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Newsletter
Helping Homeowners During the Covid-19 Pandemic: Lessons from the Great Recession
Dynan, Karen E.; Dokko, Jane K.; Amromin, Gene (2020-06-30)
The Covid-19 public health crisis has sharply reduced the earnings of millions of U.S. households, following the severe curtailment of economic activity needed to contain the spread of the virus. Meanwhile, households continue to confront their ongoing financial obligations. The ability of households to manage these obligations has important consequences for the speed at which the U.S. economy can recover from the current crisis. Households that are wiped out financially in the coming months will not be in a position to strongly resume spending once the virus containment issues have passed. ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 443

Were Fourth District Local Governments Ready for a Recession? How the Great Recession Influenced How Much They Save
Whitaker, Stephan; Johnson, Cornelius (2020-10-22)
While almost no one anticipated the pandemic-induced shutdown of economic activity experienced this year, local government officials know that the business cycle will sooner or later pull down tax revenues. During years of expansion, cities and counties should be setting aside resources that will enable them to lessen the cuts necessary to balance their budgets during a recession. How prepared were the local governments of the Cleveland Fed’s Fourth District for the COVID-19 crisis?1 Looking at the most recent data available for a sample of the District’s largest cities and counties, we ...
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief

Journal Article
Regional Spotlight: The State of the States
Flora, Paul R. (2016-10)
The U.S. economy has been expanding for seven years ? but don?t tell that to a handful of states that have suffered recessions recently. Paul R. Flora discusses how Philadelphia Fed indexes may aid in the tricky business of identifying recession patterns among the 50 states.
Regional Spotlight , Issue Q4 , Pages 8-15

Discussion Paper
Virginia's Employment Recovery: Now And Then
Mengedoth, Joseph (2024-09-05)
In the United States, the pace of job growth has slowed over the last several months and compared to earlier in the post-pandemic recovery. Job growth in Virginia has slowed, too, but not as much. In fact, Virginia has outpaced the nation consistently since February, and this has not been the case for much of the last several years.Over the course of the post-pandemic jobs recovery, Virginia's month over month job gains were more often smaller than the national average. From January 2021 to December 2023, for example, the monthly percentage increase in Virginia either matched or was lower ...
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
Racial and Income Gaps in Consumer Spending following COVID-19
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Topa, Giorgio (2021-05-13)
This post is the first in a two-part series that seeks to understand whether consumer spending patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic evolved differentially across counties by race and income. As the pandemic hit and social distancing restrictions were put into place in March 2020, consumer spending plummeted. Subsequently, as social distancing restrictions began to be relaxed later in spring 2020, consumer spending started to rebound. We find that higher-income counties had a considerably steeper decline and a shallower recovery than low-income counties did. The differences by race were also ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210513a

The Real State of Family Wealth: Will COVID-19 Worsen Racial, Educational and Generational Gaps in the U.S.?
Kent, Ana Hernández; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Emmons, William R. (2020-11-19)
A new quarterly assessment tracks the pandemic’s impact on wealth trends by demographic groups.
On the Economy

Report
Abbott and Bacon Districts: education finances during the Great Recession
Sutherland, Sarah; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2012)
In the State of New Jersey, any child between the age of five and eighteen has the constitutional right to a thorough and efficient education. The State of New Jersey also has one of the country?s most rigid policies regarding a balanced budget come fiscal end. When state and local revenues took a big hit in the most recent recession, officials had to make tough decisions about education spending. This paper exploits rich panel data and trend-shift analysis to analyze how school finances in the Abbott and Bacon School Districts, as well as the high-poverty districts in general, were affected ...
Staff Reports , Paper 573

Journal Article
Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?
Glick, Reuven; Kouchekinia, Noah; Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2021-07-12)
Household surveys indicate that consumers expect higher inflation this year than in recent years, as the U.S. economy rebounds from the deep recession. This has coincided with a surge in commodity prices, as strong demand for goods like gas, food, and construction materials is catching producers with low supplies. Evidence suggests that households respond to commodity price increases by raising their expectations of future inflation. However, since surges in commodity prices are transitory, their effects on inflation expectations—particularly long-term expectations—are modest and ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 19 , Pages 06

Working Paper
The Beige Book and the Business Cycle: Using Beige Book Anecdotes to Construct Recession Probabilities
Martorana, Joseph; Gascon, Charles S. (2024-12-06)
The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book prior to each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The report is a narrative based on anecdotal and qualitative information collected from a wide range of contacts in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. We take the lexicon approach to text analysis to create sentiment indexes that track changes in economic conditions from the very first Beige Book in May 1970 to the most recent (at the time of writing) in October 2024. We create additional indexes to account for various current-event shocks, such as political events or natural disasters that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-037

Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells
Silos, Pedro; Fang, Lei (2020-07-13)
This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, after an unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage rowth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-09

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