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Working Paper
Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions
Price, Brendan M.; Coglianese, John M. (2020-10-07)
Joblessness is highly seasonal. To analyze how households adapt to seasonal joblessness, we introduce a measure of seasonal work interruptions premised on the idea that a seasonal worker will tend to exit employment around the same time each year. We show that an excess share of prime-age US workers experience recurrent separations spaced exactly 12 months apart. These separations coincide with aggregate seasonal downturns and are concentrated in seasonally volatile industries. Examining workers most prone to seasonal work interruptions, we find that these workers incur large earnings losses ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-084

Working Paper
Earnings Business Cycles: The Covid Recession, Recovery, and Policy Response
Splinter, David; Larrimore, Jeff; Mortenson, Jacob (2023-01-06)
Using a panel of tax data, we follow the earnings of individuals over business cycles. Compared to prior recessions, the Covid policy response and recovery were far more progressive. Among workers starting in the bottom quintile, median real earnings including fiscal relief increased 66 percent in 2020 and earnings increases offset relief decreases in the 2021 recovery. After the prior two recessions, this measure had decreased by 24 percent. Among those starting in the top quintile, median and average real earnings were approximately unchanged. This difference from prior recessions is ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-004

Journal Article
Did the $600 Unemployment Supplement Discourage Work?
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Valletta, Robert G. (2020-09-21)
People receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the COVID-19 recession were entitled to $600 of additional payments per week through July. This large increase in benefit payments raised a concern that recipients would delay returning to work. However, analysis suggests that the available aid would not outweigh the value of a longer-term stable income in workers’ decisions to accept job offers. Evidence from recent labor market outcomes confirms that the supplemental payments had little or no adverse effect on job search.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 28 , Pages 01-05

Working Paper
Effects of extended unemployment insurance benefits: evidence from the monthly CPS
Fujita, Shigeru (2011)
This paper attempts to quantify the effects of extended unemployment insurance benefits in recent years. Using the monthly Current Population Survey, I estimate unemployment-to-employment (UE) hazard function and unemployment-to-inactivity (UN) hazard function for male workers. The estimated hazard functions for the period of 2004-2007, during which no extended benefits were available, exhibit patterns consistent with the expiration of regular benefits at 26 weeks. These patterns largely disappear from the hazard functions for the period of 2009-2010, during which largescale extended benefits ...
Working Papers , Paper 10-35

Journal Article
Unemployment in Canada and the United States: the role of unemployment insurance benefits
Moorthy, Vivek (1989-01)
Quarterly Review , Volume 14 , Issue Win , Pages 48-61

Journal Article
Rethinking the value of initial claims as a forecasting tool
McConnell, Margaret M. (1998-11)
The weekly numbers on initial claims for unemployment insurance convey key information about the labor market. But how reliable are claims in predicting changes in the much anticipated monthly employment report? According to a simple forecasting model, claims consistently send an accurate signal about employment during recessions but not during expansions.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 4 , Issue Nov

Report
When the tide goes out: unemployment insurance trust funds and the Great Recession, lessons for and from New England
Weiner, Jennifer (2012)
The unemployment insurance (UI) program is a federal-state program aiming to: (1) provide temporary, partial compensation for the lost earnings of individuals who become unemployed through no fault of their own and (2) serve as a stabilizer during economic downturns by injecting additional resources into the economy in the form of benefit payments. Each state, plus the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, operates its own UI program within federal guidelines. ; Since the onset of the Great Recession in late 2007, two-thirds of state UI programs depleted their trust funds ...
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 12-1

Newsletter
The ins and outs of unemployment insurance
El-Ghazaly, Hoda S. (2010-11)
Although the economy is rebounding, the unemployment rate remains high and private sector job gains remain weak. economists debate whether extending unemployment benefits keep unemployment artificially high by discouraging work.
Liber8 Economic Information Newsletter , Issue November

Working Paper
Reservation Benefits: Assessing job acceptance impacts of increased UI payments
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas (2020-08-04)
Job acceptance decisions weigh the value of an entire job spell relative to remaining unemployed. There exists a reservation level of beneﬁt payments in this dynamic decision problem at which an individual is indifferent between accepting and refusing an offer. This reservation beneﬁt is a simple statistic to test the job acceptance deterrence effects of current unemployment insurance (UI) payments, summarizing the decision problem conditional on the believed state of the labor market and the weeks of UI compensation remaining. Estimating the reservation beneﬁt for a wide range of US ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-28

Journal Article
If you lost your job …
Clement, Douglas (2006-06)
Intuition and conventional economic models suggest that unemployment benefits should decline over time to induce unemployed workers to seek jobs.
The Region , Volume 20 , Issue Jun , Pages 34-37, 50-53

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