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Conference Paper
Monetary policy and uncertainty : adapting to a changing economy : general discussion : overview panel
Knight, Malcolm D. (2003)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
The Economic Effects of Firm-Level Uncertainty: Evidence Using Subjective Expectations
Fiori, Giuseppe; Scoccianti, Filippo (2021-06-28)
This paper uses over two decades of Italian survey data on business managers' expectations to measure subjective firm-level uncertainty and quantify its economic effects. We document that firm-level uncertainty persists for a few years and varies across firms' demographic characteristics. Uncertainty induces long-lasting economic effects over a broad array of real and financial variables. The source of uncertainty matters with firms responding only to downside uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about future adverse outcomes. Economy-wide uncertainty, constructed aggregating firm-level ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1320

Working Paper
Microeconomic uncertainty, international trade, and aggregate fluctuations
Kaboski, Joseph P.; Alessandria, George; Choi, Horag; Midrigan, Virgiliu (2014-09-30)
The extent and direction of causation between micro volatility and business cycles are debated. We examine, empirically and theoretically, the source and effects of fluctuations in the dispersion of producer-level sales and production over the business cycle. On the theoretical side, we study the expect of exogenous first- and second-moment shocks to producer-level productivity in a two-country DSGE model with heterogeneous producers and an endogenous dynamic export participation decision. First-moment shocks cause endogenous fluctuations in producer-level dispersion by reallocating ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-30

Speech
Monetary policy under uncertainty
Bernanke, Ben S. (2007)
a speech at the 32nd Annual Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (via videoconference)
Speech , Paper 327

Speech
Acknowledging Uncertainty, 10-07-2016; Shadow Open Market Committee Fall Meeting, New York, NY
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-10-07)
I would like to share my perspective as someone who has participated in some of those policy decisions. I will comment on how I approach monetary policymaking in an uncertain world, review the types of uncertainty policymakers and economists need to deal with, and provide some recommendations for improving monetary policy communications. Of course, the views I?ll present today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.
Speech , Paper 77

Working Paper
Uncertainty and fiscal cliffs
Davig, Troy A.; Foerster, Andrew T. (2014-04-01)
Motivated by the US Fiscal Cliff in 2012, this paper considers the short- and longer- term impact of uncertainty generated by fiscal policy. Empirical evidence shows increases in economic policy uncertainty lower investment and employment. Investment that is longer-lived and subject to a longer planning horizon responds to policy uncertainty with a lag, while capital that depreciates more quickly and can be installed with few costs falls immediately. A DSGE model incorporating uncertainty over future tax regimes produces responses to fiscal uncertainty that match key features of the data. The ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 14-4

Working Paper
The effects of expectations on perception: experimental design issues and further evidence
Williams, Tyler (2007)
Numerous studies have found that top-down processes can affect perceptions. This study examines some of the issues involved in designing field experiments aimed at discovering whether top-down mental processes affect perceptions, and, if so, how the influence takes place. Lee, Frederick, and Ariely (2006) (LFA) attempt to go further by testing whether expectations affect perception directly, by altering how sensory receptors and/or the brain?s processing centers interpret a outside stimulus?or indirectly, for example, by changing the amount of attention paid to the outside stimulus. In order ...
Working Papers , Paper 07-14

Working Paper
Do uncertainty and technology drive exchange rates?
Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo (2009)
This paper investigates the extent to which technology and uncertainty contribute to fluctuations in real exchange rates. Using a structural VAR and bilateral exchange rates, the author finds that neutral technology shocks are important contributors to the dynamics of real exchange rates. Investment-specific and uncertainty shocks have a more restricted effect on international prices. All three disturbances cause short-run deviations from uncovered interest rate parity.
Working Papers , Paper 09-20

Working Paper
Fiscal volatility shocks and economic activity
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Kuester, Keith; Guerron-Quintana, Pablo (2011)
The authors study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal deficits and public debt have risen sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. While these developments make fiscal consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, the authors first estimate tax and spending processes for the U.S. that allow for time-varying volatility. They then feed these processes into an otherwise standard New ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-32

Working Paper
Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Comment
Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.; Richter, Alexander W.; de Groot, Oliver (2017-05-19)
Basu and Bundick (2017) show a second moment intertemporal preference shock creates meaningful declines in output in a sticky price model with Epstein and Zin (1991) preferences. The result, however, rests on the way they model the shock. If a preference shock is included in Epstein-Zin preferences, the distributional weights on current and future utility must sum to 1, otherwise it creates an asymptote in the response to the shock with unit intertemporal elasticity of substitution. When we change the preferences so the weights sum to 1, the asymptote disappears as well as their main ...
Working Papers , Paper 1706

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