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Journal Article
The Rise of Asia as a Destination for U.S. Patenting
China has become one of the main destinations where U.S. inventors seek to protect their intellectual property.
Transfer Pricing of Intangible Assets: Evidence from Patent Data
To reduce their tax exposure, multinationals may seek to shift profits to countries with lower tax rates. Do patents play a role in this strategy?
Working Paper
The Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on U.S. Multinationals’ Intangible Assets
This paper investigates the impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) on U.S. multinationals’ intangibles. We develop a theoretical model that incorporates key provisions of the TCJA—the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) and the Foreign-Derived Intangible Income (FDII)—and derive testable implications for changes in licensing and patent transfer patterns. Using data on international royalty flows and patent assignments, we test the model’s predictions. Our findings suggest that the TCJA may have impacted profit shifting strategies through intangibles, aligning with our ...
Working Paper
Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic
Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease—on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large US cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge ...
Working Paper
Lags, Leave-Outs and Fixed Effects
To avoid endogeneity, financial economists often construct regressors and/or instruments using values from other observations, with lagged and leave-out variables being common examples. We examine the use of such variables in common settings with fixed effects and show that it can induce bias and distort inference. We illustrate the severity of this problem via simulations and with patent examiner data. Even when scrambling the patent examiners, thus removing any instrument validity, the bias leads to a first-stage F-statistic over 1,000. General and case-specific solutions are provided.
Working Paper
Barriers to Creative Destruction: Large Firms and Nonproductive Strategies
This working paper reviews recent empirical evidence on large firms and nonproductivestrategies that hinder creative destruction and reallocation. The focus is on three types ofnonproductive strategies: political connections, nonproductive patenting, and anticompetitiveacquisitions. Across different contexts using granular micro data sets, we overwhelmingly see that asfirms gain market share, they increasingly rely on nonproductive strategies but reduce theirproductive, innovation-based strategies. I also discuss theoretical channels, aggregate implications,and potentials for some policies.
From Partner to Rival: Understanding China’s Technological Rise through Patent Data
A new measure of patent similarity shows China shifting its international patents toward technology-intensive industries traditionally dominated by developed nations.
Working Paper
Bubbles and the Value of Innovation
Episodes of booming innovation coincide with intense speculation in financial markets leading to bubbles—increases in market valuations and firm creation followed by a crash. We provide a framework reproducing these facts that makes a rich set of predictions on how speculation changes both the private and social values of innovation. We confirm the theory in the universe of U.S. patents issued from 1926 through 2010. Measures based on financial market information indicate that speculation increases the private value of innovation and reduces negative spillovers to competing firms. No ...
Working Paper
The Paper Trail of Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from Patent Interferences [REVISED]
REVISED 9/2019: We show evidence of localized knowledge spillovers using a new database of multiple invention from U.S. patent interferences terminated between 1998 and 2014. Patent interferences resulted when two or more independent parties simultaneously submitted identical claims of invention to the U.S. Patent Office. Following the idea that inventors of identical inventions share common knowledge inputs, interferences provide a new method for measuring spillovers of tacit knowledge compared with existing (and noisy) measures such as citation links. Using matched pairs of inventors to ...
Journal Article
Uneven Innovation in the U.S.
The San Jose and San Francisco areas don’t make the U.S. top 10 in terms of population, and they each contain merely 1% of the national workforce. But jointly they produce about 20% of all innovation output.