most corporate debt. Nevertheless, the amount of outstanding liabilities among firms with elevated risk of insolvency is more than two times higher than at the peak of the global financial crisis.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 30 , Pages 01-05

Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Adamopoulos, Tasso; Leibovici, Fernando (2025-10-30)
International trade provides critical access to food, yet many food-importing countries protect agriculture even where productivity is low. We study how the risk of trade disruptions shapes food security, the global distribution of production, and optimal policy. We document that reliance on imported staples is linked to higher food insecurity, particularly in poorer countries. Exploiting the Ukraine–Russia war, we find that districts in Ethiopia more exposed to disrupted imports suffered sharper declines in food security. We develop a multi-sector model of trade with stochastic trade costs ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-004

Briefing
Are Some Homebuyers Strategically Transferring Climate Risks to Lenders?
Phan, Toan (2022-04)
Recent empirical research suggests that certain homebuyers may be strategically transferring climate risks to banks via the mortgage market, and banks may be transferring such risks to government-sponsored enterprises via securitization. The evidence highlights the nuanced ways in which participants in the financial markets strategically adapt to climate change.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 14

Report
International Trade, Risk and the Role of Banks
Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Niepmann, Friederike (2013-09-01)
Banks play a critical role in international trade by providing trade finance products that reduce the risk of exporting. This paper employs two new data sets to shed light on the magnitude and structure of this business, which, as we show, is highly concentrated in a few large banks. The two principal trade finance instruments, letters of credit and documentary collections, covered about 10 percent of U.S. exports in 2012. They are preferred for larger transactions, which indicates the existence of substantial fixed costs in the provision and use of these instruments. Letters of credit are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 633

Speech
Thoughts on cybersecurity from a supervisory perspective: remarks at SIPA’s Cyber Risk to Financial Stability: State-of-the-Field Conference 2019, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Stiroh, Kevin J. (2019-04-12)
Remarks at SIPA?s Cyber Risk to Financial Stability: State-of-the-Field Conference 2019, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 317

Discussion Paper
Financial Intermediaries and Pressures on International Capital Flows
Goldberg, Linda S.; Hirschhorn, Samantha (2025-09-22)
Global factors, like monetary policy rates from advanced economies and risk conditions, drive fluctuations in volumes of international capital flows and put pressure on exchange rates. The components of international capital flows that are described as global liquidity—consisting of cross-border bank lending and financing of issuance of international debt securities—have sensitivities to risk conditions that have evolved considerably over time. This risk sensitivity has been driven, in part, by the composition and business models of the financial institutions involved in funding. In this ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250922

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