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Working Paper
What about Japan?
Lustig, Hanno; Cole, Harold L.; Chien, YiLi (2023-11-06)
As a result of the BoJ's large-scale asset purchases, the consolidated Japanese government borrows mostly at the floating rate from households and invests in longer-duration risky assets to earn an extra 3% of GDP. We quantify the impact of Japan's low-rate policies on its government and households. Because of the duration mismatch on the government balance sheet, the government's fiscal space expands when real rates decline, allowing the government to keep its promises to older Japanese households. A typical younger Japanese household does not have enough duration in its portfolio to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-028

Working Paper
Optimal time-consistent government debt maturity
Debortoli, Davide; Yared, Pierre; Nunes, Ricardo (2016-05-17)
The current literature on a government's optimal debt maturity structure contends that by purchasing short-term assets and selling long-term debt, it is possible to fully insulate the economy against fiscal shocks. The required short and long positions are large relative to GDP and constant. The market value of debt adjusts automatically and the constant debt positions and fluctuating bond prices insulate against potential shocks. However, achieving the goal of averting future shocks depends on the government perfectly committing to the future fiscal policy, for without this sustained ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-4

Working Paper
Tax Policy Endogeneity: Evidence from R&D Tax Credits
Chang, Andrew C. (2014-11-21)
Because policymakers may consider the state of the economy when setting taxes, endogeneity bias can arise in regression models that estimate relationships between economic variables and taxes. This paper quantifies the policy endogeneity bias and estimates the impact of R&D tax incentives on R&D expenditures at the U.S. state level. Identifying tax variation comes from changes in federal corporate tax laws that heterogeneously impact state-level R&D tax incentives due to the simultaneity of state and federal corporate taxes. With this exogenous variation, my preferred estimates indicate a 1 ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-101

Discussion Paper
Revisiting Federal Student Loan Forgiveness: An Update Based on the White House Plan
Goss, Jacob; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle (2022-09-27)
On August 24, 2022, the White House released a plan to cancel federal student loans for most borrowers. In April, we wrote about the costs and who most benefits from a few hypothetical loan forgiveness proposals using our Consumer Credit Panel, based on Equifax credit report data. In this post, we update our framework to consider the White House plan now that parameters are known, with estimates for the total amount of forgiven loans and the distribution of who holds federal student loans before and after the proposed debt jubilee.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220927

Working Paper
The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2025-09-25)
This document contains a technical description of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and maintained by the Research Division of the St. Louis Fed as one of its tools for forecasting and policy analysis. The St. Louis Fed model departs from an otherwise standard medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model along two main dimensions: first, it allows for household heterogeneity, in the form of workers and capitalists, who have different marginal propensities to consume (MPC). Second, it explicitly models a fiscal sector endowed with multiple spending and revenue ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-014

Speech
Some unpleasant stabilization arithmetic: remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's 62nd Economic Conference, \\"What are the Consequences of Long Spells of Low Interest Rates?\\", Boston, Massachusetts, September 8, 2018
Tootell, Geoffrey M. B.; Rosengren, Eric S.; Peek, Joe (2018-09-08)
These slides represent the combined thoughts of President Rosengren and his co-presenters, Joe Peek and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell.
Speech

Working Paper
The Road of Federal Infrastructure Spending Passes Through the States
Leduc, Sylvain; Wilson, Daniel J. (2022-02-01)
Because federal infrastructure spending largely takes the form of grants to state governments, the macroeconomic impact of such packages depends on the share of federal grants that “passes through” to actual infrastructure spending done by states. A low degree of pass-through would tend to mute the economic impact from federal grants, reflecting a crowd-out effect on state spending. We first revisit Knight’s (2002) influential finding of near-zero pass-through (perfect crowd out) of federal highway grants. That result is found to be specification-sensitive and is reversed completely in ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-03

Briefing
Noise Bargaining: A New Perspective on Single Proposers, Negotiation and Delays
Gordon, Grey (2025-11-12)
Many real-world bargaining problems feature a single proposer and delays in reaching agreements.Most existing bargaining models feature alternating proposers with immediate settlement.Noise bargaining — a new approach discussed in my recent working paper, co-authored with Pablo Guerron-Quintana — introduces a single proposer with endogenous delay.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 42

Working Paper
FISCAL SURPRISES AT THE FOMC
van Norden, Simon; Croushore, Dean (2017-06-20)
This paper provides a detailed examination of a new set of fiscal forecasts for the U.S. assembled by Croushore and van Norden (2017) from FOMC briefing books. The data are of particular interest because (1) they afford a look at fiscal forecasts over six complete business cycles and several fiscal policy regimes, covering both peacetime and several wars, (2) the forecasts were precisely those presented to monetary policymakers, (3) they include frequently updated estimates of both actual and cyclically adjusted deficits, (4) unlike most other U.S. fiscal forecasts, they were neither partisan ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-13

Speech
Monetary policymaking in today’s environment: finding “policy space” in a low-rate world: remarks at the 33rd Annual Cornelson Distinguished Lecture at Davidson College, Davidson, North Carolina, April 15, 2019
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-04-15)
Now is a good time to reflect on the Federal Reserve?s monetary policy framework. The U.S. and many developed economies are likely to be challenged by the implications of a low interest rate environment for their ability to offset recessions. The reality of limited monetary policy space provides important context for why the Federal Reserve should broadly consider its current policies and their likely outcomes. While I would currently prefer moving to an inflation range, I look forward to future discussions. A key matter for me will be considering whether the possible changes to the Fed?s ...
Speech , Paper 143

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