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Report
Time variation in asset price responses to macro announcements
Grisse, Christian; Goldberg, Linda S. (2013-08-01)
Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high-frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011. Significant time variation in news effects is present for those announcements that have the largest effects on asset prices. The time variation in effects is explained by economic conditions, including the level of policy rates at the time of the news release, and risk conditions: Government bond yields ...
Staff Reports , Paper 626

Speech
Bullard Talks with The Economist about Inflation, U.S. Economy Growth
Bullard, James B. (2022-05-25)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discussed the Fed’s approach to raising rates to help manage inflation and what he anticipates for U.S. economic growth, during a podcast for The Economist.
Speech

Journal Article
Is the Last Mile More Arduous?
Rapach, David E. (2024-01-16)
US inflation surged starting in spring 2021, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reaching a 40-year high of 9 percent in mid-2022. Together with improving supply-chain conditions, policy tightening by the Fed decreased inflation to within 1 to 2 percentage points of its 2 percent target by late 2023 without a significant increase in unemployment. However, concerns have been raised that the last mile of disinflation to reduce inflation consistently to its 2 percent target will be more arduous than the previous miles. Close examination of such concerns indicates that they do not receive ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2024 , Issue 1

High inflation disproportionately hurts low-income households
Jayashankar, Aparna; Murphy, Anthony (2023-01-10)
Household survey results do not support Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman's recent suggestion that low-income families “have actually been hurt less by inflation than families with higher incomes.”
Dallas Fed Economics

Speech
Remarks for the Panel Discussion “Why Did We Miscast Inflation?”
Collins, Susan M. (2023-02-24)
Inflation remains too high, and recent data – including several strong labor market indicators, as well as faster than expected retail sales and producer price inflation – all reinforce my view that we have more work to do, to bring inflation down to the 2 percent target. While optimistic there is a path to restoring price stability without a significant downturn, I am also well aware of the many risks and uncertainties, including the risk of a self-fulfilling loss of business and consumer confidence.
Speech

Working Paper
News and Uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey Evidence and Short-Run Economic Impact
Kuester, Keith; Schoenle, Raphael; Dietrich, Alexander; Muller, Gernot J. (2021-12-22)
A tailor-made survey documents consumer perceptions of the U.S. economy’s response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumer views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty amplifies the pandemic recession by a factor of three. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-12R

Speech
Among Opposing Forces
Evans, Charles L. (2008-08-15)
Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago McLean County Chamber of Commerce, Bloomington, Illinois
Speech , Paper 19

Speech
Bullard Speaks with Bloomberg about Inflation, Monetary Policy
Bullard, James B. (2021-04-12)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discussed his expectations for economic growth and inflation in 2021. He also discussed various aspects of U.S. monetary policy during an appearance on Bloomberg Radio and TV.
Speech

Journal Article
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
Daly, Mary C. (2022-04-22)
The inflation outlook combined with a strong labor market leave no doubt that further monetary policy tightening is appropriate. The question is, how much and how quickly? The appropriate path of policy confronts the economic headwinds immediately ahead while also laying the groundwork for the economy we want in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Center for Business and Economic Research, at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 10 , Pages 6

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