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Discussion Paper
The Geography of AI Demand in the Southeast: Patterns of Growth and Labor Market Structure
Galeano, Sergio (2026-08-13)
Artificial intelligence (AI) tools have moved from niche to a broadly discussed force in the labor market, with a growing body of research exploring how AI may shape skill demand and broader labor market outcomes. Much of the current research suggests that the effects of AI are unlikely to be evenly distributed across occupations and education levels, and that differences in regional and local labor market composition may shape how these changes unfold.2 At the same time, there remains considerable uncertainty about how these effects will materialize in practice. Some analyses focus on how AI ...
Workforce Currents , Paper 2026-4

Journal Article
Where Are They Now? Workers with Young Children during COVID-19
Pitts, M. Melinda (2021-09-01)
Employment levels for prime-age workers have been greatly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline has fallen disproportionately on females, especially compared to past recessions, and the presence of young children is a driving factor in this differential response. This article identifies the impact of gender, young children, and the presence of a spouse on the attachment to employment for individuals who were employed immediately prior to the pandemic. Compared to the Great Recession and the most recent expansionary period in 2019, women with young children have a relatively lower ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 10

Journal Article
Do Credit Supply Shocks Constrain Employment Growth of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises?
Willis, Jonathan L.; Baslandze, Salomé; Minoiu, Camelia; Penciakova, Veronika (2023-09-25)
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) made outsized contributions to net employment growth during the pandemic recession and recovery. However, credit conditions have tightened significantly during the past year and might hinder growth for small firms going forward. Using data on bank lending to small businesses and employment growth, we estimate that a tightening in bank credit supply of 1 percentage point is associated with an 11 percent decline in SMEs' net job creation rate. This estimate indicates that a bank credit tightening about one-third the size of the tightening observed ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2023 , Issue 5

Report
The Decline in Access to Jobs and the Location of Employment Growth in US Metro Areas: Implications for Economic Opportunity and Mobility
Fee, Kyle (2020-10-01)
Job access, defined as the number or share of jobs found within a fixed distance or travel time from a worker’s residence, is an important indicator of economic opportunity and mobility. Access to jobs has been associated with positive individual economic outcomes for low-income minority workers.1 By contrast, low rates of job access have been linked to longer unemployment spells and lower rates of generational economic mobility.2Increasing job accessibility has been found to significantly decrease the duration of joblessness among lower-income displaced workers, especially for African ...
Community Development Publications

Report
Does Job Quality Affect Occupational Mobility?
Fee, Kyle (2022-08-04)
Job quality, a well-known topic in workforce development circles, is an underutilized but useful lens with which to examine labor market conditions. Given the record number of resignations and available job openings, especially in the lower-paid industry sectors, along with popular labor market narratives around the Great R’s (Resignation, Renegotiation, Reshuffle), I wonder to what extent job quality plays a role in the occupational mobility of workers. Occupational mobility includes all potential outcomes an individual has when holding a job. In addition to the option of changing to ...
Community Development Publications

Will AI replace your job? Perhaps not in the next decade
Wynne, Mark A.; Derr, Lillian (2025-06-03)
Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence have raised concerns about these technologies' impact on employment. The ultimate effects of AI on the workforce will depend on the extent to which AI augments (or complements) rather than automates (or substitutes for) workers' tasks. Will this new technology aid workers or replace them?
Dallas Fed Economics

Break-even employment declined after immigration changes
Cheremukhin, Anton (2025-10-09)
Recent employment reports show U.S. payroll employment growth has cooled from its torrid pace in previous years, raising the question of whether this signals a healthy rebalancing or the start of a concerning slowdown.
Dallas Fed Economics

Young workers’ employment drops in occupations with high AI exposure
Atkinson, Tyler; Yamco, Shane (2026-01-06)
In recent years, unemployment has gradually ticked up, and job searchers report increased difficulty finding new work. Is this related to AI?
Dallas Fed Economics

Texas posts job gains in August, bolstering outlook despite signs of slowing
Dixon, Ethan; Morales-Burnett, Diego; Assanie, Laila (2024-09-26)
The Texas economic expansion continued in August despite some signs of slowing. Employment growth strengthened, rebounding from weakness in the prior two months.
Dallas Fed Economics

Strong U.S. employment driven by sectors less sensitive to business cycles
Mau, Ron; Chudik, Alexander (2025-04-01)
The U.S. has enjoyed strong payroll job gains in the past couple of years despite generally restrictive monetary policy. The sectoral composition of employment reveals job growth has been concentrated in areas that are the least sensitive to national employment fluctuations over the business cycle.
Dallas Fed Economics

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