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Keywords:business cycle OR Business cycle OR Business Cycle 

Working Paper
Monetary Policy with Racial Inequality

I develop a heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model featuring racial inequality in income and wealth, and studies interactions between racial inequality and monetary policy. Black and Hispanic workers gain more from accommodative monetary policy than White workers mainly due to higher labor market risks. Their gains are larger also because of a larger proportion of them are hand-to-mouth, while wealthy White workers gain more from asset price appreciation. Monetary and fiscal policies are substitutes in providing insurance against cyclical labor market risks. Racial minorities gain even more ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-09

Working Paper
Mortgage Borrowing and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment

This paper studies the transmission of the major shocks in the U.S. housing market in the 2000s to consumption and residential investment. Using geographically disaggregated data, I show that residential investment is more responsive to these shocks than consumption, as measured by elasticities and the implied contributions to GDP growth. I develop a structural life-cycle model featuring multiple types of housing investment to understand the large responses of residential investment. Consistent with the microdata, the model generates lumpy debt accumulation, lumpy housing investment and a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2103

Journal Article
At the Richmond Fed: Community Conversations

When Tom Barkin became president of the Richmond Fed in 2018, he made it his goal to spend time in every part of the Fifth District to stay well-informed about its communities. (See "Learning From Our District,") One of the ways the Richmond Fed's research department supports this goal is through an event series known as Community Conversations. These are one- or two-day road trips to visit with business and community leaders and learn about an area's challenges and successes.
Econ Focus , Volume 23 , Issue 2Q , Pages 13

Working Paper
Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings

A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to bound the true response without directly addressing the identification challenge. A leading example of this practice is the literature on the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity. We prove by counterexample that this practice is invalid in general, whether the data generating process is a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2223

Discussion Paper
What Do Banks Do with All That \\"Fracking\\" Money?

Banks play a crucial role in the economy by channeling funds from savers to borrowers. The ability of banks to accomplish this intermediation has become an important element in understanding the causes and consequences of business cycles. In a recent staff report, I investigate how a positive deposit windfall translates into investments by banks. This post, the first of two, shows how the development of new energy resources has led to deposit inflows to banks and how that can be used to estimate banks? investment decisions over the recent business cycle. The second post will look at factors ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141201

Working Paper
Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle

I estimate a medium-scale New-Keynesian model and relax the conventional assumption that the central bank adopted an active monetary policy by pursuing inflation and output stability over the entire post-war period. Even after accounting for a rich structure, I find that monetary policy was passive prior to the Volcker disinflation. Sunspot shocks did not represent quantitatively relevant sources of volatility. By contrast, such passive interest rate policy accommodated fundamental productivity and cost shocks that de-anchored inflation expectations, propagated via self-fulfilling inflation ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-035

Working Paper
Monetary Policy with Racial Inequality

I develop a heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model featuring racial inequality in income and wealth, and studies interactions between racial inequality and monetary policy. Black and Hispanic workers gain more from accommodative monetary policy than White workers mainly due to higher labor market risks. Their gains are larger also because of a larger proportion of them are hand-to-mouth, while wealthy White workers gain more from asset price appreciation. Monetary and fiscal policies are substitutes in providing insurance against cyclical labor market risks. Racial minorities gain even more ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 070

Working Paper
Credit, bankruptcy, and aggregate fluctuations

We ask two questions related to how access to credit affects the nature of business cycles. First, does the standard theory of unsecured credit account for the high volatility and procyclicality of credit and the high volatility and countercyclicality of bankruptcy filings found in U.S. data? Yes, it does, but only if we explicitly model recessions as displaying countercyclical earnings risk (i.e., rather than having all households fare slightly worse than normal during recessions, we ensure that more households than normal fare very poorly). Second, does access to credit smooth aggregate ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-31

Discussion Paper
Are College Towns Recession Proof?

Research universities bring a variety of benefits to their surrounding communities such as a supply of highly skilled graduates, innovation via research and development activities, and a large stable employer. But do research universities make their communities resilient to economic downturns? In a recent working paper, we attempt to answer this question by examining the unemployment rates for counties containing state flagship universities over the past three national recessions.
Regional Matters

Working Paper
Can Intangible Capital Explain Cyclical Movements in the Labor Wedge?

Intangible capital is an important factor of production in modern economies that is generally neglected in business cycle analyses. We demonstrate that intangible capital can have a substantial impact on business cycle dynamics, especially if the intangible is complementary with production capacity. We focus on customer capital: the capital embodied in the relationships a firm has with its customers. Introducing customer capital into a standard real business cycle model generates a volatile and countercyclical labor wedge, due to a mismeasured marginal product of labor. We also provide new ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-2

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Foote, Christopher L. 4 items

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