Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Discussion Paper
Optimists and Pessimists in the Housing Market
Palmer, Christopher; Liu, Haoyang (2019-10-16)
Given momentum in house prices over business cycles, research on consumer beliefs since the financial crisis has honed in on the potential importance of extrapolative beliefs?myopically assuming trends in asset prices will continue. Extrapolation is frequently cited as a central reason for excessively optimistic expectations about future asset prices, featuring prominently, for example, in the irrational exuberance narrative of Shiller. Other influential work since the Great Recession has emphasized the outsized role that extrapolative optimists can have in bubble formation. In this post, we ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191016

Working Paper
Sample Selection Models Without Exclusion Restrictions: Parameter Heterogeneity and Partial Identification
Honore, Bo E.; Hu, Luojia (2021-07)
This paper studies semiparametric versions of the classical sample selection model (Heckman (1976, 1979)) without exclusion restrictions. We extend the analysis in Honoré and Hu (2020) by allowing for parameter heterogeneity and derive implications of this model. We also consider models that allow for heteroskedasticity and briefly discuss other extensions. The key ideas are illustrated in a simple wage regression for females. We find that the derived implications of a semiparametric version of Heckman's classical sample selection model are consistent with the data for women with no college ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2022-33

Report
Consumption heterogeneity, employment dynamics, and macroeconomic co-movement
Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce (2009)
Real-business-cycle models necessarily rely on total factor productivity shocks to explain the observed co-movement between consumption, investment, and hours. However, an emerging body of evidence identifies "investment shocks" as important drivers of business cycles. This paper shows that a neoclassical model consistent with observed heterogeneity in labor supply and consumption across employed and nonemployed can generate co-movement in response to fluctuations in the marginal efficiency of investment. Estimation reveals that these shocks explain the bulk of business-cycle variance in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 399

Working Paper
Financial Contracting with Enforcement Externalities
Drozd, Lukasz A.; Serrano-Padial, Ricardo (2018-10-18)
We study the negative feedback loop between the aggregate default rate and the efficacy of enforcement in a model of debt-financed entrepreneurial activity. The novel feature of our model is that enforcement capacity is accumulated ex ante and thus subject to depletion ex post. We characterize the effect of shocks that deplete enforcement resources on the aggregate default rate and credit supply. In the model default decisions by entrepreneurs are strategic complements, leading to multiple equilibria. We propose a global game selection to overcome equilibrium indeterminacy and show how shocks ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-21

Working Paper
The Piketty Transition
Carroll, Daniel R.; Young, Eric R. (2014-12-03)
We study the effects on inequality of a "Piketty transition" to zero growth. In a model with a worker-capitalist dichotomy, we show first that the relationship between inequality (measured as a ratio of incomes for the two types) and growth is complicated; zero growth can raise or lower inequality, depending on parameters. Extending our model to include idiosyncratic wage risk we show that growth has quantitatively negligible effects on inequality, and the effect is negative. Finally, following Piketty?s thought experiment, we study how the transition might occur without declining returns; ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1432

Working Paper
Fleeting Forbearance in a World of Persistent Financial Distress
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Sanchez, Juan M.; Athreya, Kartik B. (2026-09-04)
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Mustre-del-Río, Sánchez, Athreya. In the US, households often delay payments on unsecured debt for extended periods. These delinquencies are costly, making them a useful indicator of financial distress. Mortgage forbearance, another form of payment delay, saw swift take-up early in the COVID-19 pandemic, but was fleeting. Most borrowers exited quickly despite generous terms. This paper reconciles these seemingly contradictory payment postponement patterns using a life-cycle model of mortgages and unsecured debt. Combining survey evidence with credit history data, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-019

Report
Asset Pricing with Cohort-Based Trading in MBS Markets
Song, Zhaogang; Fusari, Nicola; Liu, Haoyang; Li, Wei (2020-07-01)
Agency MBSs with diverse characteristics are traded in parallel through individualized specified pool (SP) contracts and standardized to-be-announced (TBA) contracts. This parallel trading environment generates distinctive effects on MBS pricing and trading: (1) Although cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) issues are present in TBA trading and absent from SP trading by design, MBS heterogeneity associated with CTD discounts affects SP returns positively, with the effect stronger for lower-value SPs; (2) High selling pressure amplifies the effects of MBS heterogeneity on SP returns; (3) Greater MBS ...
Staff Reports , Paper 931

Working Paper
Heterogeneity in Decentralized Asset Markets
Hugonnier, Julien; Lester, Benjamin; Weill, Pierre-Olivier (2019-11-04)
We study a search and bargaining model of asset markets in which investors? heterogeneous valuations for the asset are drawn from an arbitrary distribution. We present a solution technique that makes the model fully tractable, and allows us to provide a complete characterization of the unique equilibrium, in closed form, both in and out of steady state. Using this characterization, we derive several novel implications that highlight the importance of heterogeneity. In particular, we show how some investors endogenously emerge as intermediaries, even though they have no advantage in contacting ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-44

Working Paper
A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W. (2018-09-28)
This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank?s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We present individual uncertainty measures and introduce individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. The data indicate substantial heterogeneity and persistence in respondents? uncertainty and disagreement, with uncertainty associated with prominent respondent effects and disagreement associated with prominent time effects. We also examine the co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement and find an ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1813

Discussion Paper
Tracking the K‑Shaped Economy: Who’s Driving Spending?
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pham, Thu; Pierce, Beckett; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2026-05-01)
Aggregate real consumer spending has risen solidly since 2023. However, it is less clear how widely shared this improvement has been across all segments of society. This is important because systematic heterogeneity may mask the dependence of aggregate growth on a relatively small group of households and thus conceal macroeconomic risks. In this post, we use consumer spending data recently added to the Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs) and find that retail spending growth has been driven by high-income households—those earning more than $125,000 per year. In the popular press, the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20260501a

show more (73)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords