Search Results
Working Paper
Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms
In a randomized control trial of customer-supplier firm pairs in New Zealand, we treat with information one firm in a pair and analyze the treatment's effects on the expectations and actions of both the directly treated firms (direct effect) and connected firms that did not directly receive information (spillover effect). The direct and spillover effects on expectations and actions are significant and of comparable magnitude. Higher expected future real GDP growth increases prices and employment, while greater uncertainty about it reduces prices, investment, and employment. We show that ...
Journal Article
Consumer and Firm Perceptions of the Aggregate Labor Market Conditions
In the pre-pandemic period, measures of consumer labor market perceptions correlated well with the aggregate unemployment rate. However, for more than a year during the pandemic, consumers perceived labor markets as much tighter than the high aggregate unemployment rate implied. In contrast, there is no such a departure from the historic relation if we use the jobless unemployment rate-unemployment for reasons other than temporary layoffs-as a measure of labor market tightness. Using a measure of the firm labor market perceptions from the National Federation of Independent Business, we find ...
Working Paper
Monetary Transmission through Bank Securities Portfolios
We study the transmission of monetary policy through bank securities portfolios using granular supervisory data on U.S. bank securities, hedging positions, and corporate credit. Banks that experienced larger losses on their securities during the 2022-2023 monetary tightening cycle extended less credit to firms. This spillover effect was stronger for available-for-sale securities, unhedged securities, and banks that must include unrealized gains and losses in their regulatory capital. A structural model, disciplined by our cross-sectional regression estimates, shows that interest rate ...
Speech
The Federal Reserve’s Corporate Credit Facilities: Why, How, and For Whom
Remarks at The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness (delivered via videoconference).
Speech
The Impact of the Pandemic on Cultural Capital in the Finance Industry
Remarks at the Risk USA Conference (delivered via videoconference).
Working Paper
Firms as Learning Environments: Implications for Earnings Dynamics and Job Search
This paper demonstrates that heterogeneity in firms’ promotion of human capital accumulation is an important determinant of life-cycle earnings inequality. I use administrative micro data from Germany to show that different establishments offer systematically different earnings growth rates for their workers. This observation suggests that that the increase in inequality over the life cycle reflects not only inherent worker variation, but also differences in the firms that workers happen to match with over their lifetimes. To quantify this channel, I develop a life-cycle search model with ...
Speech
A Resolution for 2021: No New LIBOR
Remarks at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association’s LIBOR Transition Forum (delivered via videoconference).
Working Paper
Firms as Learning Environments: Implications for Earnings Dynamics and Job Search
This paper demonstrates that heterogeneity in firms’ promotion of human capital accumulation is an important determinant of life-cycle earnings inequality. I use administrative micro data from Germany to show that different establishments offer systematically different earnings growth rates for their workers. This observation suggests that that the increase in inequality over the life cycle reflects not only inherent worker variation, but also differences in the firms that workers happen to match with over their lifetimes. To quantify this channel, I develop a life-cycle search model with ...
Working Paper
Immigrants' Legalization and Firms: Evidence from the 2007 EU Enlargement
How do firms respond to permanent changes in the legal status of a substantial group of migrants? We study the effects of the entry to the European Union of Bulgaria and Romania in the Italian labor market. This event was particularly relevant for Italy, where Romanians constitute approximately one fifth of the immigrant population. We use administrative employer-employee data on the universe of private-sector workers and an IV-DID design to identify the effects of this change in migrants' legal status on firms' personnel and performance. Firms exhibit an increase in the share of migrant ...
Speech
Prepare for Landing
Remarks at the ISDA Benchmark Strategies Forum (delivered via videoconference).