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Journal Article
Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World
Daly, Mary C. (2023-03-09)
Restoring price stability is a key part of the Fed’s mandate, and it is what the American people expect. Achieving it will take time and a broad view of economic conditions. Policymakers have to respond to an economy that is evolving in real time and prepare for what the economy will look like in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies at Princeton University on March 4.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 08 , Pages 8

Speech
This Time Is Different…Because We Are
Daly, Mary C. (2022-02-23)
Presentation to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall, Los Angeles, CA, February 23, 2022, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Journal Article
Wage Growth When Inflation Is High
Jordà, Òscar; Liu, Celeste; Nechio, Fernanda; Rivera-Reyes, Fabián (2022-09-06)
In a tight labor market, workers are able to respond to price increases by bargaining for higher wages. Analyzing conditions since the pandemic shows that, in the recent environment of elevated inflation and low unemployment, wages have become much more sensitive to expected price inflation than in the past. The impact of inflation expectations on wages also appears to have become longer lasting.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 25 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Is the American Rescue Plan Taking Us Back to the ’60s?
Barnichon, Regis; Oliveira, Luiz E.; Shapiro, Adam Hale (2021-10-18)
The American Rescue Plan provided fiscal support during a strong economic rebound, raising concerns about the risk of fueling inflation. One way to assess this risk of economic overheating uses the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, which measures labor market slack more accurately and, hence, can predict future inflation better than the unemployment rate alone. Estimates suggest that the fiscal plan acts to temporarily raise the vacancy-to- unemployment ratio, in turn pushing up inflation by about 0.3 percentage point per year through 2022.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 27 , Pages 06

Journal Article
Small Business Lending and the Paycheck Protection Program
Mueller, Jack; Spiegel, Mark M. (2023-04-10)
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and the PPP Liquidity Facility were launched early in the pandemic to help many small businesses survive. These programs encouraged banks to lend more extensively to small businesses over the first half of 2020. Since then, however, banks have reduced their exposure to these loans, leaving no significant changes in small business lending associated with participation in these programs over the three-year period from 2020 through 2022. This raises some doubt that emergency lending programs encourage long-term relationships that outlast the programs.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 10 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Enhanced Unemployment Insurance Benefits in the United States during COVID-19: Equity and Efficiency
Valletta, Robert G.; Yilma, Mary (2024-05-06)
We assess the effects of the historically unprecedented expansion of U.S. unemployment insurance (UI) payments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The adverse economic impacts of the pandemic, notably the pattern of job losses and earnings reductions, were disproportionately born by lower-income individuals. Focusing on household income as a broad measure of well-being, we document that UI payments almost completely offset the increase in household income inequality that otherwise would have occurred in 2020 and 2021. We also examine the impacts of the $600 increase in weekly UI benefit payments, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-15

Working Paper
Housing Demand and Remote Work
Mondragon, John; Wieland, Johannes F. (2022-05-26)
What explains record U.S. house price growth since late 2019? We show that the shift to remote work explains over one half of the 23.8 percent national house price increase over this period. Using variation in remote work exposure across U.S. metropolitan areas we estimate that an additional percentage point of remote work causes a 0.93 percent increase in house prices after controlling for negative spillovers from migration. This cross-sectional estimate combined with the aggregate shift to remote work implies that remote work raised aggregate U.S. house prices by 15.1 percent. Using a model ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-11

Journal Article
Residential Instability in the Bay Area through the COVID-19 Pandemic
Hwang, Jackelyn; Liang, Becky; Kumar, Vasudha; Vargo, Jason (2022-07-11)
This report draws on a unique, longitudinal dataset of over 250,000 San Francisco Bay Area residents to examine residential instability—including moving, crowding, and financial health—in the Bay Area during the pandemic. Our research finds a substantial decrease in moving during the pandemic, particularly for residents of extremely low socioeconomic status (SES). At the same time, we report a concerning rise in residents living in crowded conditions and experiencing declining credit scores. These trends suggest that COVID-19 rent relief programs and eviction moratoria may be successful ...
Community Development Research Brief , Volume 2022 , Issue 04 , Pages 37

Journal Article
Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation
Lansing, Kevin J. (2022-05-23)
How much persistent versus transitory forces contribute to inflation influences the Federal Reserve’s ability to achieve its goal of 2% average inflation over time. If elevated inflation is driven mainly by persistent shocks, then a stronger and longer-lasting policy response is likely to be needed to bring inflation back down. Recent data show that consecutive changes in monthly inflation rates have tended to move increasingly in the same direction. This pattern suggests that the contribution of persistent shocks to inflation has been rising since mid-2019.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 13 , Pages 05

Journal Article
Assessing the Recent Rise in Unemployment
Avaradi, Greeshma; Miskanic, Brandon E.; Wiczer, David; Kudlyak, Marianna (2025-04-14)
The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market transitions account for this rise. One dominant factor appears to be a fall in the job-finding rate—the share of unemployed individuals finding employment. The duration of unemployment has also increased recently. In past decades, these patterns have frequently occurred during the onset of recessions, which suggests that these data should be closely monitored.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 09 , Pages 6

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