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Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Hur, Sewon; Mau, Ron; Mertens, Karel; Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2024-10-01)
The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

Newsletter
A Dollar’s Worth: Inflation Is Real
Bennett, Jeannette N. (2021-12)
Understanding the reality of inflation can help consumers make decisions in personal finance. Learn more about inflation, how it’s measured, and how the inflation rate is calculated in the December 2021 issue of Page One Economics: Focus on Finance.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Speech
Policy Nimbleness Through Forward Guidance
Daly, Mary C. (2022-06-24)
Presentation at Shadow Open Market Committee Conference, Chapman University, Orange, CA, June 24, 2022, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Journal Article
Slower GDP Growth and Falling Inflation in U.S. Economic Outlook for 2024
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2023-11-28)
The U.S. macroeconomic outlook calls for real GDP growth to slow sharply but remain positive in 2024 and for inflation pressures to continue easing.
The Regional Economist

Speech
Remarks on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Musalem, Alberto G. (2025-03-03)
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem shared his views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the 41st annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. He gave a speech, “Remarks on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” and participated in a moderated Q&A.
Speech

Working Paper
Navigating Constraints: The Evolution of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, 1935-59
Carlson, Mark A.; Wheelock, David C. (2014-06-09)
The 1950s are often pointed to as a decade in which the Federal Reserve operated a particularly successful monetary policy. The present paper examines the evolution of Federal Reserve monetary policy from the mid-1930s through the 1950s in an effort to understand better the apparent success of policy in the 1950s. Whereas others have debated whether the Fed had a sophisticated understanding of how to implement policy, our focus is on how the constraints on the Fed changed over time. Roosevelt Administration gold policies and New Deal legislation limited the Fed's ability to conduct an ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-44

Speech
Interview with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
Bullard, James B. (2022-07-14)
Speech

Speech
Rules of Three
Williams, John C. (2024-01-10)
Remarks at Bronx EDC and BICNY’s 2024 Regional Economic Outlook, White Plains, New York.
Speech

Speech
Views on Current Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy
Collins, Susan M. (2025-09-30)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President & CEO Susan M. Collins shared brief remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations' C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics. Following the brief remarks, President Collins discussed economic conditions and monetary policy with CNBC Technology and Global Markets Correspondent Seema Mody.
Speech

Journal Article
Less-tight labor market helps Texas grow faster than U.S. during pandemic
Kumar, Anil (2022)
Data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicate that Texas and the U.S. have more openings than people to fill to them. However, the vacancy–unemployment ratio suggests that the state’s labor markets are less tight than the nation’s. Amid widespread reports of worker shortages, Texas' not-so-constricted labor markets have helped the state outpace the nation in job growth.
Southwest Economy , Issue Fourth Quarter

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