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Newsletter
A Dollar’s Worth: Inflation Is Real
Bennett, Jeannette N. (2021-12)
Understanding the reality of inflation can help consumers make decisions in personal finance. Learn more about inflation, how it’s measured, and how the inflation rate is calculated in the December 2021 issue of Page One Economics: Focus on Finance.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Interest rate volatility contributed to higher mortgage rates in 2022
Frame, W. Scott; McCormick, Matthew (2023-04-04)
The Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy in 2022, responding to high and persistent inflation. The resulting borrowing cost increase for households and firms was generally anticipated. However, fixed-rate mortgage interest rates were especially sensitive to the policy regime change.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Mitra, Indrajit; Xu, Yu (2020-11-09)
We present a theory in which limited risk sharing of idiosyncratic labor income risk plays a key role in determining the dynamics of interest rates. Our production-based model relates the cross-sectional distribution of labor income risk to observable aggregate labor market variables. Our model makes two key predictions. First, it predicts positive risk premia for long-term bonds while simultaneously matching key macroeconomic moments. Second, it predicts a negative correlation between current labor market conditions (as measured by labor market tightness or the job-finding rate) and future ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-20

Speech
Interview with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
Bullard, James B. (2022-07-14)
Speech

Newsletter
Why Do Bond Prices and Interest Rates Move in Opposite Directions?
Kaiman, Mike (2023-11)
Bonds. Just bonds. This November 2023 issue of Page One Economics helps learners navigate the world of purchasing, holding, and selling bonds. In addition to the basics, students will learn that the bond market, where existing bonds are bought and sold, creates a situation where bond prices and interest rates move in opposite directions.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Journal Article
Higher interest rates transform housing market, Texas real estate workforce
Dodini, Samuel; Kenney, Jeanna; Haq, Kamran; Dhillon, Isabel (2026-01-07)
A pandemic-era period of relatively low interest rates and rising house prices drew a record number of new real estate agents to the field. Home prices have since remained high, but elevated interest rates and slowing sales have made the industry less attractive.
Southwest Economy

Report
The execution of monetary policy: a tale of two central banks
Bartolini, Leonardo; Prati, Alessandro (2003)
The Eurosystem and the U.S. Federal Reserve System follow quite different approaches to the execution of monetary policy. The former institution adopts a "hands-off" approach that largely delegates to depository institutions the task of stabilizing their own liquidity at high frequency. The latter institution follows a much more "hands-on" approach involving daily intervention to fine-tune the liquidity of the banking system. We review the implications of these contrasting approaches, focusing on their impact on the high-frequency behavior of very short-term interest rates. We also examine ...
Staff Reports , Paper 165

Journal Article
Aging, Deflation, and Secular Stagnation
Braun, R. Anton (2022-10-06)
Prior to the COVID pandemic, industrialized countries experienced a sustained episode of low inflation, low real interest rates, and low per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As the logistical and other disruptions created by the COVID pandemic fade, will industrialized economies once again face downward pressure on prices, real interest rates, and output growth? We present evidence that the aging of the population was depressing the inflation rate, as well as real interest rates and GDP growth, prior to the COVID pandemic. Aging is ongoing in industrialized countries, and it will ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 13

Journal Article
Why Are Overall Profits Outpacing Financing Costs?
Bobrov, Anton E.; Davis, Carter; Sollaci, Alexandre; Traina, James (2024-06-17)
Since the 1980s, decreasing interest rates have reduced the cost of financing for publicly traded corporations, which in turn has lowered their cost of capital by more than a third. Data show that their profits have likewise declined. At the same time, however, economy-wide corporate profits have increased substantially. Combining these data indicates that the increase in profits has instead gone to privately held companies. This implies that private companies have either increased their market power or their risk.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 15

Speech
Interview with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
Bullard, James B. (2023-04-18)
Speech

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