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Discussion Paper
Black and White Differences in the Labor Market Recovery from COVID-19
Dam, David; Gaur, Meghana; Karahan, Fatih; Pilossoph, Laura; Schirmer, Will (2021-02-09)
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the various measures put in place to contain it caused a rapid deterioration in labor market conditions for many workers and plunged the nation into recession. The unemployment rate increased dramatically during the COVID recession, rising from 3.5 percent in February to 14.8 percent in April, accompanied by an almost three percentage point decline in labor force participation. While the subsequent labor market recovery in the aggregate has exceeded even some of the most optimistic scenarios put forth soon after this dramatic rise, the recovery has been ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210209c

Working Paper
Earnings Dynamics and Its Intergenerational Transmission: Evidence from Norway
Ozkan, Serdar; Salgado, Sergio; Halvorsen, Elin (2021-12-16)
Using administrative data from Norway, we first present stylized facts on labor earnings dynamics between 1993 and 2017 and its heterogeneity across narrow population groups. We then investigate the parents’ role in children’s income dynamics—the intergenerational transmission of income dynamics. We find that children of high-income, high-wealth fathers enjoy steeper income growth over the life cycle and face more volatile but more positively skewed income changes, suggesting that they are more likely to pursue high-return, high-risk careers. Children of poorer fathers also face more ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-015

Speech
Optimal Macroeconomic Policies in a Heterogeneous World
Bullard, James B.; DiCecio, Riccardo; Singh, Aarti; Suda, Jacek (2023-06-23)
Speech

Working Paper
The Piketty Transition
Carroll, Daniel R.; Young, Eric R. (2014-12-03)
We study the effects on inequality of a "Piketty transition" to zero growth. In a model with a worker-capitalist dichotomy, we show first that the relationship between inequality (measured as a ratio of incomes for the two types) and growth is complicated; zero growth can raise or lower inequality, depending on parameters. Extending our model to include idiosyncratic wage risk we show that growth has quantitatively negligible effects on inequality, and the effect is negative. Finally, following Piketty?s thought experiment, we study how the transition might occur without declining returns; ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1432

Working Paper
The Transmission of Financial Shocks and Leverage of Financial Institutions: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Framework
Waggoner, Daniel F.; Hubrich, Kirstin (2022-06-02)
We conduct a novel empirical analysis of the role of leverage of financial institutions for the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy. For that purpose, we develop an endogenous regime-switching structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probabilities that depend on the state of the economy. We propose new identification techniques for regime switching models.Recently developed theoretical models emphasize the role of bank balance sheets for the build-up of financial instabilities and the amplification of financial shocks. We build a market-based ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2022-5

Discussion Paper
Some Workers Have Been Hit Much Harder than Others by the Pandemic
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2021-02-09)
As the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in the United States, in just two months—between February and April 2020—the nation saw well over 20 million workers lose their jobs, an unprecedented 15 percent decline. Since then, substantial progress has been made, but employment still remains 5 percent below its pre-pandemic level. However, not all workers have been affected equally. This post is the first in a three-part series exploring disparities in labor market outcomes during the pandemic—and represents an extension of ongoing research into heterogeneities and inequalities in people’s ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210209a

Working Paper
Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia
D'Amico, Stefania; Orphanides, Athanasios (2014-01-11)
This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model-based ex-post measures of macroeconomic risk. Inflation uncertainty is an important driver of bond premia, but the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-24

Working Paper
Wealth Inequality and Return Heterogeneity During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Kartashova, Katya; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-11-10)
Wealth inequality in the U.S., measured by the top 1% wealth share, experienced dramatic changes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic theory suggests that the key to understanding wealth inequality is heterogeneity in the return to net worth across households. To understand the dynamics of wealth inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic, we develop a novel methodology that allows us to estimate the returns to net worth for different groups of households at relatively high frequency. We show that portfolio heterogeneity and asset price movements are the main determinants of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2114

Report
Micro Responses to Macro Shocks
Sancibrián, Víctor; Almuzara, Martín (2024-03-01)
We study panel data regression models when the shocks of interest are aggregate and possibly small relative to idiosyncratic noise. This speaks to a large empirical literature that targets impulse responses via panel local projections. We show how to interpret the estimated coefficients when units have heterogeneous responses and how to obtain valid standard errors and confidence intervals. A simple recipe leads to robust inference: including lags as controls and then clustering at the time level. This strategy is valid under general error dynamics and uniformly over the degree of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1090

Working Paper
Credit Enforcement Cycles
Drozd, Lukasz A.; Serrano-Padial, Ricardo (2017-08-21)
Empirical evidence suggests that widespread financial distress, by disrupting enforcement of credit contracts, can be self-propagatory and adversely affect the supply of credit. We propose a unifying theory that models the interplay between enforcement, borrower default decisions, and the provision of credit. The central tenets of our framework are the presence of capacity constrained enforcement and borrower heterogeneity. We show that, despite heterogeneity, borrowers tend to coordinate their default choices, leading to fragility and to credit rationing. Our model provides a rationale for ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-27

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