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Discussion Paper
How Has COVID-19 Affected Banking System Vulnerability?
Fringuellotti, Fulvia; Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Duarte, Fernando M.; Kovner, Anna; Blickle, Kristian S.; Crosignani, Matteo (2020-11-16)
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in banks’ balance sheets. To understand how these changes have affected the stability of the U.S. banking system, we provide an update of four analytical models that aim to capture different aspects of banking system vulnerability.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201116

Report
Insurance, Weather, and Financial Stability
Kahn, Charles M.; Panjwani, Ahyan; Santos, João A. C. (2024-05-01)
In this paper, we introduce a model to study the interaction between insurance and banking. We build on the Federal Crop Insurance Act of 1980, which significantly expanded and restructured the decades-old federal crop insurance program and adverse weather shocks – over-exposure of crops to heat and acute weather events – to investigate some insights from our model. Banks increased lending to the agricultural sector in counties with higher insurance coverage after 1980, even when affected by adverse weather shocks. Further, while they increased risky lending, they were sufficiently ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1107

Report
Runs and Flights to Safety: Are Stablecoins the New Money Market Funds?
Macchiavelli, Marco; Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Anadu, Kenechukwu E.; Cipriani, Marco; La Spada, Gabriele; Wang, J. Christina; Huang, Catherine; Malfroy-Camine, Antoine; Azar, Pablo D.; Landoni, Mattia (2023-09-01)
Similar to the more traditional money market funds (MMFs), stablecoins aim to provide investors with safe, money-like assets. We investigate similarities and differences between these two investment products. Like MMFs, stablecoins suffer from “flight-to-safety” dynamics: we document net flows from riskier to safer stablecoins on days of crypto-market stress and estimate a discrete “break-the-buck” threshold of $1, below which stablecoin redemptions accelerate. We then focus on two specific stablecoin runs, in 2022 and 2023, showing that the same flight-to-safety dynamics also ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1073

Speech
Monetary, fiscal, and financial stability policy tools: are we equipped for the next recession?: remarks at the 2018 Economics Department Grossman Lecture, Colby College, Waterville, Maine, April 18, 2018
Rosengren, Eric S. (2018-04-18)
The focus of the talk was on tools that are available to policymakers once a significant adverse financial shock occurs.
Speech , Paper 132

Speech
Five Points About Monetary Policy and Financial Stability (06-04-2016) Sveriges Riksbank Conference on Rethinking the Central Bank’s Mandate, Stockholm, Sweden
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-06-04)
Since the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed, economists and policymakers have been evaluating the factors that led to the crisis, assessing what could have been done to prevent, or at least limit, the damage, and considering what can and should be done to reduce the probability and impact of future disruptions to financial stability. That this is a very broad topic can easily be seen by looking at the agendas of this and previous years? conferences organized by the Riksbank. Today I will focus my remarks on the nexus between monetary policy and financial ...
Speech , Paper 72

Working Paper
Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-03-24)
I study the effects of the 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak in the United States and subsequent fiscal policy response in a nonlinear DSGE model. The pandemic is a shock to the utility of contact-intensive services that propagates to other sectors via general equilibrium, triggering a deep recession. I use a calibrated version of the model to analyze different types of fiscal policies. I find that UI benefits are the most effective tool to stabilize income for borrowers, who are the hardest hit, while savers may favor unconditional transfers. Liquidity assistance programs are effective if the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-006

Working Paper
The Role of U.S. Monetary Policy in Global Banking Crises
Durdu, Bora; Martin, Alex; Zer, Ilknur (2019-05-28)
We examine the role of U.S. monetary policy in global financial stability by using a cross-country database spanning the period from 1870-2010 across 69 countries. U.S. monetary policy tightening increases the probability of banking crises for those countries with direct linkages to the U.S., either in the form of trade links or significant share of USD-denominated liabilities. Conversely, if a country is integrated globally, rather than having a direct exposure, the effect is ambiguous. One possible channel we identify is capital flows: If the correction in capital flows is disorderly (e.g., ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-039

Report
Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges
Boyarchenko, Nina; Favara, Giovanni; Schularick, Moritz (2022-02-01)
This paper reviews literature on the empirical relationship between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and how monetary policy affects that connection. Financial vulnerabilities build up over time, with both risk appetite and risk taking rising during economic expansions. To some extent, financial crises are predictable and have severe real economic consequences when they occur. Empirically it is difficult to link monetary policy to financial vulnerabilities, in part because financial cycles have long durations, making it difficult to separate effects of changes in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1003

Speech
Some unpleasant stabilization arithmetic: remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's 62nd Economic Conference, \\"What are the Consequences of Long Spells of Low Interest Rates?\\", Boston, Massachusetts, September 8, 2018
Tootell, Geoffrey M. B.; Rosengren, Eric S.; Peek, Joe (2018-09-08)
These slides represent the combined thoughts of President Rosengren and his co-presenters, Joe Peek and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell.
Speech

Speech
Economic Fragility: Implications for Recovery from the Pandemic
Rosengren, Eric S. (2020-10-13)
President Rosengren’s comments were delivered as part of the Annual Regional and Community Bankers Conference, and were based on a speech he delivered on October 8, 2020 for the Marburg Memorial Lecture, Marquette University Economics Department.
Speech

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