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Speech
Policy Nimbleness Through Forward Guidance
Daly, Mary C. (2022-06-24)
Presentation at Shadow Open Market Committee Conference, Chapman University, Orange, CA, June 24, 2022, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Journal Article
Pandemic-Era Liquid Wealth Is Running Dry
Abdelrahman, Hamza; Oliveira, Luiz E.; Shapiro, Adam Hale (2024-08-12)
Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed significantly by income group. While middle- and lower-income households hold substantially less liquid wealth than implied by pre-pandemic projections, the level for higher-income households remains close to its pre-pandemic path. Over the same period, credit card delinquency rates initially dropped and, more recently, have steadily risen as pandemic-era liquid wealth was depleted, especially for ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 21 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic
Nechio, Fernanda; Jordà, Òscar (2023-04-01)
Following the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation surged to levels last seen in the 1980s. Motivated by vast differences in pandemic support across countries, we investigate the subsequent response of inflation and its feedback to wages. We exploit the differences in pandemic support to identify the effect that these programs had on inflation and the passthrough to wages. Our empirical approach focuses on a novel dynamic difference-in-differences method based on local projections. Our estimates suggest that an increase of 5 percentage points in direct transfers (relative to trend) ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-17

Journal Article
Comparing Pandemic Unemployment to Past U.S. Recoveries
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2021-11-29)
Unemployment fell at a slow and steady rate in the 10 cyclical recoveries from 1949 through 2019. These historical patterns also apply to the recovery from the pandemic recession after accounting for the unprecedented burst of temporary layoffs early in the pandemic followed by their rapid reversal from April to November 2020. Unemployment for other reasons—which has been most important in other recent recoveries—did not start declining until November 2020. Since then, unemployment for other reasons has declined at a faster pace than its historical average.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 33 , Pages 05

Journal Article
“Great Resignations” Are Common During Fast Recoveries
Hobijn, Bart (2022-04-04)
The record percentage of workers who are quitting their jobs, known as the “Great Resignation,” is not a shift in worker attitudes in the wake of the pandemic. Evidence on which workers are quitting suggests that it reflects the strong rebound of the demand for younger and less-educated workers. Historical data on quits in manufacturing suggest that the current wave is not unusual. Waves of job quits have occurred during all fast recoveries in the postwar period.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 08 , Pages 06

Journal Article
Remote Work and Housing Demand
Kmetz, Augustus; Mondragon, John; Wieland, Johannes F. (2022-09-26)
The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the way households work. Nearly a third of employees still worked from home part time or full time as of August 2022. This has significantly increased housing demand and is a key factor explaining why U.S. house prices grew 24% between November 2019 and November 2021. Analysis shows that the shift to remote work may account for more than half of overall house price increases and similar increases in rents. This fundamental evolution in work-related housing demand may be important for future house prices.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 26 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Two Years into COVID, What’s the State of U.S. Businesses?
Paul, Pascal (2022-08-15)
More than two years after the outbreak of COVID-19, concerns remain that U.S. businesses are substantially more vulnerable and less productive than in the past. Using extensive data on private and public firms allows for a detailed assessment of these concerns. According to a number of performance measures, businesses borrowing from large U.S. banks appear relatively healthy, increased leverage is concentrated among safer companies rather than riskier ones, and probabilities of default are close to pre-crisis levels.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 22 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Inflation Since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges
Hajdini, Ina; Shapiro, Adam Hale; Smith, Andrew Lee; Villar Vallenas, Daniel (2025-08-29)
This paper reviews the drivers of the post-pandemic U.S. inflation surge and subsequent decline, including the behavior and role of inflation expectations. The sharp rise in inflation reflected severe imbalances between supply and demand stemming from the shocks of the pandemic and the policy response. Measures of short-term inflation expectations increased alongside realized inflation, especially those of households and firms, which may have contributed to inflation’s persistence through price- and wage-setting behavior. However, measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2025-16

Speech
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
Daly, Mary C. (2022-04-20)
Presentation to the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) Spring Outlook 2022,April 20, 2022, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Working Paper
Housing Demand and Remote Work
Mondragon, John; Wieland, Johannes F. (2022-05-26)
What explains record U.S. house price growth since late 2019? We show that the shift to remote work explains over one half of the 23.8 percent national house price increase over this period. Using variation in remote work exposure across U.S. metropolitan areas we estimate that an additional percentage point of remote work causes a 0.93 percent increase in house prices after controlling for negative spillovers from migration. This cross-sectional estimate combined with the aggregate shift to remote work implies that remote work raised aggregate U.S. house prices by 15.1 percent. Using a model ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-11

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