Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
Inflation Thresholds and Inattention
Tang, Jenny; Bracha, Anat (2019-09-01)
Inflation expectations are key to economic activity, and in the current economic climate of a heated labor market, they are central to the policy debate. At the same time, a growing literature on inattention suggests that individuals, and therefore individual behavior, may not be sensitive to changes in inflation when it is low. This paper explores evidence of such inattention by constructing three different measures based on the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers 1-year ahead inflation expectations. Exploring inflation thresholds of 2, 3, and 4 percent, our findings are ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-14

Working Paper
The Role of Inflation Perceptions in Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Euro Area
Bussière, Matthieu; Gilbert, Johanna; Grishchenko, Olesya V. (2026-06-03)
Using data on euro-area household inflation forecasts from the European Commission Consumer Survey, we show that households' perceptions of recent price changes play a key role in the formation of their inflation expectations. Such a relationship remains robust when we account for specific inflation components, household characteristics, and macroeconomic conditions, even though the perceptions-expectations relationship is heterogeneous across countries. These results highlight the importance of perceptions about inflation for the conduct of monetary policy.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2026-038

Journal Article
Wage Growth When Inflation Is High
Jordà, Òscar; Liu, Celeste; Nechio, Fernanda; Rivera-Reyes, Fabián (2022-09-06)
In a tight labor market, workers are able to respond to price increases by bargaining for higher wages. Analyzing conditions since the pandemic shows that, in the recent environment of elevated inflation and low unemployment, wages have become much more sensitive to expected price inflation than in the past. The impact of inflation expectations on wages also appears to have become longer lasting.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 25 , Pages 6

Speech
Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy
Musalem, Alberto G. (2025-05-20)
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem shared his views on the economic outlook and implications for monetary policy at an Economic Club of Minnesota event in Minneapolis. He gave a speech, “Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy,” and participated in a moderated Q&A.
Speech

Working Paper
Maintaining the Anchor: An Evaluation of Inflation Targeting in the Face of COVID-19
Bundick, Brent; Van der Meer, Luca; Smith, Andrew Lee (2026-06-04)
This paper provides evidence that inflation targeting delivered anchored inflation expectations during the post-2020 inflation surge. Using a macroeconomic model, we illustrate how long-term nominal interest rates respond to an unexpected burst of inflation under both anchored and unanchored inflation expectations. We then evaluate these predictions using high-frequency financial market data from nine advanced economies and illustrate three main findings. First, inflation expectations embedded in asset prices were just as well, or in some countries better anchored, after the pandemic. Second, ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 24-15

Working Paper
Slow Learning
Christiano, Lawrence J.; Eichenbaum, Martin S.; Johannsen, Benjamin K. (2026-06-04)
This paper provides an analytic characterization of the speed of convergence under learning to a rational expectations equilibrium (REE) for a large class of multivariate models. We show that learning is slower when people's beliefs about model outcomes are more self-fulfilling. The paper also investigates which features of a model economy make beliefs more self-fulfilling, using variants of the simple new-Keynesian model and a medium-scale DSGE model. For empirically plausible specifications of these models, convergence of a learning equilibrium to the REE is so slow that analysis based on ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2026-039

Discussion Paper
Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Hyman, Benjamin (2025-03-05)
After a period of particularly high inflation following the pandemic recession, inflationary pressures have been moderating the past few years. Indeed, the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index has come down from a peak of 9.1 percent in the summer of 2022 to 3 percent at the beginning of 2025. The New York Fed asked regional businesses about their own cost and price increases in February, as well as their expectations for future inflation. Service firms reported that business cost and selling price increases continued to moderate through 2024, while manufacturing firms ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250305

How Well Are Inflation Expectations Anchored? Two Datasets Compared
McCracken, Michael W.; Cole, Anna (2025-09-25)
What anchors inflation expectations? An analysis breaks down how anticipated drift from the Fed’s 2% target and divergence among forecasts each contribute.
On the Economy

Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy
Dudley, William (2016-07-31)
Remarks at Bank Indonesia–Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia.
Speech

Journal Article
Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?
Glick, Reuven; Kouchekinia, Noah; Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2021-07-12)
Household surveys indicate that consumers expect higher inflation this year than in recent years, as the U.S. economy rebounds from the deep recession. This has coincided with a surge in commodity prices, as strong demand for goods like gas, food, and construction materials is catching producers with low supplies. Evidence suggests that households respond to commodity price increases by raising their expectations of future inflation. However, since surges in commodity prices are transitory, their effects on inflation expectations—particularly long-term expectations—are modest and ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 19 , Pages 06

show more (1)

show more (43)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords