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Journal Article
This time may not be that different: labor markets, the Great Recession and the (not so great) recovery

The last three U.S. recessions have been followed by ?jobless recoveries.? The lack of robust job growth once GDP starts to pick up has a lot people asking if labor markets have changed in some fundamental way. I look at employment and unemployment growth in every recession since the 1950s and find that the current levels of these indicators can be explained by the severity of the Great Recession and the slow growth of GDP in the recovery.
Economic Commentary , Issue Sept

Conference Paper
Indexation and contract length in unionized U.S. manufacturing

Proceedings

Journal Article
Un-COLA?

FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
What Can We Learn from Idiosyncratic Wage Changes?

I document six facts about wage changes. First, most pay revisions occur at yearly frequency, but a small proportion occur at idiosyncratic times. Second, idiosyncratic pay changes are larger and more dispersed than year-end pay changes and resemble more pay changes occurring at job-to-job transitions. Third, idiosyncratic pay changes are more common for workers with less experience and, forth, in firms higher on the job-ladder. Fifth, industries in which the incidence of idiosyncratic raises have risen have experienced greater declines in labor share. Sixth, industries in which more firms ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-055

Working Paper
Fixed term employment contracts in an equilibrium search model

Fixed term employment contracts have been introduced in number of European countries as a way to provide flexibility to economies with high employment protection levels. We introduce these contracts into the equilibrium search model in Alvarez and Veracierto (1999), a version of the Lucas and Prescott island model, adapted to have undirected search and variable labor force participation. We model a contract of length J as a tax on separations of workers with tenure higher than J. We show a version of the welfare theorems, and characterize the efficient allocations. This requires solving a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-05-14

Working Paper
What are the short-run effects of increasing labor market flexibility?

This paper evaluates the short-run effects of introducing labor market flexibility to an economy characterized by large firing taxes. Different reforms are considered: 1) eliminating all firing taxes, 2) introducing flexible new contracts while retaining the firing taxes on workers employed previous to the reform, and 3) introducing temporary contracts. The paper finds that eliminating all firing taxes increases the unemployment rate much more in the short run than in the long run, that introducing new flexible contracts has similar effects as eliminating all firing taxes, and that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-00-29

Journal Article
Union COLA's on the decline

Economic Review , Volume 71 , Issue Jun , Pages 10-25

Working Paper
When should labor contracts be nominal?

We propose a theory to explain the choice between nominal and indexed labor contracts. We find that contracts should be indexed if prices are difficult to forecast and nominal otherwise. Our analysis is based on a principal-agent model developed by Jovanovic and Ueda (1997) in which renegotiation can take place once the nominal value of the agent's output is observed. Their model assumes that agents use pure strategy, with the strong result that only nominal contracts can be written without being renegotiated. But, in reality, we do observe indexed contracts. We resolve this weakness of their ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 01-07

Journal Article
Labor pains

Fedgazette , Volume 13 , Issue May , Pages 2-5, 7-8

Journal Article
Do unions work?

Fedgazette , Volume 13 , Issue May , Pages 6

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