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Journal Article
Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World
Daly, Mary C. (2023-03-09)
Restoring price stability is a key part of the Fed’s mandate, and it is what the American people expect. Achieving it will take time and a broad view of economic conditions. Policymakers have to respond to an economy that is evolving in real time and prepare for what the economy will look like in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies at Princeton University on March 4.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 08 , Pages 8

Journal Article
How Much Has the Cooling Economy Reduced Inflation?
Shapiro, Adam Hale; Barnichon, Régis (2024-11-18)
Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to unemployed workers and of vacancies to effective job seekers—are particularly informative in determining excess demand’s impact on recent inflation. The measures suggest that declines in excess demand pushed inflation down almost three-quarters of a percentage point over the past two years. However, elevated demand continued to contribute 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point to inflation as of ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 30 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Treasury Debt and Inflation Tax
Chiang, Yu-Ting; Karger, Ezra; LaBelle, Jesse (2024-10-08)
We calculate the implicit inflation tax borne by households due to their holdings of U.S. Treasury debt. Nominal assets lose value due to unexpected inflation. We calculate unexpected changes in current and future inflation and document households’ holdings of Treasury debt across the wealth distribution, accounting for direct and indirect holdings through financial intermediaries. Combining these two pieces of information, we calculate the implied inflation tax across household wealth groups over the past four decades.
Review , Volume 106 , Issue 9 , Pages 1-11

Working Paper
Monetary Policy and the Great COVID-19 Price Level Shock
Andolfatto, David; Martin, Fernando M. (2025-07-28)
We employ a small-scale dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the surge in inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic. A calibrated version of the model is used to assess U.S. monetary and fiscal policy over the 2020–2024 period and to estimate the economic and welfare consequences of alternative policy scenarios. The analysis suggests that the large fiscal transfers of 2020–2021 were broadly welfare-improving, albeit larger than necessary. Given the fiscal stance in place, optimal monetary policy would not have generated a materially different price level dynamic. While monetary ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-004

Working Paper
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-11-19)
Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, but only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2116

Journal Article
Excess Savings and Consumer Behavior: Excess Compared to What?
DeLuca, Martin; Pinheiro, Roberto (2023-11-20)
How much accumulated savings do households hold, and what do these savings imply about future consumption? Economists typically consider excess savings when gauging the level of savings that households may use to maintain real consumption as costs rise. Economists have estimated strikingly different levels of currently held excess savings. We highlight the differences between measures of counterfactual savings—that is, the amount of savings households would be expected to hold barring unusual events—and their relevance in computing post pandemic excess savings. Furthermore, we show that, ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2023 , Issue 19 , Pages 10

Newsletter
Inflation Expectations, the Phillips Curve, and the Fed’s Dual Mandate
Ihrig, Jane E.; Peneva, Ekaterina V.; Wolla, Scott A. (2021-07-15)
This Summer 2021 issue of Page One Economics describes how to think about stable prices, how inflation has evolved in recent years, how the relationship between inflation and employment is changing, and what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has recently stated about its strategy to meet its price stability goal.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Journal Article
Risk Management in Monetary Policymaking: The 1994-95 FOMC Tightening Episode
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2025-04-24)
The 1994-95 tightening episode was one of the most notable in the FOMC’s history because the FOMC raised the policy rate by 300 basis points in a year, despite headline and core CPI inflation trending lower prior to the beginning of tighter policy in February 1994. Although Chair Alan Greenspan publicly signaled the FOMC’s desire to normalize its policy rate prior to February 1994, the Federal Reserve’s actions nonetheless caught the Treasury market by surprise, triggering a sharp decline in long-term bond prices. Chair Greenspan and the FOMC were regularly surprised that inflation was ...
Review , Volume 107 , Issue 6 , Pages 1-16

Discussion Paper
High Unemployment and Disinflation in the Euro Area Periphery Countries
Klitgaard, Thomas; Peck, Richard (2014-07-14)
Economists often model inflation as dependent on inflation expectations and the level of economic slack, with changes in expectations or slack leading to changes in the inflation rate. The global slowdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis caused the greatest divergence in unemployment rates among euro area member countries since the monetary union was founded in 1999. The pronounced differences in economic performances of euro area countries since 2008 should have led to significant differences in price behavior. That turned out to be the case, with a strong correlation evident between ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140714a

Journal Article
President's Message: A Forecasting Personality Test
Barkin, Tom (2024-04)
Contrary to most forecasts, including my own, the economy finished 2023 strong. Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, came down all the way to 2.6 percent. At the same time, despite higher interest rates, global conflicts, and banking turmoil, economic growth was healthy and unemployment was near historic lows.But early 2024 data has been a little less easy to read, with inflation elevated and consumer spending coming in softer, while the labor market has remained quite strong. So it's easy to see why people might differ on the path forward for the ...
Econ Focus , Volume 24 , Issue 1Q/2Q , Pages 1

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