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Working Paper
The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy
Justiniano, Alejandro; Tambalotti, Andrea; Primiceri, Giorgio E. (2013-11-29)
We use a quantitative equilibrium model with houses, collateralized debt and foreign borrowing to study the impact of global imbalances on the U.S. economy in the 2000s. Our results suggest that the dynamics of foreign capital flows account for between one fourth and one third of the increase in U.S. house prices and household debt that preceded the financial crisis. The key to these findings is that the model generates the sustained low level of interest rates observed over that period.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-17

Speech
Unprecedented Times in our Economy
Evans, Charles L. (2008-10-17)
Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Fond du Lac Area Association of Commerce Fond du Lac, WI
Speech , Paper 21

Working Paper
Cross-border banking on the two sides of the Atlantic: does it have an impact on bank crisis management?
Nieto, Maria J.; Wall, Larry D. (2015-11-01)
In the United States and the European Union (EU), political incentives to oppose cross-border banking have been strong in spite of the measurable benefits to the real economy from breaking down geographic barriers. Even a federal-level supervisor and safety net are not by themselves sufficient to incentivizing cross-border banking although differences in the institutional set-up are reflected in the way the two areas responded to the crisis. The U.S. response was a coordinated response, and the cost of resolving banks was borne at the national level. Moreover, the Federal Deposit Insurance ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2015-11

Report
LIBOR: origins, economics, crisis, scandal, and reform
Hou, David; Skeie, David R. (2014-03-01)
The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is a widely used indicator of funding conditions in the interbank market. As of 2013, LIBOR underpins more than $300 trillion of financial contracts, including swaps and futures, in addition to trillions more in variable-rate mortgage and student loans. LIBOR's volatile behavior during the financial crisis provoked questions surrounding its credibility. Ongoing regulatory investigations have uncovered misconduct by a number of financial institutions. Policymakers across the globe now face the task of reforming LIBOR in the aftermath of the scandal and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 667

Report
Credit supply disruptions: from credit crunches to financial crisis
Rosengren, Eric S.; Peek, Joe (2015-10-01)
Events that transpired during the recent financial crisis highlight the important role that financial intermediaries still play in the economy, especially during economic downturns. While the breadth and severity of the financial crisis took most observers by surprise, it has renewed academic interest in understanding the effects on the real economy of both financial shocks and the changing nature of financial intermediation. This interest in the real effects of financial shocks highlights a literature that began more than 20 years ago associated with the bank credit crunch of the early ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 15-5

Working Paper
Financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy
Owyang, Michael T.; Galvão, Ana B. (2014-07-24)
Some financial stress events lead to macroeconomic downturns, while others appear to be isolated to financial markets. We identify financial stress regimes using a model that explicitly links financial variables to macroeconomic outcomes. The stress regimes are identified using an unbalanced panel of financial variables with an embedded method for variable selection. Our identified stress regimes are associated with corporate credit tightening and with NBER recessions. An exogenous deterioration in our financial condition index has strong negative effects in economic activity, and negative ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-20

Discussion Paper
Crisis Chronicles: The Panic of 1825 and the Most Fantastic Financial Swindle of All Time
Narron, James; Morgan, Donald P. (2015-04-10)
Centered in London, the banking panic of 1825 has been called the first modern financial crisis, the first Latin American crisis, and the first emerging market crisis. And while the panic displayed many of the key elements of past crises we have covered?fluctuations in money growth, an investment bubble, a stock market crash, and bank runs?this crisis had its own twists, including a Bank of England that hesitated before stepping in as lender of last resort. But it is perhaps best known for an infamous bond market swindle surrounding an entirely made-up Central American principality. In this ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150410

Discussion Paper
Did Trade Finance Contribute to the Global Trade Collapse?
Amiti, Mary; Weinstein, David E. (2011-06-29)
The financial crisis of 2008-09 brought about one of the largest collapses in world trade since the end of World War II. Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, the value of real global GDP fell 4.6 percent while exports plummeted 17 percent, as can be seen in the chart below. The dramatic decline in world trade—a loss of $761 billion in nominal exports—came through two channels: decreased demand for imports and supply effects, most likely arising from financial constraints. In this post, we look at evidence that supply effects, including curtailed funding for ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110629

Working Paper
Explaining the Life Cycle of Bank-Sponsored Money Market Funds: An Application of the Regulatory Dialectic
Jacewitz, Stefan; Pogach, Jonathan; Unal, Haluk; Wu, Chengjun (2024-02-05)
In this paper, we present empirical evidence of the regulatory dialectic in the prime institutional money market fund (PI-MMF) industry. The “regulatory dialectic”, developed by Kane (1977, 1981), describes how banks and regulators react to each other. For decades, a cap on commercial deposit interest rates fueled dramatic growth in bank-sponsored PI-MMFs as a form of shadow banking. During the growth period, banks with more commercial deposits were more likely to enter the PI-MMF industry in an effort to keep their commercial customers in affiliated subsidiaries. However, the 2008 crisis ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 24-01

Report
Auctions implemented by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the Great Recession
Sporn, John; Armantier, Olivier (2013-09-01)
During the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve implemented several novel programs to address adverse conditions in financial markets. Three of these temporary programs relied on an auction mechanism: the Term Auction Facility, the Term Securities Lending Facility, and the disposition of the Maiden Lane II portfolio. These auctions differed from one another in several dimensions: their objectives, rules, and the financial asset being traded. The object of this paper is to document, compare, and provide a rationale for the mechanics of the different auctions implemented by the Federal Reserve ...
Staff Reports , Paper 635

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