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Journal Article
Slower GDP Growth and Falling Inflation in U.S. Economic Outlook for 2024
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2023-11-28)
The U.S. macroeconomic outlook calls for real GDP growth to slow sharply but remain positive in 2024 and for inflation pressures to continue easing.
The Regional Economist

Discussion Paper
Who Pays the Tax on Imports from China?
Nattinger, Michael; Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-11-25)
Tariffs are a form of taxation. Indeed, before the 1920s, tariffs (or customs duties) were typically the largest source of funding for the U.S. government. Of little interest for decades, tariffs are again becoming relevant, given the substantial increase in the rates charged on imports from China. U.S. businesses and consumers are shielded from the higher tariffs to the extent that Chinese firms lower the dollar prices they charge. U.S. import price data, however, indicate that prices on goods from China have so far not fallen. As a result, U.S. wholesalers, retailers, manufacturers, and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191125

Journal Article
Decoupling Where it Matters? US Imports from China in Critical Sectors
Leibovici, Fernando; Dunn, Jason (2024-01-19)
The US has decreased its dependence on imports from China, dropping 7.7 percentage points in the share of total imports since 2017. Critical goods in communications and information technology have been most affected.
Economic Synopses , Issue 1 , Pages 3 pages

Discussion Paper
The Evolution of Mexico’s Merchandise Trade Balance
Klitgaard, Thomas; Scanlan, Susannah (2018-02-21)
Mexico runs a trade surplus with the United States owing to oil exports and cross-border supply chains, with imported U.S. components assembled in Mexico and then exported back to the United States. At the same time, Mexico runs a large trade deficit with Asia, the result of a surge of imports from that region over the past two decades. From Mexico’s perspective, this growing deficit with Asia has worked to offset an increasing trade surplus with the United States. More recently, the country’s merchandise balance suffered a substantial deterioration with the collapse of petroleum prices ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180221

Blame higher U.S. equity prices for recent moves in U.S. external liabilities
Davis, J. Scott (2024-11-12)
The U.S. net foreign asset position—the value of foreign assets held by U.S. residents minus the value of U.S. assets held by foreign residents—has fallen sharply since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
Dallas Fed Economics

Discussion Paper
At the N.Y. Fed: The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?
Rouxel-Laxton, Valérie; Rey, Helene; Bertoldi, Moreno; Pesenti, Paolo (2016-06-03)
On April 18, 2016, the New York Fed hosted a conference on current and future policy directions for the linked economies of Europe and the United States. “The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?”—organized jointly with the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the European Commission—brought together U.S. and Europe-based policymakers, regulators, and academics to discuss a series of important issues: Are the economies of the euro area and the United States on a convergent or divergent path? Are financial regulatory reforms making the banking and financial structures ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160603

Journal Article
Mexico, U.S. and China offer an evolving ‘triangular’ trade relationship
Orrenius, Pia M. (2025-03-03)
Enrique Dussel Peters, a professor at the Graduate School of Economics at the Universidad Nacional Autonóma de México and coordinator of the university’s Center for Chinese–Mexican Studies, discusses trade flows between the U.S., Mexico and China and their prospects.
Southwest Economy

Discussion Paper
How Have the Euro Area and U.S. Labor Market Recoveries Differed?
Klitgaard, Thomas (2022-03-30)
The initial phase of the pandemic saw the euro area and U.S unemployment rates behave quite differently, with the rate for the United States rising much more dramatically than the euro area rate. Two years on, the rates for both regions are back near pre-pandemic levels. A key difference, though, is that U.S. employment levels were down by 3.0 million jobs in 2021:Q4 relative to pre-pandemic levels, while the number of euro area jobs was up 600,000. A look at employment by industry shows that both regions had large shortfalls in the accommodation and food services industries, as expected. A ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220330

U.S. battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid EV bust
Plante, Michael D.; Abimbola, Adefemi; Patel, Kunal; Tseng, Isabelle (2026-03-03)
With demand for electric vehicles failing to meet ambitious projections, automakers, battery companies and utilities are reassessing how best to deploy battery power.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Has the opioid crisis peaked in Texas and the U.S.?
Dixon, Ethan; Orrenius, Pia M. (2025-11-10)
After years of mounting deaths and costs from opioid addition, recent declines in both Texas and the nation suggest the worst may have passed.
Southwest Economy

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