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Speech
An Economic Outlook - Main Line Chamber of Commerce
Harker, Patrick T. (2017-01-12)
Inflation, GDP growth, and the labor market are ?displaying considerable strength? and indicate a robust American economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick T. Harker said today in remarks to the Main Line Chamber of Commerce.
Speech , Paper 127

Working Paper
The Well-Being of Nations: Estimating Welfare from International Migration
Lin, Jeffrey; Lee, Seung Jung; Lee, Sanghoon (2020-01-14)
The limitations of GDP as a measure of welfare are well known. We propose a new method of estimating the well-being of nations. Using gross bilateral international migration flows and a discrete choice model in which everyone in the world chooses a country in which to live, we estimate each country?s overall quality of life. Our estimates, by relying on revealed preference, complement previous estimates of economic well-being that consider only income or a small number of factors, or rely on structural assumptions about how these factors contribute to wellbeing.
Working Papers , Paper 19-33

Journal Article
Waiting for a Pickup: GDP and the Sharing Economy
Redmond, Michael (2017-04-19)
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
The Fog of Numbers
Sekhposyan, Tatevik; Jordà, Òscar; Merrill, Colton; Kouchekinia, Noah (2020-07-15)
In times of economic turbulence, revisions to GDP data can be sizable, which makes conducting economic policy in real time during a crisis more difficult. A simple model based on Okun’s law can help refine the advance data release of real GDP growth to provide an improved reading of economic activity in real time. Applying this to data from the Great Recession explains some of the massive GDP revisions at that time. This could provide a guide for possible revisions to GDP releases during the current coronavirus crisis.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 20 , Pages 5

Journal Article
To Improve the Accuracy of GDP Growth Forecasts, Add Financial Market Conditions
Cook, Thomas R.; Doh, Taeyoung (2021-06-02)
More timely data on current macroeconomic conditions can reduce uncertainty about forecasts, helping policymakers mitigate the risk of extreme economic outcomes. We find that incorporating financial market conditions along with current macroeconomic conditions improves the forecast accuracy of future GDP growth. Forecasts based only on current macroeconomic conditions eventually converge to those incorporating financial market conditions, lending further support to this approach.
Economic Bulletin , Issue June 2, 2021 , Pages 5

For Poor Countries, Gains in Education Are Not Matched in Income
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Peake, Makenzie (2020-09-15)
Poor countries are narrowing the education gap with rich countries, but not the gap in GDP per capita.
On the Economy

How to Achieve a V-Shaped Recovery amid the COVID-19 Pandemic
Wen, Yi; Reinbold, Brian (2020-05-29)
Contrasting the Great Depression and Great Recession recoveries helps show how GDP levels and growth rates can respond to different levels of policy responses.
On the Economy

Report
Aggregate Output Measurements: A Common Trend Approach
Sentana, Enrique; Fiorentini, Gabriele; Almuzara, Martín (2021-03-01)
We analyze a model for N different measurements of a persistent latent time series when measurement errors are mean-reverting, which implies a common trend among measurements. We study the consequences of overdifferencing, finding potentially large biases in maximum likelihood estimators of the dynamics parameters and reductions in the precision of smoothed estimates of the latent variable, especially for multiperiod objects such as quinquennial growth rates. We also develop an R2 measure of common trend observability that determines the severity of misspecification. Finally, we apply our ...
Staff Reports , Paper 962

Newsletter
The Effect of Weather on First-Quarter GDP
Gourio, Francois (2015)
In a pattern similar to that of the previous year, the U.S. economy appeared to slow down this past winter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis currently estimates that gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 0.6% (at an annualized rate) in the first quarter of 2015. And as in the previous year, harsh winter weather has been cited by some observers as being responsible for the slowdown. However, there is substantial disagreement on the impact of weather on economic activity.
Chicago Fed Letter

V-Shaped Recovery Eludes G-7 Countries
Arbogast, Iris; Wen, Yi (2020-11-16)
Economic growth should overshoot its long-run trend to make up for the downturn caused by the pandemic. So far, this hasn’t happened.
On the Economy

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