Search Results
Working Paper
Sectoral Shocks, Reallocation, and Labor Market Policies
Unemployment insurance and wage subsidies are key tools to support labor markets in recessions. We develop a multi-sector search and matching model with on-the-job human capital accumulation to study labor market policy responses to sector-specific shocks. Our calibration accounts for structural differences in labor markets between the United States and the euro area, including a lower job-finding rate in the latter. We use the model to evaluate unemployment insurance and wage subsidy policies in recessions of different duration. We find that, after a temporary sector-specific shock, ...
Working Paper
The 2025 Trade War: Dynamic Impacts Across U.S. States and the Global Economy
We use a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of the recent increase in the U.S. tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, as well as the “reciprocal” tariff changes announced on “Liberation Day” and retaliatory measures by other countries. Higher tariffs trigger an expansion in U.S. manufacturing employment, but this comes at the expense of declines in service and agricultural employment, with overall employment declining as lower real wages reduce labor-force participation. For the ...
Working Paper
Automation, Market Concentration, and the Labor Share
Since the early 2000s, a rising share of production has been concentrated in a small number of superstar firms. We argue that the rise of automation technologies and the cross-sectional variation of robot use rates have contributed to the increases in industrial concentration. Motivated by empirical evidence, we build a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous automation decisions, and variable markups. Firms choose between two types of technologies, one uses workers only and the other uses both workers and robots subject to an idiosyncratic fixed cost of robot ...
Working Paper
The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows
We study empirically and theoretically the effects of international financial flows on resource allocation. Using the universe of firms in Hungary, we show that removing capital controls lowers firms’ cost of capital and increases household consumption, with the latter playing a dominant role. The consumption channel leads to reallocation of resources toward high expenditure elasticity activities—such as services—promoting both the expansion of incumbents and firm entry. A multi-sector heterogeneous firm model replicates these dynamics. Our model shows that non-homotheticity in ...
Working Paper
Trends and cycles in China's macroeconomy
We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend and cycle. Third, we build a theoretical model that accounts for these facts. Fourth, the model's mechanism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive Chinese characteristics. We argue that preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for ...
Report
Brand Reallocation and Market Concentration
We study the interaction of customer capital and productivity through brand reallocation across firms. We develop a firm dynamics model with brands as transferable customer capital, heterogeneous firm productivity, and variable markups. We study the matching process between transferable brand capital and core productivity, which can be inefficient with significant welfare implications. We link USPTO trademark data with Nielsen sales data to study the prevalence of brand reallocation and the response of sales and prices to reallocation. Quantitatively, brand reallocation reduces welfare. ...
Working Paper
Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages
We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—excess unemployment from a mismatch between sectors where job seekers search for work and sectors where jobs are available—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery. We find that the mismatch index turned negative at the onset of the pandemic for the first time since 2000, suggesting that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more productive jobs, even at the expense of fewer hires. We show that sectoral differences in job ...
Working Paper
International Diversification, Reallocation, and the Labor Share
How does growing international financial diversification affect firm-level and aggregate labor shares? We study this question using a novel framework of firm labor choice in the face of aggregate risk. The theory implies a cross-section of labor risk premia and labor shares that appear as markups in firm-level data. International risk sharing leads to a reallocation of labor towards riskier/low labor share firms alongside a rise in within-firm labor shares, matching key micro-level facts. We use cross-country firm-level data to document a number of empirical patterns consistent with the ...
Working Paper
Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages
We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—employment losses relative to an efficient allocation where the planner can costlessly reallocate unemployed workers across sectors to maximize output—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery episode characterized by labor shortages. We find that, for the first time in our sample, mismatch unemployment turned negative at the onset of the pandemic. This result suggests that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more-productive jobs, ...
Working Paper
Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages
We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—employment losses relative to an efficient allocation where the planner can costlessly reallocate unemployed workers across sectors to maximize output—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery episode characterized by labor shortages. We find that, for the first time in our sample, mismatch unemployment turned negative at the onset of the pandemic. This result suggests that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more-productive jobs, ...