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Journal Article
The minimum wage debate: always off course
McKenzie, Richard B. (1999-07)
Southwest Economy , Issue Jul , Pages 8-13

Working Paper
Do minimum wages raise the NAIRU?
Tulip, Peter (2000)
A high minimum wage (relative to average wages) raises nominal wage growth and hence inflation. This effect can be offset by extra unemployment; so the minimum wage increases the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment or NAIRU. This effect is clearly discernible and robust to variations in model specification and sample period. It is consistent with international comparisons and the behavior of prices. I estimate that the reduction in the relative level of the minimum wage over the last two decades accounts for a reduction in the NAIRU of about 1 1/2 percentage points. It can also ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2000-38

Working Paper
Wage Shocks and the Technological Substitution of Low-Wage Job
Phelan, Brian J.; Aaronson, Daniel (2017-01-15)
We extend the task-based empirical framework used in the job polarization literature to analyze the susceptibility of low-wage employment to technological substitution. We find that increases in the cost of low-wage labor, via minimum wage hikes, lead to relative employment declines at cognitively routine occupations but not manually-routine or non-routine low-wage occupations. This suggests that low-wage routine cognitive tasks are susceptible to technological substitution. While the short-run employment consequence of this reshuffling on individual workers is economically small, due to ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-3

Newsletter
How does a federal minimum wage hike affect aggregate household spending?
Aaronson, Daniel; French, Eric (2013-08)
This article finds that a federal minimum wage hike would boost the real income and spending of minimum wage households. The impact could be sufficient to offset increasing consumer prices and declining real spending by most non-minimum-wage households and, therefore, lead to an increase in aggregate household spending. The authors calculate that a $1.75 hike in the hourly federal minimum wage could increase the level of real gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 0.3 percentage points in the near term, but with virtually no effect in the long term.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Aug

Report
The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Labor Market Policies
Hurst, Erik; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Pastorino, Elena; Winberry, Thomas (2025-03-28)
We develop a dynamic macroeconomic framework with worker heterogeneity, putty-clay adjustment frictions, and firm monopsony power to study the distributional impact of labor market policies over time. Our framework reconciles the well-known tension between low short-run and high long-run elasticities of substitution across inputs of production, especially among workers with different skills within a same education group. We use this framework to evaluate the effects of redistributive policies such as the minimum wage and the Earned Income Tax Credit. We argue that since these policies ...
Staff Report , Paper 668

Working Paper
The minimum wage and Latino workers
Zavodny, Madeline; Orrenius, Pia M. (2007)
Because Latinos comprise a large and growing share of the low-skilled labor force in the U.S., Latinos may be disproportionately affected by minimum wage laws. We compare the effects of minimum wage laws on employment and earnings among Hispanic immigrants and natives compared with non-Hispanic whites and blacks. We focus on adults who have not finished high school and on teenagers, groups likely to earn low wages. Conventional economic theory predicts that higher minimum wages lead to higher hourly earnings among people who are employed but lower employment rates. Data from the Current ...
Working Papers , Paper 0708

Journal Article
What Happens When the Minimum Wage Rises? It Depends on Monetary Policy
Glover, Andrew; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2021-09-02)
Andrew Glover and José Mustre-del-Río examine how monetary policy may amplify or dampen the response of employment and inflation to an increase in the minimum wage. Their model-based analysis suggests a minimum wage increase has expansionary effects on the economy if the central bank is relatively unresponsive to current inflation, and contractionary effects if the central bank responds more aggressively (more than one-for-one) to current inflation. More generally, their framework suggests that if an increase in the minimum wage engenders contractionary effects, the central bank can ...
Economic Review , Volume 106 , Issue no.3 , Pages 5-24

Journal Article
Seeking Common Ground Through E-Mail (And Finding Our Hardheaded Hearts)
McTeer, Robert D. (2001)
Remarks by Bob McTeer, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, before the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas conference "New Roads and E-Roads: Market Innovations in Community Development," Dallas, August 24, 2001.
e-Perspectives , Volume 1 , Issue 4

Journal Article
The minimum wage
Valletta, Robert G. (1996)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Minimum wage careers?
Fallick, Bruce; Carrington, William J. (1999)
This paper investigates the extent to which people spend careers on minimum wage jobs. We find that a small but non-trivial number of NLSY respondents spend 25%, 50%, or even 75% of the first ten years of their career on minimum or near-minimum wage jobs. Workers with these minimum wage careers tend to be drawn from groups such as women, blacks, and the less-educated that are generally overrepresented in the low-wage population. The results indicate that lifetime incomes of some workers may be supported by a minimum wage. At the same time, these same groups would be disproportionately ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-46

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