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Are Continued Jobless Claims a Useful Gauge of Labor Market Conditions?
Economists have used initial claims for jobless benefits to gauge U.S. labor market conditions. Can continued claims also be used as a predictor of employment growth?
Discussion Paper
Translating Weekly Jobless Claims into Monthly Net Job Losses
News headlines highlighting the loss of at least 30 million jobs (so far) underscore the massive shock that has hit the U.S. economy and the dislocation, hardship, and stress it has caused for so many American workers. But how accurately does this number actually capture the number of net job losses? In this post, we look at some of the statistical anomalies and quirks in the weekly claims series and offer a guide to interpreting these numbers. What we find is that the relationship between jobless claims and payroll employment for the month can vary substantially, depending on the nature, ...