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Discussion Paper
Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Hyman, Benjamin (2025-03-05)
After a period of particularly high inflation following the pandemic recession, inflationary pressures have been moderating the past few years. Indeed, the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index has come down from a peak of 9.1 percent in the summer of 2022 to 3 percent at the beginning of 2025. The New York Fed asked regional businesses about their own cost and price increases in February, as well as their expectations for future inflation. Service firms reported that business cost and selling price increases continued to moderate through 2024, while manufacturing firms ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250305

Working Paper
How Optimal Was U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound?
Bundick, Brent; Smith, Andrew Lee; Hotz, Logan (2023-12-01)
The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates can generate substantial downward pressure on longer-term inflation expectations. We use data on interest rate options and inflation compensation to estimate how the probability that the zero lower bound will bind in the future has weighed on inflation expectations in the United States. Over the 2008–19 period, we estimate that the zero lower bound imparted only a small drag on longer-term inflation expectations of around 10 basis points. We argue that the Federal Reserve's forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases largely offset the ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 23-14

Discussion Paper
What to Make of Market Measures of Inflation Expectations?
Schaumburg, Ernst; Lucca, David O. (2011-08-15)
Central banks and investors around the world closely monitor developments in financial markets to gauge expectations of future interest rates and inflation. In this post, we argue that two of the most commonly used market-based inflation expectations measures—TIPS breakevens and inflation swaps—are noisy. Although movements in both measures provide policymakers with valuable information, readings should always be interpreted with care.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110815

Working Paper
Inflation Since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges
Hajdini, Ina; Shapiro, Adam Hale; Smith, Andrew Lee; Villar Vallenas, Daniel (2025-08-29)
This paper reviews the drivers of the post-pandemic U.S. inflation surge and subsequent decline, including the behavior and role of inflation expectations. The sharp rise in inflation reflected severe imbalances between supply and demand stemming from the shocks of the pandemic and the policy response. Measures of short-term inflation expectations increased alongside realized inflation, especially those of households and firms, which may have contributed to inflation’s persistence through price- and wage-setting behavior. However, measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2025-16

Speech
Prepare for the Unexpected
Williams, John C. (2025-10-03)
Remarks at the Klaas Knot Farewell Symposium, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Speech

Working Paper
Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation
Mitchell, James; Shiroff, Taylor; Braitsch, Hana (2024-11-13)
This paper shows how both the characteristics and the accuracy of the point and density forecasts from a well-known panel data survey of households' inflationary expectations – the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations – depend on the tenure of survey respondents. Households' point and density forecasts of inflation become significantly more accurate with repeated practice of completing the survey. These learning gains are best identified when tenure-based combination forecasts are constructed. Tenured households on average produce lower point forecasts of inflation, perceive ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-25

Report
Monetary policy frameworks and the effective lower bound on interest rates
Mertens, Thomas M.; Williams, John C. (2019-01-01)
This paper applies a standard New Keynesian model to analyze the effects of monetary policy in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Under a standard inflation-targeting approach, inflation expectations will become anchored at a level below the inflation target, which in turn exacerbates the deleterious effects of the lower bound on the economy. Two key themes emerge from our analysis. First, the central bank can mitigate this problem of a downward bias in inflation expectations by following an average-inflation targeting framework that aims for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 877

Report
How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence From the Pandemic Era in Europe
Acharya, Viral V.; Crosignani, Matteo; Eisert, Tim; Eufinger, Christian (2025-08-01)
We document how the interaction of supply chain pressures, elevated household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power contributed to the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply chain disruptions raised inflation, particularly in manufacturing, through a cost-push channel, while also elevating inflation expectations. In turn, higher inflation expectations appear to have lowered the price elasticity of consumer demand and strengthened firms’ pricing power, enabling even firms in service sectors that were initially unaffected by supply ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1164

Journal Article
Wage Growth When Inflation Is High
Jordà, Òscar; Liu, Celeste; Nechio, Fernanda; Rivera-Reyes, Fabián (2022-09-06)
In a tight labor market, workers are able to respond to price increases by bargaining for higher wages. Analyzing conditions since the pandemic shows that, in the recent environment of elevated inflation and low unemployment, wages have become much more sensitive to expected price inflation than in the past. The impact of inflation expectations on wages also appears to have become longer lasting.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 25 , Pages 6

Discussion Paper
Inflation Expectations of Fifth District Firms
Edwards, Zach; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath; Schwartzman, Felipe (2025-04-25)
In early 2021, inflation in the U.S. began to climb, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaking at 9 percent on a year-over-year basis in 2022. Since then, inflation has come down considerably. In July 2021, we started to monitor the inflation expectations of respondents to our Fifth District business surveys. We saw expectations rise along with inflation and then start to fall.In the most recent April survey, we find that most firms are following inflation. Firms' expectations for CPI growth in the next year and the next five years have increased again to levels similar to October 2023. ...
Regional Matters

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