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Journal Article
Assessing Labor Market Conditions Using High-Frequency Data
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Isaacson, Maggie (2021-10-18)
When the COVID-19 pandemic struck in March 2020, the U.S. economy experienced a sharp, unexpected recession with large employment losses. The information on employment available from traditional data sources arrives with a lag and does not promptly reflect sudden changes in labor market conditions. In this article, we discuss how new high-frequency data from Homebase and Ultimate Kronos Group can offer critical information on the state of labor markets in real time. Using these datasets, we construct coincident employment indices to assess employment at a high frequency. Employment during the ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 461-476

Speech
Bullard Discusses U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy during UBS Panel
Bullard, James B. (2021-11-09)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard shared his views on various aspects of the U.S. economy and monetary policy during a panel discussion at the UBS European Conference 2021.Bullard said he thinks that U.S. real GDP growth coming in softer than expected in the third quarter is “a temporary phenomenon,” with growth being pushed out to the fourth quarter and through next year. He expects real GDP growth to be higher than 4% for all of 2022.In discussing the very tight labor market in the U.S., Bullard cited the unemployment-to-vacancies ratio, the unemployment rate and a labor market ...
Speech

Journal Article
COVID-19 Containment Measures, Health and the Economy
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2021-02-19)
While COVID-19-related restrictions in 2020 spurred short-term rises in unemployment, states with stricter measures saw faster labor market recoveries.
The Regional Economist , Volume 29 , Issue 1

Working Paper
International trade and labor reallocation: misclassification errors, mobility, and switching costs
Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2022-08-12)
Over the last few decades, international trade has increased at a rapid pace, altering domestic production and labor demand in different sectors of the economy. A growing literature studies the heterogeneous effects of trade shocks on workers’ employment and on welfare when reallocation decisions are costly. The estimated effects critically depend on data on workers’ reallocation patterns, which is typically plagued with coding errors. In this paper, I study the consequences of misclassification errors for estimates of the labor market effects of international trade and show that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-014

The Great Retirement: Who Are the Retirees?
Rodgers, William M.; Ricketts, Lowell R. (2022-01-04)
Millions of U.S. workers age 65 and older have exited the labor market during the pandemic. Who is more likely to retire?
On the Economy

Inflation, Softer Jobs Market Challenge Vulnerable Workers
Rodgers, William M.; Scott, Sophia (2023-04-20)
Persistent inflation and slower job growth may further challenge vulnerable groups, particularly LMI families and out-of-school young Black and Latino adults.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
Many Small Businesses in the Services Sector Are Unlikely to Reopen
Dam, David; Heise, Sebastian; Melcangi, Davide; Schirmer, Will (2021-05-05)
The services sector was hit hard during the COVID-19 pandemic. Small businesses were particularly affected, and many of them were forced to close. We examine the state of these firms using micro data from Homebase (HB), a scheduling and time tracking tool that is used by around 100,000 businesses, mostly small firms, in the leisure and hospitality and retail industries. The data reveal that 35 percent of businesses that were active prior to the pandemic are still closed and that most have been inactive for twenty weeks or longer. We estimate that each additional week of being closed reduces ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210505

Briefing
Measuring Labor Market Power in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector
Yeh, Chen (2022-01)
Policymakers have recently considered several policies to mitigate a perceived increase in employers' market power. However, the lack of direct evidence on labor market power has complicated the policy debate. In this article, we show that the degree of employers' market power is substantial and widespread in the U.S. manufacturing sector. A worker in the average manufacturing plant receives only 65 cents on each dollar generated in the margin. Furthermore, we propose a novel aggregate measure for labor market power. We find that employers' market power decreased between the late 1970s and ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 01

Journal Article
Population Boom: Where are Oklahoma’s newest residents living and working?
Wilkerson, Chad R.; Farha, Chase (2024-03-04)
The previous edition of the Oklahoma Economist discovered those moving in came mostly from the Western U.S., and the state experienced “brain gain” after losing college graduates to other states for many years. This edition explores where in Oklahoma these new residents moved to and where other residents have moved within the state, as well as the demographics and employment status of those moving in.
Oklahoma Economist , Volume 2024 , Issue 2

Journal Article
Classifying Worker Types in the U.S. Labor Market
Gregory, Victoria; Menzio, Guido; Wiczer, David (2021-05-18)
Why some worker types have difficulty finding stable jobs can’t easily be explained by demographic characteristics.
Economic Synopses , Issue 10 , Pages 1-2

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