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Discussion Paper
Capital Flight inside the Euro Area: Cooling Off a Fire Sale
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2013-10-02)
Countries in the euro area periphery such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain saw large-scale capital flight in 2011 and the first half of 2012. While events unfolded much like a balance of payments crisis, the contraction in domestic credit was less severe than would ordinarily be caused by capital flight of this scale. Why was that? An important reason is that much of the capital flight was financed by credits to deficit countries? central banks, with those credits extended collectively by other central banks in the euro area. This balance of payments financing was paired with policies to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131002

Discussion Paper
How Do Natural Disasters Affect U.S. Small Business Owners?
Hiti, Martin; Kramer, Claire; Sarkar, Asani (2022-09-06)
Recent research has linked climate change and socioeconomic inequality (see here, here, and here). But what are the effects of climate change on small businesses, particularly those owned by people of color, which tend to be more resource-constrained and less resilient? In a series of two posts, we use the Federal Reserve’s Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS) to document small businesses’ experiences with natural disasters and how these experiences differ based on the race and ethnicity of business owners. This first post shows that small firms owned by people of color sustain losses from ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220906a

Working Paper
Financial Frictions, the Housing Market, and Unemployment
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Branch, William A.; Rocheteau, Guillaume (2014-11)
We develop a two-sector search-matching model of the labor market with imperfect mobility of workers, augmented to incorporate a housing market and a frictional goods market. Homeowners use home equity as collateral to finance idiosyncratic consumption opportunities. A financial innovation that raises the acceptability of homes as collateral raises house prices and reduces unemployment. It also triggers a reallocation of workers, with the direction of the change depending on firms? market power in the goods market. A calibrated version of the model under adaptive learning can account for ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-26

Speech
Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum Fed Week Financial Stability Session
Rosengren, Eric S. (2021-06-25)
Short-term credit markets have been disrupted in the past two recessions, and significant risks remain. For example, prime money market mutual funds and stablecoins bear attention. Substantial emergency actions were necessary to support lending during the pandemic, and the economy would benefit from being less dependent on ad hoc measures in crises. A properly implemented Countercyclical Capital Buffer, or CCyB, would help avoid some of these issues. Unfortunately, emergency facilities do well supporting large firms but are challenged somewhat to reach small firms. Without better facilities ...
Speech

Discussion Paper
Credit Checkup: A Look at the Financing Experiences of Small Businesses in Virginia, Washington, D.C., and North Carolina
Corcoran, Emily Waverling; Tringali, Anthony (2024-08-27)
There are about 6.3 million businesses with employees (or "employer firms") across the United States, and just over half a million of those firms are located in the Richmond Fed's Fifth District, which includes Maryland, the District of Columbia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and most of West Virginia. Financing can play a critical role in the health of these businesses, and small business credit access is among the community development finance research topics that the Richmond Fed prioritizes to help support economic vitality in communities.
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
(Unmet) Credit Demand of American Households
Livingston, Max; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Zafar, Basit (2013-11-06)
One of the direct effects of the 2008 financial crisis on U.S. households was a sharp tightening of credit. Households that had previously been able to borrow relatively freely through credit cards, home equity loans, or personal loans suddenly found those lines closed off—just when they needed them the most. In recent months, aggregate statistics such as the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Credit series and the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey have shown a gradual improvement in consumer credit. The former series is an indicator of interaction of credit supply and demand, while the latter ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131106

Working Paper
Financial Technology and the 1990s Housing Boom
Johnson, Stephanie; Tzur-Ilan, Nitzan (2025-01-17)
The 1990s rollout of mortgage automated underwriting systems allowed for complex underwriting rules, cut processing time and raised house prices substantially. We show that locations exposed to initial adopters of Freddie Mac’s Loan Prospector system experienced an early housing boom due to a switch to statistically-informed underwriting rules. Loan Prospector adoption increased lending at high loan-to-income ratios by around 18 percent. Applying our estimated response to lenders who adopted later, we find that the rollout of new lending standards with the GSEs’ systems can explain more ...
Working Papers , Paper 2506

Report
Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges
Boyarchenko, Nina; Favara, Giovanni; Schularick, Moritz (2022-02-01)
This paper reviews literature on the empirical relationship between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and how monetary policy affects that connection. Financial vulnerabilities build up over time, with both risk appetite and risk taking rising during economic expansions. To some extent, financial crises are predictable and have severe real economic consequences when they occur. Empirically it is difficult to link monetary policy to financial vulnerabilities, in part because financial cycles have long durations, making it difficult to separate effects of changes in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1003

Discussion Paper
How and Why Do Consumers Use “Buy Now, Pay Later”?
Aidala, Felix; Mangrum, Daniel; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2024-02-14)
In a previous post, we highlighted that financially fragile households are disproportionately likely to use “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) payment plans. In this post, we shed further light on BNPL’s place in its users’ household finances, with a particular focus on how use varies by a household’s level of financial fragility. Our results reveal substantially different use patterns, as more-fragile households tend to use the service to make frequent, relatively small, purchases that they might have trouble affording otherwise. In contrast, financially stable households tend to not use ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240214

Working Paper
How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Willen, Paul S.; Vickery, James; Fuster, Andreas; Hizmo, Aurel; Lambie-Hanson, Lauren (2021-05-27)
We study the evolution of US mortgage credit supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the mortgage market experienced a historic boom in 2020, we show there was also a large and sustained increase in intermediation markups that limited the pass-through of low rates to borrowers. Markups typically rise during periods of peak demand, but this historical relationship explains only part of the large increase during the pandemic. We present evidence that pandemic-related labor market frictions and operational bottlenecks contributed to unusually inelastic credit supply, and that ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-20

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